The IDP Breakdown is a weekly feature column that goes game by game and looks at all of the key matchups to help you identify big value plays, some not-so-obvious starts, and players to avoid. Analysis is based in part on Jeff Ratcliffe's weekly projections for the defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs.
Dallas @ Tampa Bay
Sean Lee continues to play well, and now has some more mobility with the new cast he sported last week against the Giants. With some use of his fingers he was able to intercept a pass to go along with six solos. While the opportunity for tackles may not be there in as much abundance this week against Tampa Bay, Lee’s big play upside make him a solid LB2 play. As has been the story for the bulk of the season, Lee and DeMarcus Ware are the only two Cowboys IDPs who you want anywhere near your lineup. Ware suffered a shoulder stinger last week, and missed practice this week. This injury is unlikely to sideline him this weekend, however. As always, keep a close eye on his status, but you should likely be able to use him as you normally do.
I was very high on Da’Quan Bowers last week after his huge Week 13 performance. Unfortunately, he did not live up to this hype, recording just two solos in a good matchup against the Jaguars. Moving forward, I’m hesitant to trust Bowers as anything more than an upside DL3 play. Those of you who own Adrian Clayborn can continue to use him as a DL2, but it should be noted that the Cowboys give up the seventh least fantasy points to opposing DLs. With Miles Austin back in the lineup and DeMarco Murray on IR, the Cowboys will likely look to pass early and often in this one. That will translate to opportunities for the Tampa Bay secondary to fill up the stats sheet. Both Sean Jones and Tanard Jackson make interesting DB2 plays, with the slight edge going to Jones.
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Thomas Howard racked up ten solos last week playing an every down role against the Texans. While that certainly looks tempting, I would shy away from sticking Howard into your lineup this week. The Rams have been an extremely poor matchup for LBs over the last month. You likely have better options. Those waiting for Rey Maualuga’s breakout may just have to wait until 2012. Despite speculation, Maualuga was healthy last week, and yet was not in the nickel package. It’s tough to start him when he’s getting just 60% of the Bengals defensive snaps.
James Laurinaitis topped double-digit solo tackles for the second time this season last week. He’s really solidified himself as a top-tier LB. If you own him in a dynasty league, you have yourself a stud for years to come. Darian Stewart is another young Ram with solid potential for the future. Over his last four games, Stewart has 27 solos and two sacks. He will get plenty of opportunities to make plays in this one, and again makes a solid DB2 play. Despite being banged up, Chris Long played 54 snaps. Unfortunately, he did little to help owners in the playoffs, recording no sacks or tackles. He’s a risky play this week, especially against this Cincinnati team who has been stingy against opposing DLs.
Carolina @ Houston
Fantasy owners may have been worried about James Anderson entering last week. Carolina’s every down LB recorded just one solo in Week 13 against the Buccaneers, but rebounded in a big way last week. He topped double-digit solos for the first time this season, racking up 13 of them to go along with a sack against the Falcons. The Texans have been a strong matchup for LBs this season, so Anderson makes a low-end LB1 play. Where Anderson succeeded last week, Charles Godfrey failed. The Panthers strong safety managed only one solo tackled in a favorable matchup. Don’t read too much into this performance. Look for Godfrey to rebound against Houston, making him a solid DB2 option.
In the preseason, I was very excited about the fantasy prospects of Danieal Manning in the very productive safety spot for the Texans. Aside from a nine solo effort back in Week 6 against the Ravens, Manning’s first season in Houston has generally been a disappointment for fantasy owners. To be fair, he was dealing with injury issues that did sideline him for portions of the season. But now he looks to be fully healthy, and last week he exploded for ten solos against the Bengals. Manning looked very good in this effort, especially against the run. If you’re hurting at DB, and your league still allows free agent pick ups, Manning makes for a very interesting play this week. The Panthers yield the seventh most fantasy points to opposing DBs, so Manning could be a sneaky DB2 for you.
Seattle @ Chicago
Aside from the obvious names in Seattle, K.J. Wright is someone who should be on your fantasy radar. With Aaron Curry getting dealt earlier this season, the Seahawks have been rolling with Wright on the strong side, bookending David Hawthorne with Leroy Hill on the weak side. While Wright is not getting the nickel snaps, he has flashed ability as a pass rusher over the last few weeks. He now has a sack in each of the last two games. This week, he gets to face Caleb Hanie, who has been sacked 15 times in the last three weeks. If you’re desperate in a big play league, you could do a lot worse than Wright.
