Welcome to the Week 4 edition of the Offensive Matchup Report. Considering that we now have three weeks of data, I added a twist this week. After the player analysis, you’ll find a pair of projections and a pair of rankings. One set is conservative and one is bold. Both sets include a strength of schedule factor. The “bold” set refers to projections based on the defense data to full capacity. This means that if a team has been awful against the run so far, they are charged 100% for that. The conservative set is more reasonable. Three weeks is a small sample size, so I adjusted the “SoS” factor so it did not make as much of an impact. Take from each what you want. Enjoy.
QB UPGRADE
Dolphins Chad Henne vs. Chargers
First of all, it’s worth noting that the Dolphins are headed to San Diego for this one. Odds are that they’ll be playing from behind, which means quite a bit of throwing. We saw against the Patriots in Week 1 that they’re not afraid to go pass heavy when appropriate. Secondly, consider that the Chargers have surrendered six pass touchdowns in three games. Tom Brady was responsible for three of those in Week 2, but the others game from Donovan McNabb and Matt Cassel. In fact, McNabb and Cassel combined for only 45 drop backs and still managed to toss three touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks enjoy a completion percentage 7% above their average in their other two games. They also add 3.7% to their TD rate and subtract 1.7% from their INT rate.
Bold Projection: 21-of-33, 259 yards, 2.1 TD, 0.5 INT
Bold Ranking: QB # 5
Conservative Projection: 20-of-33, 245 yards, 1.4 TD, 0.8 INT
Conservative Ranking: QB # 12
QB DOWNGRADE
Jets Mark Sanchez vs. Ravens
The Jets are passing the ball quite a bit, which has moved Mark Sanchez into the QB1 discuss…most weeks. In Week 4, he’s taking on a Ravens defense that has been touch against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have seen drops of 4% in the completion percentage department, 1.3 in yards-per-completion, and 0.7% in TD rate. They’ve seen their INT rate increase by 3.4%. Sanchez will have trouble putting a dent in the 3:5 TD:INT ratio the Ravens pass defense has allowed this season.
Bold Projection: 20-of-35, 224 yards, 1.5 TD, 2.5 INT
Bold Ranking: QB # 25
Conservative Projection: 21-of-35, 242 yards, 1.5 TD, 1.4 INT
Conservative Ranking: QB # 20
RB UPGRADE
49ers Frank Gore or Kendall Hunter vs. Eagles
This one really depends on Frank Gore. If he is a full go, make sure you play him. If he doesn’t, get Hunter in your lineup. Desperate owners can also consider Anthony Dixon in their Flex if Gore is out. The Eagles defense has been very generous to opposing tailbacks and they are in transition at linebacker as we speak. Opposing running backs have racked up 105+ yards in all three games for a total of 406 yards and two scores vs. the Eagles this season. Additionally, opposing backs have hauled in 16 of 22 targets for another 188 yards and three scores. In the rushing department, that works out to a 1.5 increase over average in the YPC department and an addition of 1.1% to the TD rate. The Niners might be throwing a lot at Philly, but Gore or Hunter should still have plenty of success on a per-play basis.
Bold Projection: 14 carries, 70 yards, 0.5 TD, 2 receptions, 25 yards, 0.5 TD
Bold Ranking: PPR RB # 7
Conservative Projection: 13 carries, 49 yards, 0.4 TD, 3 receptions, 20 yards, 0.1 TD
Conservative Ranking: PPR RB # 25
RB DOWNGRADE
Packers James Starks vs. Broncos
With Ryan Grant likely out, many are on the James Starks bandwagon this weekend. First off, there are a few reasons to upgrade him. The obvious one is opportunity. He should approach 20 touches with Grant out. Secondly, is the fact that Green Bay should be ahead of Denver, which means more rushing attempts. That said, don’t confuse Denver for a poor run defense, because they haven’t been so far. The Raiders did tear them apart for 191 yards on 31 carries in Week 1, but Oakland has been tearing everyone apart on the ground. In their other two games, the Broncos allowed just 89 yards on 37 carries. Those games were against Cedric Benson and Chris Johnson. Over three games, no tailback has rushed for a score against Denver. Backs have seen a 0.4 drop in YPC and their TD rates have dropped by 4.4%.
