The West has reigned supreme through four weeks of the 2021 NFL season. No team in either the AFC West or the NFC West is below .500, and those eight squads have combined for a 22-10 record.
PFF’s simulations, which can be found on the NFL Power Rankings page, currently handicap the Arizona Cardinals (49%) and the Kansas City Chiefs (33%) as the two favorites to win those divisions. But numbers can change quickly, as we saw last week with Arizona knocking off the Los Angeles Rams.
This week kicks off with another NFC West heavyweight bout Thursday night.
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LAR @ SEA | NYG @ ATL | MIA @ TB | NO @ WFT | PHI @ CAR | NE @ HOU | GB @ CIN | TEN @ JAX | DEN @ PIT | DET @ MIN | CLE @ LAC | CHI @ LV |
SF @ ARZ | NYG @ DAL| BUF @ KC | IND @ BAL
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Matchup to watch: WR Cooper Kupp vs. CB Ugo Amadi
PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart projects Kupp for 35 snaps against Amadi in the slot — a matchup Seattle can’t be feeling all that confident in.
Kupp has been one of the league’s most productive wide receivers through four weeks regardless of alignment. He ranks third in the NFL in receiving yardage (431) and first in receiving touchdowns (five) while being targeted on 33% of his routes by Matthew Stafford. On the other side, Amadi has earned just a 38.6 coverage grade on 87 snaps. It’s a matchup that shouldn’t slow Kupp’s hot start to the year.
Biggest Storyline: Can the Rams capitalize on their advantage in the trenches?
Aaron Donald has routinely torched the Seahawks' offensive line throughout his career, something that’s hardly exclusive to Seattle. Donald has once again won his pass rushes at a higher rate (24.4%) than every other interior defensive lineman in the NFL this year.
Lowest pressure rate at quarterback | 2021 season
| Quarterback | Pressure Rate |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21% |
| Tom Brady | 25% |
| Matthew Stafford | 25% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 26% |
| Kyler Murray | 27% |
The bigger surprise thus far is just how well Los Angeles’ offensive line has limited pressure. Stafford has been under pressure on only 25% of his dropbacks this season, the third-lowest mark in the league through four weeks. It would be a surprise if Seattle’s pass rush, which has generated pressure just 29% of the time (28th), gets to him consistently in this game.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 54.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Matchup to watch: WR Corey Davis vs. CB A.J. Terrell
There aren’t an overwhelming number of positives to take away from Atlanta’s 1-3 start to the season, but the play of their second-year cornerback is one of them. Terrell has allowed just four completions and 32 passing yards into his coverage across three games entering Week 5.
The majority of Terrell’s snaps have come at left cornerback, meaning he should see several Jets wide receivers on the outside. Davis represents the most compelling matchup, though he has struggled with drops early in his time with New York. Davis’ four drops are tied for the most by a wide receiver through four weeks.
Biggest Storyline: Matt Ryan and Zach Wilson are both coming off their best performances of the season in Week 4
Entering Week 4, Ryan and Wilson ranked 27th and 28th, respectively, in PFF grade out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. It was not the start to the season that either franchise anticipated as they introduced new offensive schemes orchestrated by Arthur Smith and Mike LaFleur.
Both quarterbacks had more success this past week when pushing the ball downfield, particularly Ryan. Atlanta’s veteran quarterback attempted just 20 passes that traveled 10-plus yards downfield across the first three weeks of the season. He attempted 19 in Week 4 alone, completing eight for 149 yards and two touchdowns with a 92.1 PFF passing grade.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 46. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
Matchup to watch: ED Emmanuel Ogbah vs. RT Tristan Wirfs
Ogbah’s 66 pressures in 2020 ranked third among edge defenders, but a 12.9% pass-rush win rate (50th at the position) indicated that a large number of those were of the unblocked and cleanup variety.
Ogbah 2020 vs. 2021 pass-rushing comparison
| Season | Pressure Rate | Pass-Rush Win Rate |
| 2020 | 13.3% | 12.9% |
| 2021 | 13.9% | 24.6% |
That hasn’t been the case early this season. Ogbah’s 24.6% pass-rush win rate through four weeks ranks fifth among qualifying edge rushers this season, behind only Maxx Crosby, Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett and Matthew Judon.
Ogbah will have his work cut out against Wirfs, who has already established himself as one of the NFL’s best right tackles. Wirfs’ 2.6% pressure rate allowed this season ranks fourth at the position.
