Draft grades? Those matter little in the fantasy realm. We break down the fantasy impact of each team’s draft in this series.
IDP analysis written by Co-IDP Director Ross Miles
Buffalo Bills
By and large, the Bills focused on defense in their draft, and with good reason. Their -20.7 run defense rating was 5th worst in the NFL, their +17.2 pass rush rating was outside the top half of the league, as was their -11.3 pass coverage rating. In fact, 7 of the Bills’ 9 picks were on the defensive side of the ball.
Johnny White – RB
White seemed like a BPA pick, but wasn’t a bad one. Like CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, White is a plus in the passing game, so his role will be very limited in 2011.
Marcel Dareus – DT
He’ll see some snaps at defensive-end, alongside Pro Bowler, Kyle Williams, so that should bump his value, but he’s no Ndamukong Suh. His value depends mainly on how often he lines up to rush the edge, because defensive-ends are more valuable than defensive tackles.
Aaron Williams – CB/S
Williams profiles as a ‘tweener and joins a secondary featuring Jairus Byrd and UFA Donte Whitner. Starting corner Drayton Florence looks likely to leave, so Williams could compete for that role, or Whitner’s spot at SS.
Kelvin Sheppard – ILB
Productive linebackers can be drafted in the mid-rounds, and of the four ILBs on the Bills roster, only Andra Davis is under contract, so Sheppard could be a contributor in 2011. He’s a back-up caliber fantasy LB unless Posluszny doesn’t return.
Da'Norris Searcy – S
At nearly 20lbs heavier than Aaron Williams, Searcy will be pushing for Whitner’s role if he does leave Buffalo for big money when the season resumes. If he becomes the starter he should make a solid fantasy back-up.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins came in lacking a surplus of picks because of the Brandon Marshall trade. 4 of their 6 picks addressed the offense, and they only had 2 picks in the top 100.
Daniel Thomas – RB
As of this moment, Thomas is the ‘feature back’ given that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are as good as gone. However, the Dolphins will likely address the backfield further when free agency opens up. In the interim, Thomas is a tough runner who’s lacking in the passing game, and if the situation stays as it is now, could end up being the best overall rookie RB in redrafts. He has plus durability and has proven that he can handle a good-sized workload.
Edmond Gates – WR
Gates has upside, but is still very raw as a receiver. He’s a deep threat as of now, but needs better coverage recognition and route running. He’s not one to touch in redrafts right now, and is someone to monitor over the very long term in dynasties.
Charles Clay – TE/HB
Clay’s position is a bit of an unknown at this time. He’s a plus for an FB in the receiving game, but needs refinement in many areas, especially sustaining blocks. For fantasy terms, he may be a potential TD vulture if something happens to Daniel Thomas, but shouldn’t be rosterable as of now.
New England Patriots
The Patriots focused their draft on the offensive side, with 6 of 9 picks swinging that way. They also picked up a 1st and 2nd rounder in 2012. The 2011 draft also seems geared for the longterm, as picks like Nate Solder, Ryan Mallett and Marcus Cannon could all pay dividends in 2012 and beyond moreso than 2011.
Shane Vereen – RB
He’s a do-it-all back without any major weaknesses, but is muddled in a big RB stable that caps his upside given how the Patriots tend to use RBs when they’re all healthy. He’s more of a speed threat than a pile pusher, and will likely be more valuable in PPR leagues than standard ones.
Stevan Ridley – RB
Ridley is a near opposite of Vereen in the sense that he’s more of a downhill, pile-moving, short yardage kind of back. He’s not a home run hitter and won’t catch a ton of passes, and he likely won’t see more than 10 touches per game in 2011 barring injury.
Ryan Mallett – QB
The most controversial pick of the 2011 draft may not see a single snap in the 2011 regular season (barring garbage time or injury), but he’s definitely a talent to keep an eye on in dynasties. No one knows if he’s Brady’s heir apparent or simply another trade chip for the genius mind of Bill Belichick, but New England seems to be a great landing spot for him. The theory is that if he can’t get his act together there he won’t get it together period, because he has all the physical tools to succeed.
Lee Smith – TE
Purely a blocking TE, Smith won’t play a significant role in 2011. Ideally, he’s a younger Alge Crumpler who takes over as the 3rd TE when Crumpler hangs up his cleats.
Ras-I Dowling – CB
Dowling is a large bodied corner who will compete with Leigh Bodden to start opposite Devin McCourty. Bodden was injured all of last year after grading +10.2and snagging five interceptions in 2009. He’ll see plenty of time on the field this year.
New York Jets
The Jets drafted true to their core early on – powerful, tough guys. Their first 2 picks were solid defensive linemen, and the next 4 were offensive skill players.
Bilal Powell – RB
Powell was one of my favorite sleepers in this year’s draft, and has some hidden upside if Shonn Greene falters again. However, Powell will likely be the #3 RB at best in 2011, and is more of a downhill runner than a pass catcher, capping his upside in PPR leagues.
Jeremy Kerley – WR
With the uncertainty around NYJ WRs leaving in free agency, Kerley is likely ticketed for slot duties and return duties in the longterm. His short term value purely depends on which NYJ WRs come back (especially the return or release of Brad Smith), but my guess is the majority of his duties will be in the return game in 2011.
Greg McElroy – QB
McElroy projects as a backup to Mark Sanchez at best. His dynasty prospects are stale, but he could be a serviceable spot starter if Sanchez goes down.
Scotty McKnight – WR
Likely wouldn’t have been drafted if he wasn’t a good friend of Mark Sanchez. Leave him alone in all formats.
Muhammad Wilkerson – DT
Will play the 3-4 defensive end role for the Jets, which traditionally is a difficult position to produce enough fantasy points from. If your league classes him as a defensive tackle he’d be an asset to your team, otherwise he’s limited to being fantasy bench filler.
Kenrick Ellis – DT
He has limited fantasy value as a nose tackle in Rex Ryan’s defense, especially with Pouha (+15.8) and DeVito (+22.0) on the roster.
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