A collaborative post by Ross Miles and Jeff Ratcliffe.
The IDP team breaks down and ranks the IDP rosters of all 32 NFL teams, by taking the average projected points per team for players projected to play over 500 snaps in 2011. For each franchise starting caliber players (top 10) are listed for big-play scoring formats, such as our own IDP scoring system, and tackle-heavy (or more standard) leagues.
32. New York Jets (84.50)
Although they are an elite defense in real life NFL terms, the Jets do not possess any IDP studs that are must starts in either big-play or tackle-heavy scoring formats. David Harris has not lived up to his rookie season hype and hasn’t developed into a top flight fantasy linebacker, but does represent solid LB2 scoring potential. Darrelle Revis might be the best cornerback in the NFL, but his reputation precedes him and it’s difficult to him having more than DB3/4 value. None of the defensive line should be on any but the deepest of rosters.
Big-Play Studs: n/a
Tackle-Heavy Studs: n/a
31. Buffalo Bills (88.70)
There is not too much to get excited about from an IDP fantasy perspective in Buffalo. Kyle Williams (+44.9) was a stud last year and is an excellent interior run-stuffer, which makes him a dependable option in leagues that start DTs. His fellow defensive lineman Dwan Edwards and Marcell Daerus make for bench fodder. George Wilson’s return to the starting SS role gives him an excellent chance of being a low-end DB1 in tackle-heavy systems if he can replicate his 2009 form. Nick Barnett makes an interesting LB2/3 taking over the role filled by 100+ solo tackle performer, Paul Posluszny. Keep an eye on rookie Kelvin Sheppard as the long-term answer at LB in dynasty formats.
Big-Play Studs: Kyle Williams (DT)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Kyle Williams (DT), George Wilson (S)
30. Cincinnati Bengals (89.42)
Ray Maualuga is being projected as an every down ILB for the Bengals in 2011 which will finally give him the value that he projected to have as a big hitting college star. He’s a LB2 with the upside to be a low-end LB1. After 10 sacks in the final 8 games, Carlos Dunlap marked himself as a potential breakout player this year. However he is not proving to be reliable against the run and is having to compete against Michael Johnson for snaps. Leon Hall and Nate Clements make for an interesting CB duo, but both are not really more than fantasy back-ups.
Big-Play Studs: n/a
Tackle-Heavy Studs: n/a
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (89.67)
An improving defense, but without the flashy fantasy stars. Paul Posluszny is a tackle machine who should post similar numbers in Jacksonville despite a change in defensive scheme, making him a dependable LB1. Tyson Alualu is a sleeper candidate in leagues starting DTs and Dawan Landry makes for a reliable, but unexciting safety.
Big-Play Studs: Paul Posluszny (LB)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Paul Posluszny (LB)
28. Dallas Cowboys (91.25)
DeMarcus Ware is one of the best pass-rushing 3-4 outside linebackers in the NFL, but unless you are playing in a big-play heavy scoring system there are better options out there for your roster. Jay Ratliff had a down year in 2010, recording only 3.5 sacks, but was a DT1 in ’08 and ’09 in big-play leagues, so offers upside. Bradie James flies a little under the radar is a consistent tackler who makes for a solid LB2/3 in redraft leagues.
Big-Play Studs: DeMarcus Ware (LB)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: n/a
27. Seattle Seahawks (91.30)
One of the worst kept secrets of the fantasy offseason has been David Hawthorne’s potential to be a fantasy stud in 2011, making him sleeper material for everyone under the sun. In tackle-heavy leagues he should threaten to be a top 5 linebacker. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor provide a potent fantasy safety tandem and both project to be DB2s this season. Rumors that Aaron Curry is moving to the weakside will see a slight jump in his value, but he’s more of a bench stash in dynasty leagues in the hope he pans out.
