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Week 14 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 15. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) vs. New England Patriots [Total: 49]
Best Bet: Patriots ML (-105)
The Bills open as slight favorites on the road — a bit of surprise after the Bengals battled them hard until the end in Buffalo in Week 14. Quarterback Josh Allen and company needed to overcome a late 10-point deficit to secure the win, holding just a 16.2% win probability with just over five minutes in regulation, per Next Gen Stats.
Now they face a Patriots team that handed them their first loss of the year back in Week 5 — their first regular-season defeat in Buffalo since Week 10 of the 2023 season. To make matters worse, New England hasn’t lost a home game since September, riding a five-game win streak in Foxborough.
The Patriots are chasing their first AFC East crown since 2019. Since Week 10, they have registered top-five marks in scoring drive rate on both offense (47.6%, sixth) and defense (28.2%, fifth). Comparatively, the Bills, over the same span, fall outside of the top 10 in scoring drive efficiency on offense (42.0%, 11th) and below the league average on defense (40%, tied 18th).
The trends don't paint this as a favorable spot for the Bills to be laying points, either. With the Patriots coming off their Week 14 bye, Buffalo is in its fourth matchup of the year with a rest disadvantage, a scenario in which the team hasn't managed to cover this season (0-3 against the spread). Additionally, laying points on the road has been a difficult task for the Bills, who hold a 3-3 record against the spread in those situations, having lost two of their past three road matchups outright as the favorite.
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals [Total: 52.5]
Best Bet: Bengals ML (+120)
The Bengals looked to be in control against the Bills in Week 14 before a pick-six flipped the game on its head and fueled Buffalo's comeback victory. But that was one fluky play, and there is likely more signal in the rest of the game, during which Cincinnati's offense continued to click and put up points in bunches.
Even with the brutal interception, Burrow earned a terrific 82.2 PFF overall grade while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt. The Bengals' offense is back and should project as one of the league's best moving forward. They now face a Ravens defense they just beat up on Thanksgiving night — and one that allowed a season-best game to 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers (0.20 EPA per play and 8.3 yards per attempt).
For the Ravens' offense, quarterback Lamar Jackson struggled, throwing for only 5.8 yards per attempt and completing half his passes for -0.01 EPA per play. Jackson has simply not been the same player in 2025, and he is now staring down career lows in every category as his scramble rate has plummeted. The market, I think, has yet to catch up to the direction these teams are moving in, and there is some value early in the week with the Bengals at +120.
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