The Bears don’t offer fantasy owners much in terms of creativity. You’re starting Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs, and Brian Urlacher. I suppose the only deeper play the Bears offer is Israel Idonije. He only has four sacks on the season, but Idonije did manage five QB interruptions last week. The Seahawks have given up five sacks to opposing DLs over the last two weeks, so Idonije should get his chances. Consider him a viable DL3 option.
Washington @ New York Giants
The Redskins threw fantasy owners a curveball last week at safety. As expected, Reed Doughty started for LaRon Landry at strong safety. But at free safety it was DeJon Gomes and not O.J. Atogwe. While most owners were likely not relying on Atogwe, this is still something to keep an eye on this weekend against the Giants. Of the three, I’m still only relying on Doughty, but as nothing more than a high-end DB3. Ryan Kerrigan hasn’t recorded a sack in the last two weeks. Don’t expect that to change this week. The Giants have given up just two sacks in the last three weeks.
Jason Pierre-Paul has been an absolute monster this season. With two more sacks last season, he now sits with 12 to go along with 36 solos. This week he has a nice matchup against this Redskins offensive line that has been vulnerable to strong pass rushers this season. Pierre-Paul is behind only Jared Allen this week in my rankings. Justin Tuck is still battling injury issues. It might be a good idea to keep him on the bench in this one despite the good matchup. It’s also a good idea to not rely on any Giants LBs this week. While Michael Boley did play last week, no Giants LB played an every down role (excluding Mathias Kiwanuka, who doubles as a DE). At this point in the season, rolling the dice on any Giants LB is just too risky of a proposition.
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Barrett Ruud was officially placed on IR this week, so those of you who were concerned that he may come back and steal snaps from Colin McCarthy can breath a sigh of relief. McCarthy is the guy now and moving forward into next season. Unfortunately, he has a very poor matchup this week against the Colts. If you own McCarthy, chances are that you have to start him, but I wouldn’t expect big numbers out of him. Jason McCourty was back in practice this week, so expect to see him in the starting lineup on Sunday. If you grabbed Alterraun Verner, I would look to other options.
Dwight Freeney showed up big last week, recording two sacks against the Ravens. Freeney has been anything but consistent this season for fantasy owners. Couple that with this matchup against the very stout Titans pass protection, and we have the makings for a very long day. You likely have better options elsewhere. Though he didn’t necessarily look that great, Pat Angerer did play every snap last week for the Colts. He was not on the injury report this week, so it looks like he should be fine to play on Sunday. This is a fairly decent matchup for Angerer, as the Titans will certainly look to run the ball with Chris Johnson and Jamie Harper. We could also see a bit of Jake Locker on the ground as well. Though I’m not overly excited about Angerer, he does make for a low-end LB2 play.
Miami @ Buffalo
Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen it fluctuate between Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett as the most productive Dolphins IDP. Last week against the Eagles, Dansby was the guy. He racked up nine solos, giving him 68 on the season, and now sits as the tenth ranked ILB here at PFF. While Burnett does give you big play upside, Dansby is the safer bet to put up solid numbers this week. Both players are LB2s, but this is not best fantasy matchup. You can’t bench either guy, but you may have to look to make up points elsewhere in your lineup.
Interestingly, the Bills played a 4-3 base package last week against the Chargers, and have been consistently giving that look this season. In the 4-3, Kelvin Sheppard, not Nick Barnett, mans the middle. Sheppard is still a bit rough around the edges and does not always look good shedding blockers, but he showed us last week against the Chargers that he is capable of putting up impressive fantasy numbers. In total, he had eleven solos and three assists on the day. To be fair, the Chargers have been a very good fantasy matchup this season, but Sheppard is still someone to take notice of in all formats. He doesn’t have the best matchup this week, but could make for a sneaky LB3 play.
New Orleans @ Minnesota
Though I’ve never been very high on Jonathan Vilma, I was impressed with how he looked in his return back in Week 13. Last week, I considered him a solid LB2 option and recommended that you start him as suck. While he did play every snap, he managed just one measly assisted tackle on the day. Hopefully that didn’t cost you your fantasy life, but this does display what I had been preaching in the earlier part of the season that Vilma simply cannot be trusted as a solid producing IDP. Yes, he will have the occasional game where he puts up seven or eight solos, but he also could just as easily put up two for you. If you’re still hanging onto hope with Vilma, you might be better advised to play it safe and look elsewhere this week.