Big-Play Studs: n/a
Tackle-Heavy Studs: David Hawthorne (LB)
26. Indianapolis Colts (91.36)
The Colts Tampa-2 defensive scheme limits to fantasy production of their linebacker corps, but if you want to take one of them, Pat Angerer holds the most value. The pass-rushing duo of Mathis and Freeney are both great at getting to the QB, but Freeney in particular is vulnerable in tackle-heavy formats. Antoine Bethea is a decent option in tackle-heavy formats, having averaged 101 total tackles a year since 2007.
Big-Play Studs: Robert Mathis (DE)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Robert Mathis (DE)
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (91.55)
Although there are no IDP studs on this team right now, there is a lot of young talent worth looking at in dynasty leagues. McCoy, Clayborn and Bowers are all up and coming players on the Buccs defensive line that should be stashed in keeper leagues. Mason Foster is one of the most sought after rookie MLBs, but he is not a certainty to be playing nickel snaps in his first season, so he’s more of a spot starter/sleeper this year. Keep an eye on news surrounding Tanard Jackson’s suspension. Not eligible for reinstatement until after week 3, he would have low-end DB2 value if playing 16 games.
Big-Play Studs: n/a
Tackle-Heavy Studs: n/a
24. Houston Texans (92.00)
Wade Phillips transition to a 3-4 defense has caused a shakeup in Houston. Mario Williams is no longer a stud DE, but a suspect OLB, even in big-play scoring systems. He’ll take a while to get acclimatized to not having his hand in the dirt, so he’s a pass for me in 2011. Brian Cushing and Demeco Ryans are both hold fantasy value, but injury concerns for Ryans and a position change for Cushing means you should limit your expectations. Connor Barwin is an interesting sleeper in big-play league and is worth stashing in deep dynasty leagues. It’s an interesting fantasy secondary as Kareem Jackson (-12.8) was so bad last year he was targeted 86 times in 15 games, giving him plenty of opportunities to make plays. Free-agent signing Johnathan Joseph was a CB1 for Cincinnati in 2009 before an injury hampered 2010, so could bounce back this year. Danieal Manning and Glover Quin are both converted cornerbacks who seem to relish their new safety roles and make for decent sleepers in less savvy leagues.
Big-Play Studs: n/a
Tackle-Heavy Studs: n/a
23. New York Giants (92.15)
The Giants have been plagued by injuries already this year and losing IDP stud Terrell Thomas is a big hit to have to take, especially as rookie Prince Amukamara will miss the first month of the year too. They do retain one of the league’s premier pass-rushing defensive lines, featuring Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora. Tuck is as good as there is and barring injury is a lock to be a top 5 DE. Offseason contractual disputes and surgeries have meant Umenyiora has missed playing time, while Pierre-Paul has excelled. If JPP can continue his preseason form into the regular season Umenyiora find himself as only a situational pass-rusher. Kenny Phillips makes for a nice sleeper if he has recovered from his numerous injuries.
Big-Play Studs: Justin Tuck (DE)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Justin Tuck (DE)
22. Washington Redskins (92.33)
The Redskins defense mixes age and youth, with IDP staples like London Fletcher and OJ Atogwe with younger stars LaRon Landry and Brian Orakpo. Fletcher is a solid LB2/3 but is not going to suddenly find the improvement to reach LB1 levels, while Atogwe being reunited with former DC Jim Haslett which might be the trigger he needs to jump back up fantasy rankings. Orakpo has the skills to be the next coming of DeMarcus Ware, but he’ll need to rack up more tackle if he wants to crack DE1 territory. DeAngelo Hall is a player I love to hate, but he does get targeted and that means he’ll have plenty of opportunities to make a play.
Big-Play Studs: LaRon Landry (S)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: LaRon Landry (S), DeAngelo Hall (CB)
21. Denver Broncos (92.38)
Another defensive scheme switch should result in a boost in value for the disappointing Robert Ayers, but also see Elvis Dumervil (who charted 17 sacks in 2009) pinning his ears back and getting after the QB more often. The fight for the starting ILB role is still being played out by Joe Mays and rookie Nate Irving, which makes judging their value difficult, but DJ Williams is still one of the best tackling WLBs out there. Do be wary of potential suspensions though as Williams has a DUI charge hanging over him. Rahim Moore is an attractive dynasty target as he looks likely to win the starting FS role, especially with DB-blitz happy Dennis Allen calling the shots after leaving New Orleans. In big-play league Von Miller makes for an interesting play, but more so in dynasty leagues. Be wary of over-drafting him.
