Betting News & Analysis

NFL Betting 2022: 5 mispriced player props in Week 11

Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) heads upfield past Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage (26) after catching a pass in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The betting prop plays are back after a short hiatus. These picks went 3-for-5 back in Week 9 to bring the season total to up 7.8 units on 41 touted props this season. Here are the ones I’m eyeing for Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season.

QB Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers: Under .5 Interceptions vs. Ravens (+159)

Yes, Mayfield has been laughably bad this season for the Panthers. His 51.9 overall grade ranks second-to-last in the NFL. That being said, it’s not because he’s been especially turnover prone. In fact, his 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate is ninth-best among starters in the NFL. That’s at least worth taking a shot on with the juiced odds.

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QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets: Under .5 Touchdowns vs. Patriots (+157)

Wilson has been held out of the end zone in precisely half of his six starts this season. That track record alone makes these odds look favorable. Add in the fact that the Patriots have allowed the lowest expected points added per dropback figure of any defense in the league this season (-.198), and you can see why it might be difficult for Wilson to get into the end zone through the air this week. 

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RB Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons: Under 44.5 Rushing Yards vs. Bears (-112)

In two games since returning from his early-season knee injury, Patterson has played a far smaller role than he did previously. After averaging 40 snaps per game in his three healthy games early on, Patterson has played only 24 snaps in each of the past two weeks after the emergence of Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley. So even against a porous Bears run defense that ranks third-to-last by PFF grading, too many situations could arise where Patterson doesn’t even get the opportunities to go over the prop here. 

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RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: Under 66.5 Rushing Yards vs. Steelers (-120)

In nine games this season, Mixon has gone over this prop only three times. While one of those happened to be the last time we saw the Bengals play against the Panthers in Week 9, when he went for 153 yards on the ground, we’ve seen enough of this Bengals offense to know their Jekyll and Hyde nature.

The Steelers' defense looks like a much different animal, as well, following T.J. Watt‘s return. They allowed only 10 points to the Saints last week, holding them to only 29 yards on 15 carries. That’s a lot of arrows pointing toward the under.

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WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: Under 75.5 Receiving Yards vs. Giants (-116)

St. Brown is going to get the opportunities. That much has never been debated. In the seven full games he’s played this season, St. Brown has averaged 9.9 targets per game. The problem is that he went over this prop in only two of those outings. Exacerbating that is the fact that St. Brown suffered a minor ankle injury in the fourth quarter last week against the Bears. He returned to the game later on, but even still, he’s been banged up quite a bit this season and it’s shown in his numbers.

The flip side is that the Giants' ball-control style doesn’t lead to a lot of points or opportunities for opposing offenses. They’ve allowed opposing offenses to run the fourth-fewest plays of any defense in the NFL this season (570) and, as such, have allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards. 

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