Biggest Storyline: Can Miami overcome one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines?
The answer to this point in the season has been a resounding “no.” Jacoby Brissett has been under pressure on 43% of his dropbacks (second-highest), and he and Tua Tagovailoa have combined for a 45.8 passer rating under pressure.
The offensive line's failure to protect whichever quarterback is behind center has crippled an offense that needed to take a step forward in 2021. The Dolphins will look for Austin Jackson (37.6 pass-blocking grade) and Liam Eichenberg (47.0 pass-blocking grade) to improve if they're to contend for a playoff spot.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 48. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team (+2)
Matchup to watch: ED Cameron Jordan vs. RT Samuel Cosmi
Cosmi has rebounded nicely from his “Welcome to the NFL” moment against Joey Bosa in Week 1. He allowed a 15.4% pressure rate in that season opener against the Chargers but has since surrendered pressure on just 3.4% of his pass-blocking snaps. Jordan represents Cosmi’s toughest test since Bosa.
The veteran edge rusher hasn’t been quite as dominant this season as we’ve come to expect, but his 18 quarterback pressures are still a top-10 mark among edge rushers. He’ll pose a challenge for Cosmi not only as a pass rusher but also as a run defender, where Cosmi has excelled early as a rookie (85.3 run-blocking grade).
Biggest Storyline: Washington needs Taylor Heinicke to go back to playing mistake-free football
“No harm, no foul” is the mindset that typically gets associated with risky throws that end up falling incomplete, and Heinicke benefited from it in Week 4. His three dropped picks against the Falcons were tied for the most by any quarterback in a single game this season. Heinicke now has six turnover-worthy plays across Washington’s past two games (tied for most in the NFL) after recording zero such plays in his prior three appearances, dating back to the 2020 postseason.
Washington’s defense hasn’t played well enough this season for the offense to be putting it in bad situations with turnovers, and more giveaways are coming if Heinicke continues to be reckless with the football.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 44.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Matchup to watch: WR D.J. Moore vs. CB Darius Slay
The 24-year-old Moore has taken another step forward in his fourth season out of Maryland. He is being targeted on a career-high 29% of his routes through four weeks and has generated a career-high 115.0 passer rating on that increased target share. Philadelphia has to be on high alert when the ball gets into Moore's hands because few receivers in the league are better after the catch than him. His 50 forced missed tackles after the catch lead all wideout since 2018.
Slay will be a big part of the group tasked with slowing Moore down in this one. He has allowed just 106 yards into his coverage on 140 coverage snaps so far this season.
Biggest Storyline: Can Philadelphia gash the Panthers on the ground the same way Dallas did?
The Cowboys took control of their game last week against Carolina on the ground, averaging a league-high 6.7 yards per run play.
Most yards per designed run play | 2021 NFL Season
| Team | Yards per designed run play |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5.3 |
| Cleveland Browns | 4.8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4.7 |
The Eagles rank third in average yards per run play this season, behind only Dallas and Cleveland. Having a quarterback who poses a threat as a runner like Jalen Hurts along with an offensive line that can open up sizable running lanes at full strength gives the Eagles an opportunity to follow a similar blueprint on offense.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 45. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (+8.5)
Matchup to watch: WR BRANDIN COOKS vs. CB J.C. JACKSON
Cooks enters this matchup with New England with 38 targets. No other player on the team has more than 11 targets, and the player with 11 (Anthony Miller) was recently released by Houston. Cooks is option Nos. 1, 2 and 3 in the Texans’ passing attack. And despite Houston’s collective issues as a unit, Cooks has had individual success. His 3.1 receiving yards per route run rank third among all players with at least 100 routes.
On the other side, Jackson is now the clear No. 1 cornerback in New England following the Stephon Gilmore trade. Few at the position have been better than Jackson in terms of limiting production since he entered the NFL, as he has allowed a passer rating of just 50.1 into his coverage over the course of his career.
Biggest Storyline: All signs point to an unpleasant afternoon for Davis Mills
The “Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks” narrative has already been beaten into the ground. Just to bury it down there a little bit further, rookie quarterbacks have combined for a 64.3 passer rating against the Patriots since 2010. And Mills falls on the low end of the rookie quarterback spectrum after his first few NFL appearances.
