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NFL Betting 2022: Surveying the division futures landscape after free agency's initial wave

Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates after a Buccaneers touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

So much has changed since we last discussed division futures — quarterbacks are on the move (mostly to the AFC), non-quarterback stars such as Tyreek Hill, Von Miller and Khalil Mack (among others) are changing teams and compensatory draft picks have been assigned. Heck, even the favorite to be the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft has changed significantly — changing from Evan Neal back to Aidan Hutchinson.  

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Now, we’re going to take another look at division futures to see if there’s any value. Check PFF soon for projected win totals for each team, as those markets should be open up soon.

Editor's Note: Odds are from DraftKings.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams: +160 (38% break-even probability, 36% implied probability)
San Francisco: +180 (36%, 33%)
Arizona: +300 (25%, 23%)
Seattle: +1000 (9%, 8%)

These have really not changed much, as the Rams' odds are getting a little longer while the 49ers and Cardinals’ are getting shorter. After trading Russell Wilson, the Seahawks, are now a long shot. It will be interesting to see when they are competitive again.

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NFC North

Green Bay: -175 (64%, 58%)
Minnesota: +275 (27%, 24%)
Chicago: +750 (12%, 11%)
Detroit: +1200 (8%, 7%)

The Packers were as low as about -160 before Aaron Rodgers returned, but they jumped to more than -200 before Davante Adams was traded. Now, they have about a 60% chance of repeating as the NFC North champion for the fourth-straight year. Previously at 18-1 to win the division earlier this offseason, Detroit is now 12-1, which is probably a value. 

NFC South

Tampa Bay: -280 (74%, 67%)
New Orleans: +450 (18%, 17%)
Atlanta: +1000 (9%, 8%)
Carolina: +1100 (8%, 8%)

The last time we wrote this article, Tom Brady was retired and the Bucs were about even money to win the NFC South in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history (they’ve never won any division in consecutive years). The Saints are probably going to have between an eight- or nine-win total when those come out while the Falcons and Panthers are a wasteland. Brady’s luck strikes again.


NFC East

Dallas: -115 (53%, 49%)
Philadelphia: +350 (22%, 20%)
Washington: +400 (20%, 18%)
New York Giants: +650 (13%, 12%)

The Cowboys were closer to -160 the last time we did this, but the markets have soured on them since they got rid of Amari Cooper, La’El Collins and others. The Giants' odds of a division title, interestingly, have increased along with their division counterparts. At 9-1, they were probably a value, as I think 13-2 would be fairer. 

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AFC West

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