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Best NFL game stacks to target for DFS GPPs in Week 15

Dec 13, 2020; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) drops back to pass against the Chicago Bears during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Stacking is essential to success in DFS guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs). The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament.

An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.

We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.

This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the signal-caller position.

Focusing on this approach of identifying potential hits at quarterback, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections, opponent-adjusted grades and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.

WEEK 14 REVIEW

Week 14 was a perfect DFS slate that rewarded unique builds, with solid performances occurring throughout. No top player or stack was owned in every lineup that made up the top of leaderboards. Derrick Henry and David Montgomery were the most frequent players among top-10 lineups, but that was to be expected at 25% or more.

Totals continue to trend down — the mean this week is the fourth-lowest of 2020. Outside of the weather concerns in Week 8, this is the lowest total after the first two weeks of the season. The range is once again quite tight for Week 15, as few games offer the top-end range we have seen in previous weeks. The highest total on the main slate sits at 51.5, which is lower than we have seen over the past few weeks. There are few concerns from a game total perspective, with all but two games offering some semblance of fantasy production.

In general, we should once again see spread-out ownership among game stacks. Game spreads also project most of these games to stay close, which is the perfect opportunity for what we are looking for in game stacks.

Let’s take a closer look at the Week 15 games that this model believes have the best opportunity to produce the most fantasy points at each position.

HIGH-OWNED OPTIONS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The top matchup in Week 15 should see plenty of DFS ownership from both teams. Drew Brees is back, and the market responded by immediately pushing the Saints down to a field goal spread. This is counter to our cash and ticket percentages, which highlight what seems to be a correction by bookmakers based on the latest quarterback news.

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