With the 2023 NFL Draft inching closer and closer, the PFF editorial team sat down to discuss their favorite picks from the 10-plus mock drafts that have hit PFF.com since February.
Some picks were chosen because of team needs or scheme fit. Others — such as Sam Monson's Titans trade-up for a quarterback at the top of the first round — were selected just because it would be fun to see a few draft prospects land somewhere relatively unexpected. After all, the first day of the draft rarely plays out to everyone's expectations.
We start at No. 1 overall, a pick that has become increasingly uncertain.
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS (VIA CHI): QB ANTHONY RICHARDSON, FLORIDA
I think Bryce Young is the best quarterback prospect in this draft, but if I’m Carolina, I’ve already traded up from No. 9 overall to make this move. I need a huge payoff. I am confident that Young will be a solid NFL quarterback, but will his limitations prevent him from becoming a great one? I don’t know.
Richardson’s elite athleticism and rushing threat give him a very high floor and enough breathing room to improve as a passer — specifically to fix his accuracy. He actually works through progressions and reads defenses well; he just can’t reliably connect with his target. If my coaching staff thinks that’s fixable, Richardson is the biggest potential home run.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS: QB BRYCE YOUNG, ALABAMA
Houston still lands an elite quarterback prospect here in Young, dodging a bullet after a miraculous come-from-behind victory in Week 18 booted them from the No. 1 overall pick. The only concern you can really have about Young is his size because he was as good as it gets in every aspect of quarterback play throughout his Alabama career.
Young’s college tape is some of the best we’ve ever seen when it comes to a quarterback’s pocket presence, poise and calm under pressure. While he can certainly produce early in the shot clock, what makes Young special is what he does when the play breaks down. He earned a 92.2 grade when his time to throw was more than 2.5 seconds, third in the country, with his 79.1% adjusted completion percentage on such plays ranking second. He doesn’t take bad sacks and manufactures offense out of nothing; that’s how you win in the modern era.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: EDGE WILL ANDERSON JR., ALABAMA
Other teams' rumored desperation to jump the Colts for a quarterback may not materialize given how things have shaken out at the position. If everyone stays put, the Cardinals won’t complain too much about landing a prospect of Anderson's caliber.
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: QB WILL LEVIS, KENTUCKY
There is no telling what the Colts could do in this draft. In this scenario, let’s say they stay put. I still think they can get a young quarterback to invest in, whether that is the QB2 or QB3 in this class. That debate will likely come down to Kentucky’s Will Levis or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.
Levis gets a lot of flack from draft readers who point out his lack of production — just 22 big-time throws to 24 turnover-worthy plays — over the past two seasons. But it seems the NFL is much higher on Levis than his numbers might indicate due to their belief in his physical tools and how much better he can be with some improved passing weapons (none of his wide receivers in 2022 earned a 73.0-plus receiving grade). Plus, if play under pressure is a point of emphasis for Colts general manager Chris Ballard, Levis' 58.1 passing grade under pressure beats out Stroud’s 46.2. Levis’ 72.9% adjusted completion percentage was also significantly higher than Stroud’s 50.0%.
Do with those numbers what you will — as will the Colts.
5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: DI JALEN CARTER, GEORGIA
Pete Carroll is the perfect head coach to get the most out of Carter. Adding him and Dre’Mont Jones in the same offseason would supercharge what was a lackluster interior defensive line in 2022.
6. TENNESSEE TITANS (VIA DET): QB C.J. STROUD, OHIO STATE
I don’t love C.J. Stroud as much as others, but he flashed more than enough potential against Georgia (92.2 PFF game grade) for an NFL team to buy in if he starts to slip in the draft. Tennessee jumps up from No. 11 to get its quarterback of the future and finally begin the rebuild.
7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CB CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, OREGON
Gonzalez's traits are difficult to pass on for teams with a need at cornerback, and the Raiders' cornerback room is almost barren at this point.
8. ATLANTA FALCONS: EDGE TYREE WILSON, TEXAS TECH
If the Falcons indeed are content to roll with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, landing a defensive lineman with an 86-inch wingspan would feel like a win on draft night. Wilson had his best pass-rushing season in college last year, racking up 50 pressures from 257 pass-blocking snaps.
– Gordon McGuinness (March 13)
9. CHICAGO BEARS (VIA CAR): T PARIS JOHNSON JR., OHIO STATE
After the first few waves of free agency, one thing seems certain: Whether offense or defense, this Bears pick will be a trench player. Johnson is a versatile offensive lineman with the size and athleticism to play on the inside or at tackle, with his 36 1/4-inch arms landing in the 97th percentile among tackles.
