NFL News & Analysis

Data-driven Player Prop Picks for NFL Week 11: Bet Daniel Jones, Darnell Mooney, more

Jacksonville, Florida, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) scrambles with the ball as Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Josh Allen (41) defends during the first quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Giants QB Daniel Jones o34.5 rush yards: Hasn't run as much lately, but still averaging 0.87 rushing yards over expected, and 5.54 yards per designed run, Jones is in good buy-low spot vs one of NFL's worst run defenses.

• Detroit has allowed 6 opposing QBs to hit their rushing-yardage prop this season, including Justin Fields (171), Geno Smith (49) and Aaron Rodgers (41).

Bet Bears WR Darnell Mooney o43.5 receiving yards at Falcons: Justin Fields' preferred target has 43+ receiving yards in 7 consecutive games; betting on WR yardage props vs Atlanta has been profitable all season long.

Last updated: Nov. 18, 1:00 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins


Player Props have one of the most popular markets offered in sportsbooks right now. Because of its similarity to fantasy football, something most bettors grew up playing, it’s easy to translate the thought process from fantasy football to player props. Here at PFF, you can utilize the Best Bets tab on the website to help sift through the most +EV props to bet on based on our model to help with your betting success. 


Bet: New York Giants QB Daniel Jones — Over 34.5 rushing yards (-115) @ Detroit Lions

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 36.5

Six opposing QBs have hit their rushing prop vs Lions: Detroit has been getting absolutely torched by QB rushing yards this season, allowing the most of any defense in the NFL. Justin Fields ran for 141 yards, Aaron Rodgers ran for 41 yards, and Geno Smith ran for 49 yards. 

They especially struggle vs zone-read runs, allowing 7.7 yards per attempt this year, including Fields' Week 10 demolition.

Daniel Jones hasn’t used his legs as often as he did early in the season: In the past 2 weeks, game script didn’t call for it vs the Houston Texans, and the Seattle Seahawks did a good job of containing him. However, in 2022, he’s still averaging 0.87 rushing yards over expected, and 5.54 yards per attempt on designed runs. Against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL, this is a good buy-low spot.

Bet: Chicago Bears WR Darnell Mooney — Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115) @ Atlanta Falcons

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 45.5

While the Bears' recent offensive explosion has mostly come via their ground attack: Mooney has quietly strung together some nice performances for Chicago. He’s had 43 or more receiving yards in his past 7 games, and has been Justin Fields’ preferred target through the air.

Betting overs on WR receiving yards vs Atlanta has been profitable: As analyst Ben Brown highlighted in his midseason prop review, and we’re going back to it this week.

A few recent WR1 performances vs the Falcons: Josh Palmer (106 yards), D.J. Moore (152 yards), Ja’Marr Chase (130 yards), Deebo Samuel (79 yards), Mike Evans (81 yards). 

Even if A.J. Terrell returns: There’s still a good chance Mooney goes over this total. After missing Weeks 7-10 with a hamstring injury, Terrell may not be shadowing in his first game back, leaving Mooney to take advantage of a pretty weak secondary.

Bet: Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin — Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115) @ Houston Texans

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 62.5

With Taylor Heinicke starting the past four games, no teammate commanding the ball more than McLaurin: In 4 Heinicke starts, McLaurin has racked up 73, 113, 56, and 128 yards, respectively, with each game vs some pretty good secondaries. Even without Heinicke, McLaurin is averaging 73.7 receiving yards per game over the course of the season

• Texans secondary near the bottom of NFL in EPA/dropback and dropback success rate allowed: With top pick Derek Stingley also a game-time decision with a hamstring injury, this makes McLaurin’s matchup even better as he could draw Tavierre Thomas

Houston has allowed the 12th most receiving yards on the perimeter: Which is where McLaurin lines up a majority of the time.

Bet: Denver Broncos RB Melvin Gordon — Under 37.5 rushing yards (-115) @ Las Vegas Raiders

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 35.5

Ugly Denver timeshare: All 3 running backs are getting a small share of the workload, according to this chart by Nathan Jahnke. In his first game with Denver, Chase Edmonds saw 12 snaps, 6 of which came on early downs. Gordon handled most of the late-down and 2-minute work, but he played less than 50% of early-down snaps.

Averaging -1.01 rushing yards over expected, Gordon has gone under his rushing prop number in 8 straight games: It's easy to see why he's on a very short leash by this coaching staff, as Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds are quality backs.  

Raiders' strength is in their run defense (4.2 yards per attempt to running backs and a -0.098 EPA/rush allowed): They really struggle through the air (last in EPA/dropback and 31st in dropback success rate allowed) which is also where we can expect Denver to attack them this Sunday.


Arjun’s data driven prop bets went 2-2 (-0.1 units) last week which brings his season record to 18-23 (-5.3 units) on article plays.

 

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