Let’s take a closer look at the Fantasy Football potential for University of Washington quarterback Jake Locker. Locker has been on the top of most NFL team’s draft board since the end of the 2010 draft. Locker has all the physical tools to excel as an NFL quarterback and with the addition of Head Coach Steve Sarkisian we expect to see development in Locker’s mental part of the game. Each of Locker’s first three seasons has come with substantial improvement in all of his numbers. The one number that draws my eye is the completion percentage. We have seen Locker’s completion percentage rise each season by at least five percentage points. In his first season he completed 48% of his passes, in 2008 it was 53% and last season it was 58%. I truly expect to see that number improve again this season. The completion percentage is a good indication of improved decision making.
Ok, so that was a very quick and brief look at Locker’s college improvement but I want to focus on his fantasy potential and some of the factors that will impact that potential. As I mentioned most NFL teams have Locker sitting atop their draft big board’s so it would be safe to say as of now he would be the first quarterback selected in the 2011 NFL Draft. And to get a good feel about how Locker’s rookie season may turn out you have to project a few landing spots for him on draft day. To get a good projection I used Pro Football Focus’ stats and identified the teams with the worst overall offense and worst passing offense. I was able to quickly eliminate a few teams that would not select Locker because they already have identified their quarterback of the future. Those teams include the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, and the Tampa Bay Bucs. So that left me with the Buffalo Bills, Oakland Raiders, and Kansas City Chiefs. I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Bills will have the highest draft pick of those teams, so that means that for this articles sake Jake Locker is a member of the Buffalo Bills.
When you look at the Bills current roster you have to figure that even as a rookie Locker is the best they have at the quarterback position, therefore he a very good shot at opening the season as the starter. The fantasy spin on this is he will be the starting quarterback for an NFL team which means that he will have an opportunity to provide you with some points. Let’s stay with the positive aspect of this situation; The Bills have a good stable of running backs that will help take the pressure off of Locker. 2010 draftee CJ Spiller will give Locker an excellent check down option and has the potential to turn a short pass in to a big gain. On the outside Locker has a very reliable and potentially game breaking receiver in Lee Evans. According to Pro Football Focus’s stats the Bills had the 6th worst overall defense in 2009. This stat means that the Bills will be playing from behind often so you could expect them to throw the ball a lot.
Now let’s switch to the negative; the Bills have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and that is not a good combination with a rookie quarterback. Locker has good athleticism but chances are he is going to take a lot of hits and that raises his injury risk. The poor offensive line will also limit the potential for deep passing connections because Locker won’t have the time to let the play to develop. Other than Lee Evans and the running backs the Bills have limited offensive weapons. They have been searching for another receiver to help Evans for several years now (even signing Terrell Owens). The Bills poorly rated defense may lead to few snaps for the offense because the opponents will have long clock eating drives. And lastly Locker will be a rookie quarterback and according to the Pro Football Focus stats that rarely spells success. Here is a look at the stats for Matthew Stafford and the stats showed that he only had 3 games rated over the quarterback average.
So to sum up the information provided I would have to say that Locker might not be a great fantasy football option during his rookie season. That doesn’t mean he has no value; if you’re a member of a deep keeper league drafting Locker gives you a long term option at the quarterback position. Also in deeper leagues he will give you the benefit of having another starting quarterback option. I want to caution that this is just a projection and Locker could end up on any number of teams but you would have to think that the Bills stand a good shot of having the first crack at drafting him.
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