The former Ohio State teammate of Bears quarterback Justin Fields started in 2021 at right guard before moving to left tackle, but he’s a perfect fit in this scheme wherever Chicago ultimately puts him, with great movement skills at the second level for Chicago’s outside-zone rushing attack. Johnson’s 85.5 run-blocking grade on outside-zone runs in 2022 ranked sixth among FBS tackles, and that was at a new position on the other side of the offensive line. If he can get more consistent and continue to develop in both facets, he’s the exact type of tackle that Chicago’s new brass covets.
10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (VIA NO): CB DEVON WITHERSPOON, ILLINOIS
After some uncertainty, the Eagles retained Darius Slay to re-pair with James Bradberry opposite him. That being said, investing in a long-term option who can play inside and outside at cornerback would be smart, and Witherspoon fits that bill.
11. DETROIT LIONS (VIA TEN): CB JOEY PORTER JR., PENN STATE
The Lions trading back from No. 6 makes me feel a lot better about grabbing a cornerback at this spot. Most people would have Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez here, but I worry about a lot of his game. Joey Porter Jr. is the best press-man cornerback in the draft, but he has plenty of zone ability, as well. Over the past two seasons, he earned an 80.0-plus PFF coverage grade in zone coverage.
12. HOUSTON TEXANS (VIA CLEVELAND): T PETER SKORONSKI, NORTHWESTERN
With rumors of Laremy Tunsil potentially on the trade block — and even without them — the Texans should look to the trenches with their second first-round pick. Whether it’s at tackle or guard, Skoronski has the tape to suggest he's a starter at the next level.
13. NEW YORK JETS: T BRODERICK JONES, GEORGIA
“The Jets are obsessed with athleticism on their offensive line. … Broderick Jones, a great athlete, and the Jets need help [at offensive tackle], so no-brainer.”
14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: DB BRIAN BRANCH, ALABAMA
Branch feels like the type of versatile defensive back the Patriots would like to add. Spending most of his time in the slot for Alabama in 2022, he allowed just 36 receptions from 416 snaps in coverage.
– Gordon McGuinness (March 13)
15. GREEN BAY PACKERS: TE DALTON KINCAID, UTAH
Kincaid has game-changing receiving skills at tight end. Green Bay has a receiver room of young wideouts, but Kincaid could add a huge weapon at a spot that still allows Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to develop on the field. Kincaid dropped just two of his 93 targets last season.
16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: RB BIJAN ROBINSON, TEXAS
Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley in 2018, and while the current view of the position league-wide may not see him go second overall, his lasting this long may not be realistic. Robinson led the nation in forced missed tackles in 2022 with 104 — a record since PFF began recording the stat for college football — and placed fifth in yards after contact with 1,071. Importantly in today’s game, he’s also a very capable receiver.
It’s understandable to wonder why this is the pick with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson on the roster already, but Gibson is entering a contract year and Commanders top personnel executives Martin Mayhew and Marty Hurney have never been afraid to use premium draft capital at the position in their various stops across the NFL.
17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: CB DEONTE BANKS, MARYLAND
“They are another team that needs cornerbacks quite badly, as well, so Deonte Banks makes a lot of sense.”
18. DETROIT LIONS: DI CALIJAH KANCEY, PITTSBURGH
The Lions need to add more juice on the interior, and here they do just that. Kancey’s lack of size may cause him to fall even further down the board, but Lions general manager Brad Holmes was the Rams' director of college scouting in 2014 when they selected another undersized interior defender by the name of Aaron Donald out of Pittsburgh at 13th overall.
Kancey’s 92.4 pass-rush grade and 18.1% pressure rate led all FBS interior defenders in 2022, with his 22.7% pass-rush win rate placing second. He was as productive an interior pass rusher as you can find, and even if he has a bit of a specialized role early in his career, it’s a very valuable specialty.
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: T ANTON HARRISON, OKLAHOMA
“I think they are going to cut Donovan Smith. I think his cap is such that it does not make sense with where they are at. So, I think one of the two tackles at this point — Anton Harrison or Broderick Jones. I don't know if you have a favorite between the two, but I lean toward Harrison.”
20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: WR JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, OHIO STATE
Smith-Njigba is one of the smoothest and most productive receivers in this draft class. He would form quite the trio in Seattle with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: DI BRYAN BRESEE, CLEMSON
Bresee feels like a good value here at No. 21. An impressive interior pass rusher, he registered three sacks, four hits and 17 hurries from 203 pass-rushing snaps this past season.
