It's hard to believe that there's just three more games left in the NFL playoffs (my fiancé just gave a big Pauly D fist pump as she read that). But all things must come to an end, and what a great ending it's shaping up to be. This week we have two classic cold weather games that feature four of the best defenses in the league. Because there's just two games this week and your salary cap choices are pretty limited, I'm only going to give you a player from each game. I'm actually going to revisit my regular season format here, and give you a deeper play and a must start. But first, let's look back at my picks from last week. Like the Wild Card weekend, I'd say I went 2 for 4. My picks of Danny Woodhead and James Starks were slightly off the mark. Woodhead did touch the ball 20 times for a serviceable 98 total yards, but failed to reach pay dirt. Starks had even more touches, finishing with 27, but only 56 total yards. I also gave you Hines Ward, who scored, and Jay Cutler, who had a huge day. He threw for 274 and two scores, and also ran for two scores. Depending on your scoring format, it's likely he led all QBs in fantasy scoring last week. Now, let's take a look forward to this week, and we'll start with the deeper play:
Green Bay @ Chicago: Jordy Nelson – Fantasy owners tend to think of Nelson as the fourth fiddle in the Green Bay WR corps. Not as many snaps as Donald Driver or Greg Jennings, not as explosive as James Jones. However, over Green Bay’s two games in this year’s playoffs, Nelson grades out the highest rated Packers WR at +3.4 overall. Last week he caught all 8 of his targets for 79 yards and a score. Though his 8 playoff receptions have not gone for much yardage (9.9 Yds/Rec), he has managed to find the end zone, which is something that Jennings and Driver cannot say.
While the Bears played well against the pass in the regular season and graded out with the 7th highest rating in coverage (+4.4), their performance last week gives me pause. Against the Seahawks, who recorded just 14 passing scores in the regular season, the Bears yield three TDs to WRs – two to Mike Williams and one to Brandon Stokely. In particular, Daniel Manning really hurt the Chicago secondary. Manning had a very solid regular season, grading out at +8.6 overall, but posted his lowest rating of the season in coverage (-1.1). Though I don’t expect a repeat of this performance from Manning, Matt Hasselbeck is no Aaron Rodgers. Look for Rodgers to spread the ball around in this one, and for Nelson to see his share of targets again this week. He makes for an interesting deep play that may give you a leg up on your league.
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh: LaDainian Tomlinson – Pittsburgh is never a fun matchup for RBs. In the regular season, the Steelers graded out as the 6th highest rated defense against the run (+81.7). They also gave up the least fantasy points to opposing RBs. But this is the playoffs, and anything can happen. I’m going out on a limb with this one and predicting a Jets upset in Pittsburgh. If they are to pull off a win, the Jets will need to be effective on the ground to take pressure off of Mark Sanchez. So Tomlinson will be instrumental to their success.
I love the way Tomlinson has performed thus far in the playoffs. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry, which is up from his 4.2 in the regular season, and he leads all RBs in the playoffs with 3 scores. Yes, Shonn Greene has seen more attempts than Tomlinson, but he’s done less with them. Greene averages 4.1 yards per carry, and found the end zone just once. Tomlinson is your guy here, and though he’s not going to save you a ton of salary cap room, he’s a must start.
If you have any questions, comments, or just want to talk football, feel free to hit me up on Twitter – @JeffRatcliffe – Good luck this weekend!
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