NFL Draft News & Analysis

2024 NFL Mock Draft: 3 QBs are selected in first 3 picks while Giants and Jets trade into top 5

2T75M93 November 11, 2023: LSU's Jayden Daniels (5) delivers a pass during NCAA football game action between the Florida Gators and the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA. Jonathan Mailhes/CSM (Credit Image: © Jonathan Mailhes/Cal Sport Media) (Cal Sport Media via AP Images)


• Both the New York Giants and New York Jets trade up into the top five: Both teams move up to get a player that wouldn’t fall to them.

• Five quarterbacks in the top 10: Enough teams have a need at quarterback that most teams will need to trade up to ensure they get the quarterback they want.

• Draft and trade for yourself: Try PFF's Mock Draft Simulator — trade picks and players and mock for your favorite NFL team.

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While most mock drafts only include one or two trades, mostly focused on the Minnesota Vikings trading up for a quarterback, this mock draft will includes 10 trades. More than half of the first round picks over the last two seasons were traded at some point, so that philosophy was followed here. 

This mock draft is what I think will happen rather than what I would do at each pick. It will likely result in a less accurate mock draft than other mocks due to the number of trades, but should give a sense to which teams might be trading up or trading down in a week, and who they might be targeting.

First round

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): QB Caleb Williams, USC

Everyone believes the Bears will pick Williams here, including myself.

2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

This selection is a toss-up between Daniels and Maye. While Maye has the better ranking on our big board, both players have been betting favorites to end up with the Commanders at various points of time in the last month. Adam Schefter has said that signs are pointing to Daniels here, so this mock will also lean Daniels.

3. New York Giants (from New England): QB Drake Maye, North Carolina

Projected trade: Giants receive Pick No. 3; Patriots receive Pick Nos. 6, 47 and a 2025 third-round pick.

There were reports a month ago the Patriots scouts aren’t sold on Drake Maye. Plenty could have changed in the past month, but the Patriots also need to upgrade at multiple positions. Plenty of teams probably want to trade up to this spot, but the Giants are the main team looking for a quarterback whereas the Patriots could trade back and still be in a position to take a quarterback. 

Maye has been compared to Josh Allen, so who better to coach Maye than Allen’s former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll?

4. New York Jets (from Arizona): WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

Projected trade: Jets receive Pick No. 4; Cardinals receive Pick Nos. 10, 72, a 2025 second-round pick and WR Allen Lazard. 

Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort had no problem trading back multiple times during his first NFL draft in 2023. He traded the third overall pick to the Houston Texans and traded back again at the start of the second round. He also did it a third time with their third-round compensatory pick. While the Cardinals need a new top wide receiver, they can also pick one a little later.

 The Jets on the other hand are all in for 2024 with a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers. They already made one notable upgrade at wide receiver with Mike Williams, and they could use a third. Our player comparison for Harrison in our draft guide is a taller Davante Adams, making him a great option for Rodgers.

Click here to see Joe Alt's 2024 NFL Draft profile.

5. Minnesota Vikings (from Los Angeles Chargers): QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

Projected trade: Vikings receive Pick Nos. 5, 69; Chargers receive Pick Nos. 11, 23 and 129

It’s no secret the Vikings are looking to trade up for a quarterback after the Vikings moved up from 42 to 23 a month ago. There are other teams that would also be looking to trade up, but the Vikings have the most ammunition so they are most likely to strike a deal. McCarthy is the top quarterback available at this point, and is a pretty common pairing with the Vikings in mock drafts.

6. Chicago Bears (from New York Giants through New England): WR Malik Nabers, LSU

First projected trade: Patriots receive Pick Nos. 6, 47 and a 2025 third-round pick; Giants receive Pick No. 3.
Second projected trade: Bears receive Pick No. 6; Patriots receive Pick No. 9, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2025 fourth-round pick.

The Patriots are tied for the second-most trade downs during the draft over the last decade. It’s unclear if that trend will continue without Bill Belichick, but it would make sense for the Patriots to add as many picks as they can to rebuild the roster. That’s why they are trading back a second time. 

