- There is value in a first-round wide receiver: Tyreek Hill is the ideal late first-round pick after his monster first season with the Miami Dolphins.
- Great running back options available in Round 2: There are several running backs that would typically be first-round picks but are falling to the second round.
- It’s fine to wait on a quarterback from this spot: There is constant value at other positions in the first few rounds, making it best to wait until later for a quarterback.
Estimated reading time: 17 minutes
The perfect draft series takes current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick so that we can make the best picks. For help on other pick numbers or league sizes, rankings or more details about the players, check out the rest of my summer content below. For rankings with better filtering along with auction values, check out our draft rankings page.
More Rankings: PPR | Half-PPR | Best Ball|
Dynasty Rankings: PPR | Superflex | Rookie | Superflex Rookie
Position Rankings: QB | RB | TE
Sleepers: RB | WR | TE
Draft Strategy: 12-Team | Picks 1-3 | Picks 4-6
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Tuesday, July 18
Round 1, Picks 7-9: Draft a wide receiver
By this point, the top running backs, wide receivers and Travis Kelce are all likely off the board. If someone reaches for a player in the top half of the first round, then take advantage of their mistake and adjust this draft strategy as needed.
No quarterback or tight end should get picked late in the first round or early in the second, making the decision here between running back and wide receiver. The value at running back will be similar to early in the second round, but that’s not true at wide receiver. Tyreek Hill is the ideal pick if the start of the draft is normal, but another elite wide receiver is also a fine selection.
Top Target: Tyreek Hill
Hill was the most efficient wide receiver in fantasy football last season, and he can build on his success in 2023.
- Hill produced a 31.3% target rate, leading to a catch on 22.3% of his routes. Those both ranked first out of 73 wide receivers with at least 345 routes last season.
- Jaylen Waddle was Hill’s biggest competition for touches last season, and that will remain true this season. Nonetheless, they proved they can coexist.
- The biggest concern for Hill’s fantasy potential is how the Dolphins rotate their wide receivers. Hill played every game in 2022 but ranked only 32nd in number of routes run.
- Hill was on the field for just 76.1% of offensive snaps, which included 84.2% of pass plays and 59.4% of run plays.
- For a much more detailed breakdown of Hill, check out his player profile.
Possible Targets: Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Round 2, Picks 16-18: Draft a quarterback or running back