Bold Projection: 17 carries, 69 yards, 0.1 TD, 2 receptions, 14 yards, 0.1 TD
Bold Ranking: PPR RB # 33
Conservative Projection: 17 carries, 70 yards, 0.8 TD, 2 receptions, 14 yards, 0.1 TD
Conservative Ranking: PPR RB # 20
WR UPGRADE
Seahawks Sidney Rice vs. Falcons
The Seattle offense isn’t much to be excited about, but Sidney Rice is a force when healthy and has a generous Week 4 matchup. The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts 40 catches, 515 yards, and two scores on only 56 targets in 2011. Those opposing wideouts enjoy a catch rate that is 18% higher when facing Atlanta – the highest mark in the league. The Atlanta defense does force a slightly lower YPR and TD rate, but PPR leaguers love a high catch rate. Rice has WR2 upside this week.
Bold Projection: 6 receptions, 71 yards, 0.2 TD
Bold Ranking: PPR WR # 19
Conservative Projection: 5 receptions, 58 yards, 0.2 TD
Conservative Ranking: PPR WR # 31
WR DOWNGRADE
Texans Andre Johnson vs. Steelers
Here’s a fine example of why I don’t call this a Sit/Start list. Plain and simple, you can’t sit your best wide receiver. Still, he’s in for a rough day at the office vs. Ike Taylor and the Steelers. Opposing teams have completed just 29 passes for 299 yards and one score on 55 targets to wide receivers against Pittsburgh this season. Of course, we are talking about the Ravens (who ran a ton while ahead) and the unintimidating Seahawks and Colts pass offenses. Still, those teams fared much better in other games. Opposing wideouts have seen a -3.7 change in YPR, -6.1% change in TD% and -2% change in catch rate over their season average when facing the Steelers this season. Johnson will see plenty of targets, but his YPR will suffer and touchdowns will be hard to come by.
Bold Projection: 7 receptions, 72 yards, 0.3 TD
Bold Ranking: PPR WR # 15
Conservative Projection: 7 receptions, 94 yards, 0.6 TD
Conservative Ranking: PPR WR # 3
TE UPGRADE
Titans Jared Cook vs. Browns
The Titans are expected to use Cook in the passing game more often now that Kenny Britt is done for the year. That’s not necessarily why he’s in this list, though. Opposing tight ends have hauled in 12 catches for 120 yards and two scores on 18 targets against Miami this season. That might not seem like much, but we’re talking about Jermaine Gresham, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Fasano – all of which are part of a struggling offense. The Browns defense has done a nice job slowing the YPR of opposing Tight Ends so far, but their TD rate allowed is 16.7% above those player’s season average – a league high. Additionally, opposing tight ends enjoy a boost of 7% in the catch rate department. Cook could be in for a big day if he runs a few extra pass routes.
Bold Projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, 0.8 TD
Bold Ranking: TE # 6
Conservative Projection: 3 receptions, 39 yards, 0.3 TD
Conservative Ranking: PPR TE # 17
TE DOWNGRADE
Falcons Tony Gonzalez vs. Seahawks
The Seattle defense has allowed 13 catches on 20 targets to opposing tight ends through three weeks, but those tight ends (led by Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, Todd Heap) have combined for just 123 yards and have failed to score. That works out to a 5.3 drop in YPR, 10% lower TD rate, and 21% decrease in catch rate. The YPR mark is the best in the league and the other two rank in the top five. Teams have been throwing to the tight end against Seattle this year quite a bit, but they’ve had a rough go of it. Gonzalez could be in for a struggle.
Bold Projection: 3 receptions, 21 yards, 0.1 TD
Bold Ranking: PPR TE # 23
Conservative Projection: 4 receptions, 47 yards, 0.4 TD
Conservative Ranking: PPR TE # 9
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