The Bears have the fewest picks in this draft, but that hasn’t stopped rumors of Chicago trading up to pick one of the top three wide receivers. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is used to having three strong wide receiver options during his time with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, and a trade-up for Nabers could give him his best wide receiver trio yet.

7. Tennessee Titans: T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

The Titans had five offensive tackles with at least 100 offensive snaps last season. Veteran Andre Dillard was released, and Chris Hubbard hasn’t been re-signed. Dillon Radunz can start at right tackle, but Nicholas Petit-Frere and Jaelyn Duncan both had PFF grades below 40. The Titans need a left tackle and have a chance to pick the best offensive lineman in the draft. After Caleb Williams to the Bears, this might be one of the biggest locks of the draft.

8. Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama

Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot almost never trades back and has little reason to trade up. Atlanta’s edge defenders had a combined 59.3 PFF pass-rush grade last season, ranking fourth-worst. Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell have remained unsigned, leaving them with Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie and Zach Harrison. All three had pass rush win rates under 12% and PFF pass rush grades under 70. Similar to the Titans, the Falcons can fill arguably their biggest need with the best option available.

9. New England Patriots (from Chicago): QB Bo Nix, Oregon

Projected trade: Patriots receive Pick No. 9, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2025 fourth-round pick; Bears receive Pick No. 6. 

The Patriots are still in a position to take a quarterback after trading back twice. After two trades, they add a second-round pick in this draft and multiple Day 2 picks for next year. If they fell in love with a quarterback, they are less likely to trade back, but they seemingly are interested in Nix. They brought multiple people to Oregon’s pro day. If the Patriots can pull these trades off and land Nix, they could be one of the big winners of the draft.

10. Arizona Cardinals (from New York Jets): WR Rome Odunze, Washington

Projected trade: Cardinals receive Pick Nos. 10, 72, a 2025 second-round pick and WR Allen Lazard; Jets receive Pick No. 4.

This draft class is full of great wide receiver options, but three stand above the rest, and the Cardinals are able to trade back and still pick up one of those three receivers. Arizona arguably has the weakest wide receiver room in the league after Marquise Brown‘s departure, so whichever receiver lands with the team should lead the rookie class in targets.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (from Minnesota): TE Brock Bowers, Georgia 

Projected trade: Chargers receive Pick Nos. 11, 23 and 129; Vikings receive Pick Nos. 5, 69. 

The Chargers need receiving help after losing both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The top-tier wide receivers are gone, but the clear top tight end in the class is still available. New head coach Jim Harbaugh led the 49ers offense with tight end Vernon Davis as the top receiving option at times, and the Chargers offense could follow the same pattern with Bowers.

12, New Orleans Saints (from Denver): T Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

Projected trade: Saints receive Pick No. 12 and a 2025 fourth-round pick; Broncos receive Pick No. 14 and a 2025 third-round pick

The Saints have traded up the second-most of any team in the last decade with no tradebacks. It’s certainly possible they trade up higher, but at the very least, they can trade up ahead of the Raiders, who could also be looking for offensive line help. The Saints benched former first-round pick Trevor Penning last season, and he is currently penciled in at left tackle. Even if Penning turns his career around, Ryan Ramczyk is about to turn 30 years old and posted the worst PFF offensive grade of his career last season. 

The Broncos will likely attempt to trade up, but considering the number of teams who pick ahead of them that also want a quarterback, it will be difficult to find a trade partner. Instead, they trade back.

Click here to see Taliese Fuaga's 2024 NFL Draft profile.

13. Las Vegas Raiders: T Troy Fautanu, Washington

The Raiders added Tom Telesco as their new general manager. He spent the last decade with the Los Angeles Chargers, where they were the least likely team to make a draft day trade. While the Raiders are one of several teams looking for a quarterback, they probably won’t land one unless someone falls. While Thayer Munford Jr. played well as an injury replacement at times last season, Fautanu would be an upgrade at right tackle.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars (from New Orleans through Denver): CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

First projected trade: Broncos receive Pick No. 14 and a 2025 third-round pick; Saints receive Pick No. 12 and a 2025 fourth-round pick. 
Second projected trade: Jaguars receive Pick No. 14; Broncos receive Pick Nos. 17, 116 

The middle part of the draft will be interesting, as no cornerbacks have been picked and multiple teams picking in this range could use a new cornerback. Ideally, a team wanting their pick among the cornerbacks would trade up directly above the Colts. That would be difficult with the Raiders and Saints general managers, but it works in this case with the Broncos willing to trade back twice. 

