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DFS Data Dive: Hunting Week 1's best stacks

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Cleveland Browns during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

  • Stack Chiefs WRs with Mahomes: We can’t be sure which Kansas City Chiefs receivers to stack with Patrick Mahomes, but their lower cost means throwing darts at all of them could pay off.
  • High-upside DFS stack for Week 1: It isn’t the cheapest stack, but no combination has a higher ceiling than combining Derrick Henry with the Tennessee Titans’ defense.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The numbers below are harnessing the unexpected connections and reactions between players that have actually happened over the past several years and thereby points to under/overvalued stacks that won’t be identified through traditional projections and logical deduction.

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QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
KC ARZ 11.0 Patrick Mahomes QB 25.2 7,700 23.4 8,700
KC ARZ 11.0 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 13.0 4,700 10.7 5,500
BLT NYJ 9.8 Lamar Jackson QB 23.1 7,300 21.7 8,500
BLT NYJ 9.8 Rashod Bateman WR 12.1 5,300 9.6 6,100
LV LAC 6.4 Derek Carr QB 20.2 5,900 18.6 7,400
LV LAC 6.4 Davante Adams WR 19.1 8,100 14.8 8,500
IND HST 5.8 Matt Ryan QB 19.9 5,500 18.6 6,900
IND HST 5.8 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 15.6 5,500 12.4 7,200
PHI DET 5.4 Jalen Hurts QB 24.7 6,800 23.1 8,000
PHI DET 5.4 A.J. Brown WR 15.5 6,400 12.5 7,100
LAC LV 5.2 Justin Herbert QB 23.5 7,600 21.9 8,400
LAC LV 5.2 Keenan Allen WR 15.5 7,000 12.0 7,400
GB MIN 4.8 Aaron Rodgers QB 23.3 7,000 21.8 7,800
GB MIN 4.8 Allen Lazard WR 12.4 5,600 10.1 6,300
JAX WAS 4.2 Trevor Lawrence QB 17.3 5,600 16.1 7,000
JAX WAS 4.2 Christian Kirk WR 12.2 5,100 9.6 5,800
ARZ KC 4.1 Kyler Murray QB 22.2 7,200 20.9 8,200
ARZ KC 4.1 Marquise Brown WR 14.2 6,200 11.2 6,900
NE MIA 4.0 Mac Jones QB 17.2 5,400 16.1 6,600
NE MIA 4.0 Jakobi Meyers WR 11.4 4,300 8.9 5,500
CIN PIT 3.8 Joe Burrow QB 22.4 6,400 20.7 7,700
CIN PIT 3.8 Ja'Marr Chase WR 19.7 7,100 15.7 8,200
SF CHI 3.5 Trey Lance QB 21.0 6,000 19.8 7,500
SF CHI 3.5 Deebo Samuel WR 14.9 7,400 12.3 8,400
TEN NYG 3.3 Ryan Tannehill QB 19.1 5,700 18.2 7,100
TEN NYG 3.3 Robert Woods WR 11.2 5,600 8.7 5,600
NO ATL 3.1 Jameis Winston QB 15.7 5,300 14.8 6,700
NO ATL 3.1 Michael Thomas WR 11.7 5,700 9.2 6,200
CHI SF 3.0 Justin Fields QB 16.2 5,600 15.1 6,900
CHI SF 3.0 Darnell Mooney WR 10.3 5,700 8.2 6,200
DET PHI 3.0 Jared Goff QB 16.3 5,400 15.2 6,800
DET PHI 3.0 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 12.7 6,100 9.8 6,500
ATL NO 2.7 Marcus Mariota QB 13.2 5,200 12.6 6,500
ATL NO 2.7 Drake London WR 11.9 5,000 9.3 5,500
NYG TEN 2.7 Daniel Jones QB 19.0 5,000 17.7 7,100
NYG TEN 2.7 Kenny Golladay WR 12.4 4,800 10.1 5,600
NYJ BLT 2.5 Joe Flacco QB 0.3 4,800 0.3 6,200
NYJ BLT 2.5 Elijah Moore WR 11.6 5,100 9.3 6,000
MIN GB 2.4 Kirk Cousins QB 18.9 6,100 17.4 7,300
MIN GB 2.4 Justin Jefferson WR 21.1 7,800 16.4 8,100
CLV CAR 2.2 Jacoby Brissett QB 17.6 5,200 16.5 6,300
CLV CAR 2.2 Amari Cooper WR 11.6 5,900 9.2 6,400
CAR CLV 2.1 Baker Mayfield QB 14.9 5,300 14.0 6,600
CAR CLV 2.1 D.J. Moore WR 14.5 6,000 11.4 6,400
MIA NE 1.8 Tua Tagovailoa QB 18.8 5,700 17.5 7,000
MIA NE 1.8 Tyreek Hill WR 17.0 6,800 13.6 7,700
PIT CIN 1.7 Mitchell Trubisky QB 11.0 5,000 10.6 6,400
PIT CIN 1.7 Diontae Johnson WR 10.7 6,000 8.3 6,700
HST IND 1.4 Davis Mills QB 17.9 5,300 16.5 6,500
HST IND 1.4 Brandin Cooks WR 14.5 6,300 11.4 6,600
WAS JAX 1.3 Carson Wentz QB 18.6 5,500 17.4 6,800
WAS JAX 1.3 Terry McLaurin WR 14.3 6,500 11.3 7,000

RB/DST

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