Just when fantasy owners thought football was officially back, we get the rug pulled out from under us. “You wanna hit ‘fooled' more. They *fooled* me Jerry! You see the difference?”
Hopefully this is just a speed bump and not a road block, so we press on with the next installment in the Third Season Production series and highlight the tight ends. There isn’t nearly the amount of tight ends compared to other positions, but chances are you’re only carrying two on your roster. And if your tight end is a monster, that’s really the only one you need except for the waiver wire pickup for your bye week.
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Click the link below to view the Excel report:
>>> Third Season TE Production <<<
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Percentages for a 16 team league, starting 1 TE
“Starters” were players ranked in the Top 16 at the end of the season.
“Backups” were players worthy of contributing to your fantasy team in a limited capacity.
“Rosterable” were players worthy of belonging on a fantasy roster.
“Minimal Contribution” were players on waivers who could be useful in case of emergencies (ex: injuries, byes, poor match-up).
“No Contribution” were players who could be found on waivers.
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Third Season Production, 2010: 17 Tight Ends
12% chance of owning a starter (2 players)
0% chance of owning a backup (0 players)
29% chance of minimal contribution in third season (5 players)
59% chance of no contribution in third season (10 players)
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Third Season Production, 2006 – 2010: 79 Tight Ends
16% chance of owning a starter (13 players)
9% chance of owning a backup (7 players)
13% chance of minimal contribution in third season (10 players)
62% chance of no contribution in third season (49 players)
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Tight Ends drafted in the first round, 2006 – 2010: 7
71% chance of owning a starter (5 players)
29% chance of owning a backup (2 players)
0% chance of minimal contribution in third season (0 players)
0% chance of no contribution in third season (0 players)
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Tight Ends drafted in the second round, 2006 – 2010: 9
33% chance of owning a starter (3 players)
0% chance of owning a backup (0 players)
56% chance of minimal contribution in third season (5 players)
11% chance of no contribution in third season (1 player)
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Tight Ends drafted between the third and fifth rounds, 2006 – 2010: 30
17% chance of owning a starter (5 players)
7% chance of owning a backup (2 players)
10% chance of minimal contribution in third season (3 players)
67% chance of no contribution in third season (20 players)
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Tight Ends drafted after the fifth round, 2006 – 2010: 32
0% chance of owning a starter (0 players)
9% chance of owning a backup (3 players)
6% chance of minimal contribution in third season (2 players)
84% chance of no contribution in third season (27 players)
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Quick Hits:
First Round rookie tight ends had an outstanding 83% Rosterable rate, and the number gets better with a perfect 100% in their third season. All seven first round TE’s ranked inside the Top 32 in their third season (Kellen Winslow, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen, Dustin Keller, Benjamin Watson, Marcedes Lewis, Vernon Davis).
Fifth round TE’s compared favorable to third and fourth rounders. So late round tight ends are considered players drafted in the sixth round or later.
Teams that have been unable to produce a tight end with at least a minimal fantasy contribution: Falcons, Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Vikings, Chargers, and Rams. Of these seven teams, four have excuses due to veteran talent occupying the position for some time over the past five years. The Bills, Bengals, and Rams have no excuses other than underwhelming scouting and TE development.
Only two teams have produced two Rosterable third season tight ends over the past five years: the Raiders with Zach Miller (2009) and Courtney Anderson (2006), and the 49ers with Vernon Davis (2008) and Delanie Walker (2008).
Biggest third season tight end disappointments, which has to include seasons halted by injuries: John Carlson and Jermichael Finley. Finley has been an impact player at the position, but can't seem to stay on the field. Carlson has been stuck blocking in Seattle.
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Notable third season tight ends for 2011 (player, round drafted in 2009):
Brandon Pettigrew (1), Richard Quinn (2), Jared Cook (3), Chase Coffman (3), Travis Beckum (3), Shawn Nelson (4), Anthony Hill (4), Davon Drew (5), James Casey (5), Cornelius Ingram (5), John Nalbone (5), Zach Miller (6), Bear Pascoe (6), Brandon Myers (6), John Phillips (6), Jake O'Connell (7), David Johnson (7), Cameron Morrah (7), Dan Gronkowski (7), Evan Moore (ND), Jonathan Stupar (ND), Kory Sperry (ND)
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It’s impossible to use percentages to predict success for first and second round players entering their third season. The sample size is too small over the past five years (seven first round TE’s, nine second round TE’s). I’m a big believer in Lions’ TE Brandon Pettigrew, but he has major red flags. ProFootballFocus Premium Stats rated Pettigrew the 43rd best TE (using a snap filter of 25%) in 2010. Worse, his Pass rating was 60th. Considering there were only 63 TE’s who qualified for the snap filter, Pettigrew has major work to do to improve his game. Despite his low ratings he still ended the season as a Top 16 TE, proving he’s capable of providing fantasy production despite the coaching film. Imagine what he could become if he improves the intangibles.
The percentages state two third season TE’s drafted between the third and fifth rounds should become fantasy starters. Two players that jump out are Cook and Casey. PFF rated Cook the 52nd best TE with the 17th best Passing rating, while Casey was the 22nd best TE with the 50th best Passing rating. Both players did not qualify for filter due to reduced snap counts (107 total tight ends ranked without the filter). Cook is atop the depth chart and will be given ample playing time in 2011. However, use common sense and restraint when targeting Cook during your draft. “Potential” does not guarantee fantasy success, and to date, that’s all Cook is, “potential”. His Average Draft Position (ADP) sits perfectly in the high teens, so don’t feel the need to grab him around 10 because you think he’s the next TE superstar. Casey has Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen on the roster, so it’s clear he has an uphill battle. However, his potential warrants a roster spot in Dynasty leagues with deep rosters.
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Other articles in the Third Season Production series: Third Season Wide Receiver Production, Third Season Defensive Linemen Production, Third Season Linebacker Production
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Click the links for individual Rookie Production articles, which include positional graphs, five-year Excel reports, and 2011 drafted rookies: Rookie Quarterback Production, Rookie Running Back Production, Rookie Wide Receiver Production, Rookie Tight End Production, Rookie Defensive Linemen Production, Rookie Linebacker Production, Rookie Defensive Back Production, Rookie Production Summary
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