The Jaguars and Trent Baalke aren’t afraid to trade up or back, and the team needs a more long-term replacement to Darious Williams than a 30-year-old Ronald Darby. 

15. Indianapolis Colts: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo

The Colts are set at slot cornerback with Kenny Moore II, but the young trio of Darrell Baker Jr., Jaylon Jones and JuJu Brents on the outside struggled. Colts defenders had a 30.2 team PFF coverage grade when outside wide receivers were targeted last season, which was the lowest mark among teams. The Colts with Chris Ballard will probably make multiple trades on Day 2 and Day 3, but they are less likely to make a Day 1 trade given their needs and where cornerbacks will get picked.

16. Philadelphia Eagles (from Seattle): CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama

Projected trade: Eagles receive Pick Nos. 16, 118; Seahawks receive Pick Nos. 22, 53.

The Seahawks' biggest need is their interior offensive line, but they can likely draft one of their top targets later. The Eagles are another one of several teams who would consider a cornerback, and trading up ensures them one of the top three. Both Darius Slay and James Bradberry had down seasons and are over 30 years old. Arnold could replace either one sooner rather than later. 

17. Denver Broncos (from Jacksonville): EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA

Projected trade: Broncos receive Pick Nos. 17, 116; Jaguars receive Pick No. 14. 

The Broncos weren’t able to secure a top-five quarterback in this mock draft, but they were able to pick up multiple picks and still add a top-12 player from our big board. Edge defender isn’t necessarily the biggest need for the Broncos who have multiple solid role players, but Latu would still be an upgrade to the defense.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: DI Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

The Bengals are one of the least likely teams to make a trade. Their biggest loss of the offseason was D.J. Reader, and they didn’t have much depth at defensive tackle outside of him. They added Sheldon Rankins, who is a fine veteran short-term replacement, but Newton would be an instant contributor to their defense.

Click here to see Jer'Zhan Newton's 2024 NFL Draft profile.

19. Buffalo Bills (from Los Angeles Rams): WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU 

Projected trade: Bills receive Pick No. 19; Rams receive Pick Nos. 28, 128 and a 2025 third-round pick. 

The Rams' biggest needs are at edge defender, cornerback and linebacker, but there isn’t necessarily a great value for them at any of those positions at this pick. The Bills, on the other hand, have a high need for a wide receiver after losing Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty and adding Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins. A trade-up will ensure they get whichever remaining receiver they would like, especially when the Pittsburgh Steelers pick next and they could be looking to add a receiver.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: T Olu Fashanu, Penn State

The Steelers are one of two teams to average less than one trade per year involving swapping draft picks, making it likely they stand pat at 20. One of their biggest needs is at tackle where Dan Moore Jr. and Broderick Jones had PFF offensive grades below 60 including pass-blocking grades below 50.

21. Miami Dolphins: DI Byron Murphy II, Texas

Dolphins general manager Chris Grier is less likely than most to make a draft day trade, and there isn’t much need to when one of the top two interior defenders falls to them at 21. Miami lost two of their top three interior defenders in Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis. The Dolphins brought in three veterans to help replace them, but all three are role players who had PFF defensive grades under 60 last season.

22. Seattle Seahawks (from Philadelphia): C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon

Projected trade: Seahawks receive Pick Nos. 22, 53; Eagles receive Pick Nos. 16, 118. 

The Seahawks lost their starting center Evan Brown in free agency, and the Seahawks haven’t invested much in potential replacements. Seattle was able to trade back and still land the top interior offensive linemen in the draft.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (from Cleveland through Houston and Minnesota): T J.C. Latham, Alabama 

Projected trade: Chargers receive Pick Nos. 11, 23 and 129; Vikings receive Pick Nos. 5, 69. 

