Fantasy: Week 11 Offensive Matchups

Welcome to the Week 11 edition of the Offensive Matchup Report.

Down below, you’ll find upgrades and downgrades at each of the primary fantasy football positions. After the player analysis, you’ll find that player’s ranking and projection for this weekend.

QB UPGRADE

Jets Mark Sanchez vs. Broncos

For the second week in a row, Mark Sanchez is our quarterback upgrade. He’ll take on a very generous Broncos defense that has allowed four 300+ passing games this season. They’ve surrendered 18 touchdowns through the air, while intercepting only six, five of which game in two games. The Jets’ defense should have a field day against the Broncos new option offense, which should provide strong field position all day. Sanchez is unlikely to hit 300 pass yards, but has a good chance to find the endzone more than once.

Projection: 18-of-31, 219 yards, 1.6 TD, 0.7 INT
Ranking: QB # 9

Others: Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick

QB DOWNGRADE

Chargers Philip Rivers vs. Bears

Although no quarterback has yet to throw for fewer than 213 yards against Chicago this season, the Bears do a nice job keeping opponents out of the endzone. They’ve allowed only six passing scores over their last six games after allowing six total to Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers during weeks two and three. After managing just four interceptions over their first six games, they have nine since, including a pair of four interception games. Chicago’s defense is on a roll and San Diego’s pass offense is struggling. It will be a tough day at the office for Rivers.

Projection: 24-of-39, 290 yards, 1.2 TD, 1.5 INT
Ranking: QB # 18

Others: Tim Tebow, Tony Romo

RB UPGRADE

Lions Maurice Morris vs. Panthers

We often talk about the Panthers struggles vs. the run, but they just continue to give up yardage and touchdowns on the ground to whichever team they happen to be facing that week. In week 10, struggling Chris Johnson was able to break out of his slump. The Titans backfield managed 149 yards and a rushing score on 33 carries and also put up 51 receiving yards on five receptions. The Panthers have now allowed 13 touchdowns to running backs, nine of which have come on the ground. They’ve also surrendered 100+ rushing yards to backs in eight of their nine games and 50+ receiving yards five times.

Projection: 14 carries, 67 yards, 0.5 TD, 3 receptions, 23 yards, 0.1 TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 16

Others: Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush

RB DOWNGRADE

Cardinals Beanie Wells vs. 49ers

Last week, Brandon Jacobs was up against the 49ers and he was our RB downgrade. He led the Giants’ backfield to 89 rushing yards, the most San Francisco has given up on the ground to a group of backs this season, but it came on 27 carries (3.3 YPC). This week, Wells will be the victim. He’ll be facing a defense that has allowed 522 rushing yards on 159 carries to backs this season (also 3.3 YPC). They’ve yet to allow a rushing touchdown. One item to keep an eye on, however, is running back production via the passing game. Over the last two weeks, backs have a ridiculous 25 receptions and 198 yards on 29 targets vs. San Francisco. Backs have been targeted 8+ times on five occasions this season vs. the 49ers.

Projection: 17 carries, 61 yards, 0.6 TD, 1 reception, 7 yards, 0.0 TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 23

Others: Chris Johnson, Roy Helu

WR UPGRADE

Bucs Mike Williams vs. Packers

If only because teams are forced to throw the ball a few extra times while trailing the Packers this season, it’s meant good things for opposing wide receivers. Wide receiver units have combined for 190+ receiving yards six times this season and have totaled 11 scores. The Packers did manage to hold the Vikings’ wideouts to 101 yards on nine completions in Week 10, but it’s safe to say that Williams is a more skilled player than Michael Jenkins. Tampa should trail for most of this one, allowing double-digit target potential for Williams.

Projection: 9 targets, 5 receptions, 60 yards, 0.4 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 19

Others: Dwayne Bowe, Donald Jones

WR DOWNGRADE

Chargers Vincent Jackson vs. Bears

Going hand in hand with the Philip Rivers downgrade this week is the decrease in value for Vincent Jackson. He will be taking on a Bears pass defense that has allowed only four touchdowns to wide receivers this season, only two of which have come over their last seven games. The Bears have held opposing wideout units to fewer than 200 receiving yards six times in nine games. The Lions’ wideouts put up 238 yards last week, but a lot of it came in garbage time and was on 37 targets. A touchdown will be hard to come by for Jackson – and Vincent Brown – this week.

Projection: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 66 yards, 0.3 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 25

Others: AJ Green, Greg Little

TE UPGRADE

Bucs Kellen Winslow vs. Packers

The Packers haven’t just been generous to opposing wide receivers; tight ends have had success as well. On the year, they’ve allowed five scores to the position in nine games. They’ve surrendered four or more catches seven times and 55+ yards six times, including in three of their last four games. A few of the “bad” games came against teams with good tight ends (CAR NO ATL SD), but they also allowed touchdowns to the tight end units in Chicago, Denver and Minnesota. Winslow should be in for one of his better games this season.

Projection: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 54 yards, 0.4 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 7

Others: Greg Olsen, Tony Gonzalez

TE DOWNGRADE

Bengals Jermaine Gresham vs. Ravens

On the other side of things, we have a tough match-up for Cincinnati’s Jermaine Gresham. For starters, Baltimore has yet to allow a tight end to score a touchdown this season. They’ve kept opposing tight ends under 15 yards three times in nine games and under 45 yards eight times. Their only rough patch was a six catch, 98 yard day from Heath Miller and the Steelers tight ends in Week 9. Gresham will have his hands full trying to produce fantasy points in Week 11.

Projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards, 0.3 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 16

Others: Jermichael Finley, Jake Ballard