Big-Play Studs: Elvis Dumervil (DE)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: n/a
20. Chicago Bears (93.18)
From an IDP standpoint, the Bears have several studs, but not much more. Julius Peppers continues to be a top 5 DE and Charles Tillman is one of the most reliable cornerbacks from a fantasy perspective, with 27 interceptions and 24 forced fumbles in his career. Brian Urlacher seems to be unaffected by age and will supplement his solid tackle numbers with turnovers. Israel Idonije deserves a mention as someone who doesn’t get credited enough and Major Wright makes for a nice bye week fill in now he’s taken over as the starting SS.
Big-Play Studs: Julius Peppers (DE), Brian Urlacher (LB), Charles Tillman (CB)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Julius Peppers (DE), Charles Tillman (CB)
19. Kansas City Chiefs (94.00)
Another up and coming defense, led by our #1 defensive back in big-play scoring systems, Eric Berry. Berry reminds me a lot of Ed Reed in the way he can deliver a bit hit and take an interception to the house, but he’ll spend more time in the box making tackles, which is where his value comes from. Derrick Johnson seems to have finally switched on, learning how to be a consistent performer ay the NFL level and should be a low-end LB1. In big-play scoring systems Tamba Hali will be a highly sought after asset, but don’t reach for him, the will be better value options available. The cornerback pairing of Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr is very good (allowing on 48.18% completion rate, combined), but without enough big plays it’s hard to see either becoming more than a fantasy spot starter.
Big-Play Studs: Derrick Johnson (LB), Eric Berry (S)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Derrick Johnson (LB), Eric Berry (S)
18. Miami Dolphins (94.46)
The Dolphins have a productive IDP defense held together by a tackle-monster safety in Yeremiah Bell. Although an unsexy proposition, Bell has exceeded 100 total tackles in each of the last three seasons, which makes him a very reliable option. Cameron Wake is among the blitzing elite of the NFL, and in big-play leagues he is only a step behind the top 10, but is no more than a spot starter in tackle-heavy leagues. If you’re looking for forgotten value, Karlos Dansby is a prime candidate after being a LB1 in 2008, but failing to deliver since. After taking last year to settle into the Dolphins defense, Dansby could be primed to return to the upper echelons of IDP projections. The young CB duo of Vontae Davis (+9.0) and Sean Smith (+9.9) are among the most under-rated tandems in the league, but whether they can convert their on-field skills into fantasy production? They make for interesting sleeper candidates who can be grabbed at the end of most drafts.
Big-Play Studs: Yeremiah Bell (S)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Yeremiah Bell (S)
17. New Orleans Saints (94.67)
One of the most aggressive defenses in football under Gregg Williams, they have several solid IDP contributors, but only Roman Harper is a stud. Few DBs blitz more than Harper (82 times) which gives him plenty of opportunities to make sacks, tackles for loss and force fumbles. Jonathan Vilma has retained his ILB spot and LB2/3 status, although the signing of rookie Martez Wilson should be notice that the Saints are preparing for the future. Jabari Greer and Tracey Porter are both under-achieving corners, who are great CB3 options with upside, if they can string together a whole season. The defensive line has been upgraded with the addition of Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rodgers, but what it means is both, along with Sedrick Ellis, will play in rotation making none fantasy relevant. Will Smith will look to bounce back this year and the addition of a high-motor rookie, Cameron Jordan, opposite, he may just do that.
Big-Play Studs: Roman Harper (S)
Tackle-Heavy Studs: Roman Harper (S)
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_RossMiles & @JeffRatcliffe.
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