The Chargers picked up a second first-round pick after their trade with Minnesota, and they can continue to re-work their offense. The Chargers offense could survive with another year of Trey Pipkins III at right tackle, but he’s posted back-to-back seasons with a run block grade below 51, which isn’t ideal for Jim Harbaugh’s offense.

24. Dallas Cowboys: C Graham Barton, Duke 

Jerry Jones hasn’t made many draft day trades over the last decade, and the Cowboys have enough needs that they can stand pat and find value at a need position at this pick. Their starting center Tyler Biadasz left for the Washington Commanders, and the only viable option on the roster is Brock Hoffman, who posted a 53.7 PFF grade on 222 snaps last season. Barton played left tackle in college, but his best position in the NFL is at center according to our draft guide.

Click here to see Graham Barton's 2024 NFL Draft profile.

25. Green Bay Packers: S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota 

The Packers could trade up or trade back, but for this mock draft, they stand pat to get the best safety of the draft. They mostly used Jonathan Owens, Darnell Savage and Rudy Ford last season, and none of them were re-signed for this year. They spent big in free agency on Xavier McKinney, but the Packers still need a second safety.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State 

Jason Licht isn’t afraid to trade up to get his guy, but he probably won’t need to in order to find his Shaquil Barrett replacement. Last season, they had Barrett with his 56 pressures, and three players with a PFF grade around 60. They added Randy Gregory, who is coming off a down season, but even if Gregory rebounds, they could still use an upgrade across from him.

27. New England Patriots (from Houston through Arizona): T Amarius Mims, Georgia 

Projected trade: Patirots receive Pick No. 27; Cardinals receive Pick Nos. 34, 103.

As mentioned earlier, the Cardinals are not afraid to trade back and acquire more picks. Any team looking to trade back into Round 1 should be looking at this pick. Here, the Patriots, who already traded back twice, trade up to add an offensive tackle. Trent Brown was the Patriots' highest-graded offensive player last season, and he left in free agency.

28. Los Angeles Rams (from Buffalo): CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson 

Projected trade: Rams receive Pick Nos. 28, 128 and a 2025 third-round pick; Bills receive Pick No. 19.

The Rams traded back and still have multiple options to help a need position. Los Angeles added Darious Williams and Tre’Davious White after both players were cap cuts, but Williams is already 31 years old and White has played under 650 defensive snaps each of the last three seasons. Los Angeles will need another outside cornerback sooner rather than later.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Detroit): WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia 

Projected trade: Chiefs receive Pick No. 29; Lions receive Pick Nos. 32, 159. 

Many have fallen in love with the idea of McConkey in the Chiefs offense, but there is also a chance the Baltimore Ravens or San Francisco 49ers could be interested in his services. At this point of the draft, it shouldn’t take much to move up three spots.

30. Baltimore Ravens: WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas 

While the Ravens offense had an excellent season and now has Derrick Henry, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Zay Flowers had a promising rookie season, but he’s the only wide receiver on the roster who is assured a roster spot by 2025. Mitchell’s size and route tree could complement Flowers well in the Ravens offense.

31. San Francisco 49ers: T Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma

The 49ers used Colton McKivitz to replace Mike McGlinchey at right tackle last season to mixed results. Left tackle Trent Williams will be 36 years old by the start of the season, so the 49ers could use two new tackles sooner rather than later. Luckily, this draft is full of good offensive tackles at the start of the draft, although the 49ers could trade up if they really like one of the other players. 

32. Detroit Lions (from Kansas City): CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama

Projected trade: Lions receive Pick Nos. 32, 159; Chiefs receive Pick No. 29.

Cornerback was a problem position for Detroit last season. They added both Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson in free agency, but neither player has a PFF coverage grade above 70 in either of the last two seasons. McKinstry doesn’t need to be a Week 1 starter but should be able to overtake one of those players on the depth chart by 2025.

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