Mills hasn’t been thrust into the best situation in Houston, but the third-round selection has managed just a 53.7 passing grade from a clean pocket. That’s the lowest mark among qualifiers by 10 points.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 39.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
Matchup to watch: Bengals wide receivers vs. Packers cornerbacks
There is concern that Jaire Alexander could miss significant time with a shoulder injury that he suffered last week against the Steelers. That’s bad news for a Packers cornerback room where the next three on the depth chart — Eric Stokes, Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan — all sport PFF coverage grades below 55.0 so far this season.
The Bengals are well suited to attack that potential weakness, especially with Tee Higgins returning to practice this week. Ja’Marr Chase has put a rough preseason behind him and looks every bit of a No. 1 option early in his rookie campaign. His 253 receiving yards against single coverage lead all wide receivers this season.
Biggest Storyline: Are Joe Burrow and the Bengals turning a corner?
The Bengals were supposed to beat Jacksonville last week. The fact that it took a last-second field goal could be seen as a negative. But it’s difficult not to come out of that game feeling positive about Burrow and the positive direction the offense is heading in.
“Just put it in my hands. It’s over.”
Joe Burrow was THAT confident at the end of TNF ????️ (via @NFLFilms) pic.twitter.com/5uTRn6x5tN
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2021
He seemingly has the “it” factor that teams long for at quarterback.
Burrow is coming off back-to-back games with PFF grades above 85.0. The Packers are the best team that Cincinnati has played this season, presenting a good measuring stick opportunity to see just how far Burrow and Cincinnati have come.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 50.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4)
Matchup to watch: DI Jeffery Simmons vs. LG Andrew Norwell
Norwell has been one of the more reliable guards in pass protection since he entered the NFL in 2014. He ranks in the 90th percentile at the position in PFF pass-blocking grade over the past seven-plus seasons, and he has allowed a pressure once every 39 pass-blocking snaps through four weeks this season (ninth among left guards).
Simmons hasn’t quite made the leap that many were expecting from him in his third season out of Mississippi State. Entering Week 5, his 68.9 PFF grade ranks just 34th among qualifying interior defensive linemen. But that doesn’t mean Simmons — an extremely talented player — won’t challenge Norwell in this game.
Biggest Storyline: How does Jacksonville respond to the continued controversy surrounding Urban Meyer?
Multiple apologies needing to be sent out by Week 5 of Meyer’s first season as head coach in Jacksonville is indicative of the Jaguars' tumultuous start to the 2021 season. Their defense has struggled to stop anybody (31st in EPA per play against), and the offense has too often put the defense in bad situations with turnovers (league-high nine turnovers through four weeks).
Trevor Lawrence is coming off a season-high 79.1 PFF grade last week in Cincinnati, and this is a matchup against Tennessee’s defense where he could continue that upward trajectory. But once again, he’ll have to overcome the dysfunction around him to do so.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 48.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
Matchup to watch: WR Diontae Johnson vs. CB Patrick Surtain II
There’s a chance this matchup doesn’t come to fruition, as Surtain’s status is up in the air after he exited last week’s game against the Ravens with a chest injury. However, it’s an intriguing matchup if both players see the field.
Johnson has been targeted on 32% of his routes this season for Pittsburgh, third among wide receivers behind only Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp. Even on a defunct Pittsburgh offense, his play has been a bright spot. Johnson is expected to see Surtain for much of the game, per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart. The rookie is coming off his worst game of the season against Baltimore, allowing seven catches on nine targets into his coverage.
Biggest Storyline: Both offenses dealing with questions at quarterback
Pittsburgh's quarterback situation is dire. The five lowest-graded passers in the NFL currently consist of three rookies, a backup and Ben Roethlisberger. His complete inability to navigate the pocket when pressure gets home has become an issue behind an offensive line that isn’t exactly an impenetrable wall. Roethlisberger has nearly as many sacks taken under pressure (10) as he does completions (12) to go along with a 0-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Denver’s quarterback situation is also a concern, but the team at least has an injury to point to. Teddy Bridgewater is in the concussion protocol, potentially pushing Drew Lock (29th in PFF grade at quarterback last season) back into the picture as the starting signal-caller.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 39.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-9)
Matchup to watch: TE T.J. Hockenson vs. LB Eric Kendricks
A lack of quality options at wide receiver has led to a tight end (Hockenson) and a running back (D’Andre Swift) pacing the team in targets. Unfortunately for Detroit, Minnesota has one of the better coverage defenders in the NFL at the linebacker position.
