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Week 13 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 14. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) [Total: 42.5]
Best Bet: Texans +4.5
All of a sudden, the Texans find themselves in the thick of the AFC South race. Capturing a third division crown is a real possibility for Houston, given how well the team's defense is playing. Since Week 8, the Texans have allowed opposing offenses to generate positive EPA on just 35.8% of their plays, a mark that leads the NFL by more than 2 percentage points.
That could spell trouble for a Kansas City offense that has hit a bit of a skid following its third loss since the start of November. Over that span, the Chiefs have failed to cover four consecutive games as the favorite, due largely to an inability to find the endzone. Their 22.5% touchdown drive rate ranks 16th, while their positive EPA rate has fallen from atop the league to just outside of the top 10.
That will make covering more than a field goal spread a difficult proposition, even at home, given the Chiefs' difficulties in their prior two matchups against much lesser defenses.
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (-3) [Total: 53.5]
Best Bet: Cowboys +3
The Cowboys and Lions are trending in very different directions. Dallas is coming off a convincing win against the Chiefs, and Detroit is fresh off a disappointing home loss to the Packers. And the Lions came out of that game with some key injuries, including to star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who left early and did not return. Head coach Dan Campbell called it a “day-to-day thing” moving forward.
That leaves the Lions with very little depth at receiver, already without Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond. Jameson Williams and rookie Isaac Teslaa are the lone remaining top pass catchers.
Perhaps most troubling for Detroit is the matchup along the interior. Quinnen Williams has been an absolute force since joining the Cowboys, logging the best PFF run-defense grade in the NFL and producing three straight 22%-plus pressure rates. For context, Williams' best pressure rate with the Jets was around 10%. Likewise, Osa Odighizuwa and Kenny Clark are each grading in the quartile among defensive tackles.
The Lions are decimated on the interior. Center Trystan Colon owns a 43.0 PFF pass-blocking grade, and guards Kayode Awosika and Tate Ratledge aren't far ahead, at 51.5 and 46.1, respectively. All of these grades are in the bottom 10th percentile among pass blockers, which could spell trouble for the Lions with Williams lurking.
On the flipside, Detroit plays the most man coverage in the NFL, magnifying the importance of the skill differential between wide receivers and cornerbacks, and they are no match for the Cowboys‘ duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, giving Dallas a clear path to put up points.
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