– Gordon McGuinness (March 13)
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS: EDGE NOLAN SMITH, GEORGIA
Baltimore loves adding edge rushers of all shapes and sizes to its defense, and Nolan Smith would be just the latest example. An elite athlete, Smith is also an exceptional run defender despite weighing 238 pounds. He posted a 25.5% pass-rush win rate last season and an elite 14.9% run-stop rate.
23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: WR QUENTIN JOHNSTON, TCU
Minnesota parted ways with longtime wide receiver Adam Thielen, and K.J. Osborn is entering the final year of his contract in 2023. Here, they add a No. 2 option alongside Justin Jefferson who can win on jump balls downfield and also rack up yards after the catch.
Johnston ranked in the top 25 in yards per route run across the FBS in 2022, with his 17 missed tackles forced tied for 13th. While he got shut down against Georgia in the national championship game along with the entire TCU offense, he stepped up in the first round of the College Football Playoff against a stout Michigan defense with a 6-163-1 stat line and did all he could to avoid defeat against Baylor in the Big 12 title game with four receptions for 139 yards. Johnston can become more consistent and use his size more effectively, but there’s a lot to like about his ability going forward.
24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: CB CAM SMITH, SOUTH CAROLINA
With the release of Shaquill Griffin, CB2 became a top need for the Jags. Even with a handful of cornerbacks off the board, they should still have a chance to select a starting-caliber player at the back end of the first round. They’ll love Smith’s fearless mentality.
25. NEW YORK GIANTS: WR ZAY FLOWERS, BOSTON COLLEGE
“Given the way this board fell, Zay Flowers almost has to be the pick. … Giants general manager Joe Schoen said, ‘We want separators' — Flowers is a separator, Wan'Dale Robinson is a separator. They are a little redundant in their roles, possibly, but I think Flowers is much more of an outside wide receiver than Wan'Dale ever will be.”
26. Dallas Cowboys: OL DARNELL WRIGHT, TENNESSEE
While he is listed as a tackle, Wright would have to transition to guard if selected by the Cowboys — a move that would have some precedent. Over the past decade, Dallas' starting guards primarily played tackle in college, including Zack Martin, Ronald Leary, Connor Williams and even La'el Collins (started his NFL career at guard before shifting to tackle in Year 3).
Listed at 6-foot-5 and 333 pounds with 33 3/4-inch arms, Wright would be a massive guard who also tested like an elite athlete for the position (9.98 raw athletic score), giving him the ideal physical profile for the position.
27. BUFFALO BILLS: T DAWAND JONES, OHIO STATE
Jones measured in at 6-foot-8 and 374 pounds in Indianapolis. That’s rare size even for an offensive lineman. In his final season at Ohio State, he allowed just five hurries, with no sacks or hits, from 419 pass-blocking snaps.
– Gordon McGuinness (March 13)
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS: TE MICHAEL MAYER, NOTRE DAME
Mayer is the best all-around tight end in this class. He’s a natural fit within the Bengals' offense, even if free agent acquisition Irv Smith Jr. stays healthy for the first time in his career. Mayer should be a plus blocker right away and can win consistently in an offense already bristling with passing weaponry.
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (VIA DEN): EDGE MYLES MURPHY, CLEMSON
“This feels where Myles Murphy should come off the board. They [the Saints] obviously still have Payton Turner, and you're not relying on Cam Jordan anymore, but they continue to invest at that position.”
30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: DI ADETOMIWA ADEBAWORE, NORTHWESTERN
While you never want to overreact to athletic testing when college tape is available, Adebawore was arguably used out of position a bit at Northwestern as an edge defender on the majority of snaps.
At 6-foot-2 and 282 pounds with his ridiculous explosiveness and get-off, Adebawore belongs as a three-technique interior defender at the next level, and the Eagles need to add more talent there following Javon Hargrave‘s departure in free agency. Adebawore posted a higher pass-rush win rate when lined up between the tackles as compared to when he was out wide, which is counter to the averages at each alignment and illustrates his explosiveness and power up the middle. Give him a few years of coaching with the Eagles, and he could be a terror alongside Jordan Davis.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: WR JORDAN ADDISON, USC
“If they don't re-sign JuJu [Smith-Schuster], Jordan Addison makes sense here. I'm gonna say that JuJu or Mecole Hardman or both get paid somewhere else, and they take Jordan Addison.”
FULL RESULTS
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