No team yields more points to opposing DBs than the Saints, which is a shame because there really aren’t any startable options among the Vikings DBs. Don’t get cute in this one and try to start one of these guys. Do you really want your playoff life depending on a big day from Jamarca Sanford? You absolutely can, however, start Chad Greenway as an LB2 in this one. Greenway has very quietly put up an impressive 90 solos through 13 games. Despite Drew Brees only being sacked five times in the last five weeks, you don’t want to even consider benching Jared Allen. He’s still my number one DL this week.
Green Bay @ Kansas City
D.J. Smith and Rob Francois both had very nice games for the Packers last week filling in for the injured Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk. Francois saw 72 snaps and managed eight solos and a pick, while Smith played 75 snaps and racked up nine solos. Bishop looks to be out for at least one more week, so Smith is a fairly safe bet to get the nickel snaps this week. Hawk will likely return this week, but the Packers coaching staff was impressed with what they saw from Francois. Expect him to be rotated in with Hawk. Neither guy will get enough snaps to have any fantasy value though.
There has been a lot of talk about Tyson Jackson this week following his seven solo outburst last week against the Jets. Jackson has been anything but consistent this season, topping five solos just twice and recording only one sack on the year. I’m never a fan of 3-4 DEs in general, and I would not recommend rushing out to pick him up. The same cannot be said for Justin Houston, who again notched a sack last week. He doesn’t make the best play this week, but has a much better matchup looming in Week 16 against Oakland.
Detroit @ Oakland
While Carson Palmer hasn’t exactly been sack prone in his time with the Raiders this season, he also isn’t what we would call a mobile QB either. Last week, Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch combined for 16 QB interruptions, and they converted three of them for sacks. With Ndamukong Suh back from suspension, Avril and Vanden Bosch should have plenty of opportunity to get after Palmer. Both are good bets to notch a sack. Avril comes with the added benefit of his tackling ability, making him a low-end DL1 play in all formats, whereas Vanden Bosch won’t give you many tackles, and should be consisted more of a low-end DL2 option. Those looking for a super deep LB play may want to take a look at Bobby Carpenter. Justin Durant is not looking likely to play, and Carpenter has been productive when he gets on the field. If you’re absolutely hurting, Carpenter could be used in a pinch as an LB3/Flex.
A few weeks back, I had mentioned Desmond Bryant as a player to keep an eye on. Bryant is an interesting guy, who started the season at DT, but has been moved outside since Matt Shaughnessy went to IR. Because of his early season position, most fantasy host sites list him as a DT, which allows for a rare loophole. Outside of a few players, the DT position is generally unproductive, but starting Bryant means you have a shot at getting DE production out of your DT. The only drawback to Bryant is that he is used in a rotational role, which means that in some games he may only see 40-50% of the snaps. Regardless, he’s on a roll, racking up six sacks in his last six games. He makes for an ultra-sneaky DT1 play.
Cleveland @ Arizona
Fantasy owners got essentially no production out of the Browns defensive line trio of Phil Taylor, Ahtyba Rubin, and Jabaal Sheard. I wouldn’t be overly concerned though, as the Steelers general lack of a run game did not provide many tackling opportunities. Expect these guys to rebound this week, as they should see plenty of Bean Wells. Another byproduct of last week’s matchup was free safety Mike Adams recording seven solos. Again, I would not read too much into this production, and would keep Adams in your free agent pool.
The Cleveland offense has struggled to mount much of anything this season, and that should continue on Sunday. Last week, the Browns showed their vulnerability to OLBs with Jason Worilds sacking Colt McCoy twice. This bodes well for Sam Acho, who has been relatively quiet since his coming out party back in Week 12. Look for Acho to exploit this matchup all day and get plenty of cracks at the QB. He doesn’t offer you much in terms of tackle production, but does have big play upside. Consider him a high ceiling LB3 in big play scoring systems.