Kendricks ranks in the 97th percentile in “box” coverage grade and the 99th percentile in slot coverage grade among qualifying off-ball linebackers since 2019. He has allowed just a 74.9 passer rating into his coverage when matched up with a tight end over that same time frame. It’s a difficult matchup for Detroit’s top target.
Biggest Storyline: Detroit’s defense hasn’t offered much resistance this season
The Lions have played hard under first-year head coach Dan Campbell, finding themselves in several games that were expected blowouts. But this roster still has a long way to go. That's most clear on the defensive side of the ball.
Detroit ranks 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, ahead of only Jacksonville and Kansas City. The team's pass defense ranks dead last in EPA allowed per play, and the unit is fresh off paving the way for a season-best outing from a Chicago offense that has looked hapless for much of this season.
This is a get-right spot for Minnesota after it scored just seven points last week.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 49.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Matchup to watch: ED Myles Garrett vs. LT Rashawn Slater
Slater has faced off against quality edge rushers — Yannick Ngakoue and Montez Sweat among them — through his first four games, but Garrett has a strong case for being the most difficult edge rusher to block in the league right now. This will be a true test for the rookie, who has allowed pressure on just 3.4% of his pass-blocking snaps in 2021 (eighth at left tackle).
Garrett is one of three edge defenders with a pass-rush win rate over 20% since 2018, joining Joey Bosa and T.J. Watt. And his 28% pass-rush win rate this season is on pace to be the highest of his career. Very few tackles match up well with him on an island.
Biggest Storyline: Baker Mayfield needs to play better than he did against Minnesota for Cleveland to be legitimate AFC contenders
Mayfield’s 49.2 PFF grade last week against the Vikings was his lowest single-game mark since Week 6 of last season, and he managed that grade without a turnover-worthy play. His accuracy nearly cost Cleveland the game, as Mayfield missed a wide open Odell Beckham Jr. on several occasions. Some 39% of his passes were charted as uncatchable.
PFF’s simulations currently give the Browns a 16% chance to make the Super Bowl, but they’re not going to make it out of the AFC if Mayfield turns in many more of those performances.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 46.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
Matchup to watch: ED Khalil Mack vs. RT Alex Leatherwood
Leatherwood has run the gauntlet early this season with matchups against Joey Bosa, Emmanuel Ogbah, Justin Houston, T.J. Watt and Melvin Ingram III. That resulted in a 31.1 PFF grade entering Week 5, last among qualifying right tackles. Next on the list is PFF’s highest-graded edge defender since 2014.
Mack has started the season slowly, but he is beginning to pick up some steam with at least four pressures in each of the past two weeks. It’s difficult to imagine that trend won’t continue against Leatherwood and Las Vegas’ offensive line.
Biggest Storyline: How does Derek Carr respond after his worst performance of the season?
Carr recorded a PFF passing grade below 75.0 for the first time this season last week against the Chargers. He didn’t have nearly as much downfield success as he had in prior weeks. He completed just one of five passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield after going 12-of-22 for 371 yards and two touchdowns on such attempts across the season’s first three weeks.
The question now becomes whether Carr can bounce back from that down performance and work his way back into the MVP conversation that swung heavily in Kyler Murray’s favor last week.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 44.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Matchup to watch: LT Trent Williams vs. ED Chandler Jones
Initial reports are optimistic that Williams’ shoulder injury won’t keep him out of this big NFC West matchup against Arizona. That’s great news for the 49ers, given that Williams is on pace to be PFF’s highest-graded left tackle (93.7 overall) for the second consecutive season.
This particular matchup against Jones, who has lined up outside of left tackle on 71% of his snaps this season, is one of the better one-on-one duels the league has to offer. Jones’ 90.6 pass-rushing grade this season ranks third among qualifying edge rushers, and he’s recorded a pass-rush win rate of at least 15% against each of the starting left tackles he’s faced.
Biggest Storyline: Kyler Murray is making the leap to elite
PFF’s Seth Galina wrote earlier this week that the third-year development from Murray is driving Arizona’s 4-0 start to the season. Stylistically, there are plenty of similarities between this year’s Cardinals offense and the team's offenses of the past two seasons under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The difference has been Murray’s development (career-high 87.6 PFF grade) and the additions of Rondale Moore and A.J. Green, among others, to the offense, giving Arizona more weapons to spread defenses out and attack them.
