This page will be a home base for PFF’s 2024 NFL mock drafts, which include analysis of individual draft prospects, trade scenarios and NFL team needs.
While the draft order and team needs may change between now and April 2024, past mock drafts are a good barometer of the sentiments around certain draft prospects. Has their stock risen over the season? Has it fallen due to underwhelming testing numbers? Will someone take off out of nowhere at the last minute in the same way Travon Walker did in 2022?
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1. CHICAGO BEARS: QB CALEB WILLIAMS, USC
If the Bears are picking at No. 1, the top quarterback prospect will land in Chicago. Williams has earned elite grades of 91.3, 91.8 and 90.8 in each of his three college football seasons. The Bears won’t pass on picking at the top again.
2. CHICAGO BEARS (VIA PANTHERS): WR MARVIN HARRISON JR., OHIO STATE
If you’re taking the top quarterback at No. 1, you better give him the offensive weapons to produce. Harrison, the son of Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison Sr., could be a WR1 in the league today with his combination of size, speed and skill. Last season, he recorded an 89.9 receiving grade with more than 1,200 receiving yards and a nation-leading 36 explosive plays of 15 yards or more
1. *TRADE* NEW YORK GIANTS (VIA ARZ): QB CALEB WILLIAMS, USC
With Daniel Jones struggling when healthy and now potentially out for the year with a knee injury, the Giants will likely finish within striking distance of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Here, they get aggressive to ensure this season is a fluke and not the start of a trend.
Williams struggled mightily during the middle part of the college football season, making zero big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays in three games (Colorado, Arizona and Notre Dame). However, he has since bounced back with 11 big-time throws and just three turnover-worthy plays in his past three outings (Utah, Cal and Washington). He is still the high-ceiling prospect who does things few other quarterbacks can do, one who is worthy of the No. 1 pick.
2. CHICAGO BEARS: QB DRAKE MAYE, NORTH CAROLINA
Maye has been as advertised this season. His 23 big-time throws are the most in the FBS. If the Bears are picking in the top two — and they have two chances to do so — they won’t be passing on a quarterback again.
2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0: Four QBs go in the first round, including Caleb Williams to the Bears and Drake Maye to the Patriots
1. CHICAGO BEARS (VIA CAR): QB CALEB WILLIAMS, USC
The Bears can reset their quarterback contract window here, and they should do so. Williams has recorded elite offensive grades in each of his three seasons of college football. This season is his lowest (90.3) due to the highest turnover-worthy play rate of his career (3.5%). He is capable of magical high-end plays, but there is no doubt he has to play more on schedule and in structure, on top of improving his ball security, to be able to showcase those out-of-structure plays in the NFL.
2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: QB DRAKE MAYE, NORTH CAROLINA
The Patriots are completely lost on offense, with no identity and no quarterback to build around. Maye has established himself as one of the top gunslingers in college football over the past two years. He made 38 big-time throws for an 8.7% big-time throw rate last season and has 32 such throws this year at a 7.5% clip. In both seasons, he recorded a sub-2.0% turnover-worthy play rate. Maye brings pro-level ability as a passer in all situations.