New England @ Denver
Though he was the top-scoring IDP in many formats last season, Jerod Mayo has struggled to reproduce his 2010 numbers. Injuries and scheme changes have played into this dip in production. However, this week I like Mayo as a high-end LB2 play. The Broncos have been an excellent matchup for LBs since Tim Tebow has taken over. In that span, we’ve seen Brian Urlacher with 12 solos, Jovan Belcher and Karlos Dansby with nine, Takeo Spikes and Kevin Burnett with eight, and Derrick Johnson and Donald Butler with seven. Though Tebow will certainly challenge the Patriots through the air, expect to see plenty of running from Denver in this one, which means plenty of opportunity for Mayo.
Von Miller was back in an every down role last week for Denver, and recorded another sack in the process. He continues to be a rock solid IDP option, especially in big play scoring leagues. But last week, D.J. Williams had the most impressive day for the Denver defense. Against the Bears, Williams went off for seven solos and two sacks, and in the process turned in his best PFF grade of the season at +3.0. Williams has really rounded into shape after dealing with those early season injury issues. Just in time to hopefully win you a championship.
New York Jets @ Philadelphia
The Eagles have been a fantastic matchup for opposing IDPs this season. The Jets, on the other hand, have very few players worth starting. David Harris is an obvious play in this one, but two other guys that I like are Eric Smith and Darrelle Revis. The Eagles currently give up the second most fantasy points to opposing DBs, and have been especially generous to safeties. There’s an outside chance that Smith may even be available in your league. If he is, grab him. He’ll get you DB2+ numbers this week. Revis isn’t always the best fantasy option, but he comes with nice big play upside, and has shown an ability to post decent tackle numbers this season. He makes a decent CB2 in CB required leagues.
As I mentioned last week, there are now no Philadelphia LBs worth starting in fantasy leagues. If you haven’t already, make sure you get Jamar Chaney out of your lineup. There’s plenty of debate in the Philadelphia media as to whether or not Jason Babin is having a good season. The focus has been on his tackle numbers, which currently stand at 29. However, due to the Eagles wide-9 alignment, Babin is often out of position to make tackles. At the same time, he’s racked up 15 sacks on the season. He also grades out at +15.0, which ranks him as the 14th best 4-3 DE this season. Sounds like a good year to me. And that good year has translated into DL1 fantasy value. Both Babin and Trent Cole remain rock solid DL1 options this week.
Baltimore @ San Diego
Guess who’s back? That’s right, Ray Lewis returns this week from a foot injury that has sidelined him for the last three weeks. My bold prediction for this week is that Lewis is the top LB. That’s right. I’m not concerned at all about the injury. Also, he faces a Chargers team that is currently giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing LBs. If you own Lewis, don’t even hesitate to start him. Another Raven who will benefit from this matchup is Bernard Pollard. While he hasn’t put up the numbers this season that we had seen from him in the past, Pollard has been a decent DB2/DB3 option for most of the year. The Chargers have also been very friendly to opposing DBs. With that matchup boost, Pollard makes a low-end DB1 play this week.
Unlike San Diego, Baltimore has not been the best fantasy matchup for IDPs this season. I’d be cautious if you’re considering starting any of the Chargers IDPs other than Eric Weddle. Donald Butler is dealing with a foot issue that limited him to just 12 snaps last week. He did not practice this week, and could be limited again if he does play. If you own him, it might be a good idea to look elsewhere.
Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
The good news for the Steelers is that they will get LaMarr Woodley back this week against the 49ers. The bad news for the Steelers is that they will be without James Harrison, who was suspended for a game for his helmet-to-helmet hit on Colt McCoy. With Harrison out, Jason Worilds will likely get another start on the outside for Pittsburgh. Worilds was in an every down role last week against the Browns, and played very well. He managed seven QB interruptions, converting two for sacks, and racked up seven solos. If you’re struggling to fill that last LB spot, Worilds could give you another week of production. I wouldn’t necessarily grab him in a tackle heavy league, but like his chances to produce in balanced and big play formats.
With this game being on Monday night, Patrick Willis owners are in a tough predicament. Though he has not practiced this week, Willis’s status for Monday night is still unclear. If you own Willis, your best bet would be to handcuff him with Larry Grant. Despite not looking very good in his time in St. Louis, Grant has played very well as Willis’s replacement. Last week against the Cardinals, Grant tallied nine solos, so the potential to produce is certainly there. If you’re a Willis owner, and want to roll the dice, make sure you do so with Grant on your roster.
As always, thanks for reading, and best of luck in the playoffs! If you have any questions, comments, or just want to talk football, feel free to hit me up on Twitter – @JeffRatcliffe.
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