The key for the Cardinals to remain legitimate NFC contenders will be sustaining that success throughout the year, which they weren’t able to do last season due in large part to Murray being hampered by injury.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 50. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Matchup to watch: WR Amari Cooper vs. CB James Bradberry
This was a matchup that was won handily by Bradberry and the Giants' defense in 2020. In two games against New York, Cooper caught just eight passes for 64 yards. He managed only four receptions for 25 yards with Bradberry as the primary coverage defender.
It’s difficult to hold Cooper down for too long, though. He has generated a 136.9 passer rating when targeted through the first four weeks of the 2021 season (fifth among players with at least 25 targets). Much like what Bradberry faced against Terry McLaurin in Week 2, Cooper is capable of creating separation at all levels of the field.
Biggest Storyline: Giants sit at 1-3 despite breakout season from Daniel Jones
It probably comes as a surprise that the Giants rank among the top 10 offenses in the NFL in EPA per play through the first four weeks of this season. The issue is that they should probably rank even higher given how well Jones has played to start the year.
The young quarterback enters this matchup against Dallas ranked fifth in PFF grade at the position. He has had a lot of success in the intermediate range (10 to 19 yards downfield) with a league-high 33 completions and has taken better care of the football than in years past with a turnover-worthy play on just 2.2% of his dropbacks. He has played well enough for the Giants to contend in the NFC East, even if their record doesn’t reflect that.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 52. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Matchup to watch: WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce vs. Bills coverage unit
The Bills can’t allow Hill and Kelce to run wild on their secondary in the same fashion the duo did in last year’s AFC Championship game. They combined for 22 receptions, 290 yards and two touchdowns by themselves in that contest.
Part of that is how Buffalo chooses to defend, not traveling its cornerbacks with opposing receivers. That allows the Chiefs to move Hill and Kelce into the slot where they can avoid Tre’Davious White and attack the Bills' defense over the middle of the field. Expect more of that in what could end up being a preview of the 2021 AFC Championship game.
Biggest Storyline: Where should the panic meter be on Kansas City’s defense?
The Chiefs are the only team in the NFL with a bottom-five mark in average yards allowed per run and pass play so far this season. They rank last in the league in EPA allowed per play by a comfortable margin.
Chiefs yards allowed per play | 2021 season
| Play type | Yards allowed per play |
| Run | 5.1 (32nd) |
| Pass | 7.3 (28th) |
A Patrick Mahomes-led offense is capable of sticking with any team in a shootout, but Kansas City has really been stressing that theory early on in 2021.
This could be a matchup where Steve Spagnuolo’s group bounces back, though. The Chiefs have run dime on 13% less of their snaps compared to last season, due in part to matchups with Cleveland and Baltimore (run-heavy offenses). The Bills fall on the other end of the spectrum, allowing Kansas City to get into more of their best personnel grouping on defense (dime).
The Over/Under for this game is currently 56.5. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Matchup to watch: Colts depleted OL vs. Baltimore’s defensive front
Chris Reed is filling in for Quenton Nelson at left guard, and Julie’n Davenport and Matt Pryor are battling it out at swing tackle to fill in for Braden Smith on the right side. Meanwhile, Eric Fisher has not looked 100% in his return from injury, earning just a 41.8 overall grade in his three starts this year. The result is an offensive line that is a far cry from the unit that has been one of the NFL’s best the past few years.
Wink Martindale will look to exploit the Colts’ weaknesses up front, with 35-year-old Calais Campbell leading the charge. Campbell’s 88.9 PFF grade through four weeks ranks fourth among interior defenders.
Biggest Storyline: No quarterback has pushed the ball downfield more this season than Lamar Jackson
Jackson’s MVP season in 2019 was built on the back of his ability to produce big plays both with his legs and his arm, and he’s actively seeking out those explosive passing plays again this season. Jackson’s 12.5-yard average depth of target represents the only aDOT over 10 yards by a quarterback this season. His 6.9% big-time throw rate ranks sixth at the position, sandwiched between Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.
That ability to gash defenses for big plays both on the ground and through the air makes Baltimore one of the AFC's most dangerous teams.
The Over/Under for this game is currently 46. PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.
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