The defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers find their dream of an improbable repeat still very much alive, and may well be the best team left at this point. They will host the New York Giants in a game that will cast many minds back not to the first game between the two sides this season, but to an NFC Championship game back in 2007. That game in frigid Lambeau ended Brett Favre’s tenure with Green Bay on an ugly interception and thrust Aaron Rodgers on an unsuspecting NFL landscape.
Rodgers is now a Super Bowl MVP, and he will go head-to-head with another in the form of Eli Manning in this game. Manning has been quietly having a stellar season and unlike the quarterbacks everybody is talking about, is doing so behind some extremely suspect protection from an O-line badly in need of reconstruction. The Packers are the heavy favorites as the one-loss team, but there may not be a hotter side in the league right now than the New York Giants who are hitting form in a way that is looking a lot like their 2007 run which involved going through Green Bay and eventually toppling undefeated New England in the Super Bowl.
The Packers may no longer be undefeated, but they will have to recognize the giant-killing potential of New York, especially given how close their first meeting was.
Last Meeting: Green Bay 38 – New York 35 (Week 13)
This game centered around several crucial reviews and close calls, with the Giants coming out on the wrong side of all of them. Early in the game, New York thought they had scored a touchdown to tight end Jake Ballard, but he was ruled out of bounds even though replay suggested the call could well have been reversed. That score would have given the Giants a 14-7 lead, but instead they had to settle for a field goal, and the game eventually came down to just a three-point differential. Rodgers had an excellent game, making crucial plays when he needed to and eventually came away with the win, which, at the time, kept the undefeated streak alive. On the other side, Manning may have racked-up 347 yards and three touchdowns, but he was definitely second-best on the day. His pick six was a poor play read well by Clay Matthews, and Manning has been far better since. Victor Cruz put up 119 yards on seven catches as the Giants receiving duo combined for 207 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the game.
Victor Cruz vs. Charles Woodson
Cruz (+9.8 receiving) has been dominant this season. The sophomore receiver has accounted for 1,536 yards; breaking the Giants single-season receiving record and only three other receivers this year have scored more than his nine touchdowns. Despite these gaudy numbers, Cruz operates from the slot more than most big-number receivers with 62.3% of his snaps coming from that position. Charles Woodson (+2.8 coverage) covers the slot for the Packers and these two figure to see a lot of each other in this game. Woodson made the Pro Bowl this season in a typical display of name recognition over performance, and he has allowed 62% of throws into his coverage on the season to be completed. Woodson allowed seven receptions on the eight throws that came his way in the first meeting with the Giants, and Cruz caught all three passes when challenging Woodson’s coverage–albeit without gaining significant yardage. Since that game, we've seen several times the explosive skills Cruz possesses and the way he can turn a simple short reception from the slot into a game-breaking sprint to the end zone. Woodson will need to be at his best to limit the big play threat of Cruz, otherwise the Packers might find themselves in a shootout with a team that can match them.
Jason Pierre-Paul vs. Chad Clifton
In the first game, Jason Pierre-Paul (+12.4 pass rushing) was able to get the better of Marshall Newhouse (-21.3 pass blocking) all day long at left tackle. ‘Getting the better of’ is putting it very kindly, and a more accurate description would be he gave him a good old-fashioned butt-whoopin'. Newhouse surrendered a sack, three hits and five more pressures on the day, ending up with a disastrous PFF grade of -12.4 after all was said and done. Pierre-Paul racked up three knockdowns of Rodgers, six more pressures, and a pair of batted passes as he was a constant thorn in Green Bay's side all day. This time he is not going to get the benefit of a rematch against Newhouse, but he will see the old Packers stalwart, Chad Clifton. The veteran’s experience likely leaves him better equipped than Newhouse to deal with a phenom like Pierre-Paul, but despite playing just 309 snaps this season, Clifton has an extremely poor pass protection grade of -8.6. Clifton was at fault for 22 total pressures this season, but only two sacks and five hits. He is likely to be an upgrade over Newhouse, but the question is whether he will be enough of one to prevent the Giants’ star pass-rusher from imposing himself on this game and dominating around the edge on Rodgers’ blindside.
Antrel Rolle vs. Green Bay Slot Receivers
The Giants have done a few things this season to cover the slot receivers, but benching Prince Amukamara forced them to go back to Antrel Rolle, a safety by trade. Rolle has always been far more mouth than production, and as he continues to give a never-ending stream of sound bytes to various media outlets before the game, he is going to have a very real problem containing the explosive Packers receivers. Rolle has allowed a massive 75% of all passes into his coverage to be completed this season, for 642 yards and three touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks have a rating of 102 when throwing at him, and Rodgers is throwing a ridiculous 122.7 QB rating all season long, so just think what he will do. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of Rolle’s numbers is that he allowed 40.3% of his yardage after the catch, suggesting that his coverage has been anything but tight. His woeful -12.5 PFF coverage grade backs that up, and if there’s one thing the Green Bay receivers can do well, it’s run after the catch. The Top 5 Packers receivers have combined for 1,365 yards after the catch this season and they will be looking to exploit the coverage of Rolle and make heavy inroads into the New York secondary after every reception. Whether Rolle can up his game as a slot defender and limit his mistakes in coverage is going to be key to slowing down a Green Bay passing attack that can move the ball at will and pick apart a weak link if they see one.
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