Putting the 2017 rookies into historical fantasy context

Last offseason, I dug up the top rookie fantasy seasons of the PFF era (since 2007) for each position. It wasn’t particularly surprising to find that the bulk of the top rookie seasons in fantasy have occurred over the past few years, what with the steady rise in annual passing volume and teams once again prioritizing running backs in recent drafts. With that in mind, I wanted to revisit that series to find out where the 2017 rookie class fit in terms of the best rookie fantasy seasons of the PFF era.

Quarterback

DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns (No. 20)

Going back to the AFL-NFL merger, all but three of the top-12 fantasy seasons by a rookie quarterback have occurred in the past five years alone. It’s apples and oranges to compare the present-day NFL to the less pass-happy league of yesteryear, so it shouldn’t be all that shocking that Kizer – he of 11 touchdowns and a league-high 22 interceptions – comes in at No. 20 on the list, the highest of this year’s (mostly) underwhelming rookie crop. To put into perspective how the list skews toward recent seasons, if we go back to 2007 instead of 1970, Kizer moves up only three spots, to No. 17. Still, given his level of play and Cleveland’s bevy of first-round picks in the upcoming draft, it’s also no surprise that the Browns are still in search of any avenue to upgrade the position.

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (No. 22)

Watson started nine fewer games than Kizer, yet nearly matched him in fantasy scoring. In fact, Watson’s per-game fantasy production more than doubled Kizer’s. He led all quarterbacks with 0.73 fantasy points per dropback – a ridiculous 28-percent higher than the next-closest QB (Cam Newton) – and was on a 16-game pace to finish as the overall QB1 with 400 fantasy points. While we can expect some negative regression for Watson’s league-best touchdown rate of 9.3 percent, the kid can clearly play.

Running back

Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (No. 4)

Hunt turned in the fourth-best elusive rating (73.1) this season, averaging 3.08 yards after contact with a missed tackle forced once every 4.2 touches. Of course, it was something of a roller coaster ride for fantasy owners, considering Hunt went nine straight games without a touchdown after finding the end zone six times in his first three games. The rookie did manage to finish strong, however, scoring six times in his final five games (including playoffs) and claiming the 2017 rushing title with 1,327 yards. Still, while Hunt finished as the RB4 in PPR this season, for some perspective about just how good Alvin Kamara was, consider that the Saints rookie finished one spot higher than Hunt in PPR despite 124 fewer touches.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (No. 7)

Kamara’s 313 PPR points tied Doug Martin for the second-most all-time by a rookie rusher, as he impressively finished as the RB3 among his 2017 peers. In fact, Kamara was the most elusive RB (108.5 rating) out of 53 qualifiers, with a missed tackle forced once every 3.5 touches and an average of 3.8 yards after contact. The dynamic rookie finished with 728 yards and eight TDs rushing, along with 81 catches for 826 yards and another five scores as a receiver. All told, he posted a position-best 0.76 fantasy points per opportunity.

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 13)

Fournette played through a lingering ankle injury for much of the season, yet he still went over the 1,000-yard rushing mark and scored 10 times, finishing as the RB8 in standard scoring. He also caught 36 passes for 302 yards to crack the top-10 in PPR. Although he faded a bit down the stretch, Fournette turned in a dominant performance in the divisional playoff round with 109 yards and three TDs despite aggravating that gimpy ankle. Compared to other rookie RBs of the past decade, Fournette slots in at No. 13, right between Jordan Howard (2016) and Todd Gurley (2015).

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (No. 25)

McCaffrey never had more than 15 carries or 66 rushing yards in a game (both happened in Week 9), hence his spot down at No. 25 on this list (standard scoring). However, he was targeted 106 times and wound up with 80 catches for 651 yards, with five of his seven TDs coming through the air. McCaffrey’s 230 PPR points were ninth-most among RBs this season, and he tied Jordan Howard for 12th-best among all rookie RBs of the PFF era.

Wide receiver

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 13)

It was a rather disappointing season for this year’s rookie WR class. There were six receivers selected in the first two rounds of last April’s draft, with Smith-Schuster the only one to make an impact. In 14 games (seven starts), the former USC standout had 58 catches for 917 yards and seven TDs on 77 targets. He averaged the fourth-most fantasy points per opportunity (0.33) among all receivers this season and led the position with 2.15 yards per route run from the slot. That was good enough to finish as the WR16 this season, and it checks in at No. 13 in terms of top fantasy seasons by a rookie WR since 2007. Of the top-30 rookie seasons in that span, only Odell Beckham Jr. (12 games) and Julio Jones (13 games) played fewer games.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (No. 22)

A third-round pick out of Eastern Washington, Kupp was the seventh receiver off the board in the 2017 NFL Draft. Like Smith-Schuster, Kupp ran 58 percent of his routes from the slot, where he averaged a healthy 2.02 YPRR. All told, he played 15 games and posted 62 catches (on 90 targets) for 869 yards and five scores to finish as the Rams’ top WR in fantasy this season. Kupp was the WR27 in standard formats and WR23 in PPR. He did drop seven passes on 69 “catchable” balls, as his 10.14-percent drop rate ranked 41st out of 45 qualifiers.

Tight end

Entering 2017, the average season of the top-10 rookie TEs of the last decade was 83 fantasy points (5.67 per game), 46 catches, 531 yards, and five TDs on 65 targets. Here’s a quick look at the per-game average of the top-10 fantasy TEs in standard scoring in recent years:

2012 – 7.92 PPG
2013 – 8.87
2014 – 8.61
2015 – 9.03
2016 – 7.83
2017 – 7.45

Evan Engram, New York Giants (No. 2)

Engram turned out to be the exception to what’s become canon in fantasy: avoid rookie tight ends. Since 2010, Rob Gronkowski’s rookie season has stood as the top fantasy season not only of the PFF era, but going all the way back to 1988. Engram came four points shy of Gronkowski in standard scoring with 110 points this season, although he held a 174-156 edge in PPR, which marks the third-best rookie season since the merger behind Keith Jackson (1988) and Charle Young (1973). Also of note, Engram and Gronkowski both made 11 rookie starts, but Engram missed a game while Gronk played all 16 his rookie year.

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 7)

Despite only 26 catches, Howard comes in at No. 7 on the list of top fantasy seasons by a rookie TE in the last decade, thanks largely to six TDs. For some perspective, Hunter Henry’s 2016 rookie season comes in at No. 4, as he caught only 36 passes but scored eight times. Still, Howard wasn’t all that useful in fantasy in 2017, finishing as only TE16/21 (standard/PPR) this season, although it should be noted that he played 14 games.

Honorable mention – George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers; David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Kittle and Njoku both cracked the top-20 of the PFF era despite neither player starting more than seven games. That’s been the trend for rookie TEs, as only two of the top-20 since 2007 started all 16 games of their rookie season (No. 12 Dwayne Allen, No. 20 Zach Miller).