NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Picks: Josh Allen, AJ Brown, Brock Purdy

Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scrambles away from Miami Dolphins linebacker Jaelan Phillips (15) during the second half in a NFL wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Allen UNDER 50.5 rushing yards: The Bengals are simply one of the best defenses against quarterback scrambles in the NFL this year, ranking 10th in EPA per play against scrambles.

A.J. Brown‘s longest reception OVER 25.5 yards: Brown currently ranks second in total yards against man coverage, has a 3.39 yards per route run, and an 89.7 PFF receiving grade against man coverage this year, which is why his longest reception should exceed 25.5 yards. 

Brock Purdy OVER 1.5 passing TDs: Since Week 12 and including their wild-card game, the 49ers rank second in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, so expect Purdy to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns this weekend.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins

Player props have one of the most popular markets offered in sportsbooks right now. Because of its similarity to fantasy football — something most bettors grew up playing — it’s easy to translate the thought process from fantasy football to player props. Here at PFF, you can utilize the best bets function to help sift through the most positive expected value props to bet on based on our model to help with your betting success. 

Josh Allen under 50.5 rushing yards (-115 @ PointsBet) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bet game plan: Play down to 46.5 rushing yards.

  • The Bengals are simply one of the best defenses against quarterback scrambles in the NFL this year. So far in 2022, they rank 10th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed to scrambles, fourth in success rate and the second-least amount of QB scramble yards this season. 
  • The only QBs to surpass 50 yards against the Bengals this season have been Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. While the Bengals defense has struggled a little bit against designed QB runs (second worst yards per carry allowed), the Bills offense will look to throw first and foremost, as it has a 6.1% pass rate over expected this season.
  • The Bengals also primarily play zone defense, meaning they will have a lot of eyes on the QBs at the second and third levels, which should help to limit scrambling yards and keep Allen contained in the pocket.

A.J. Brown‘s longest reception over 25.5 yards (-114 @ Fanduel) vs. New York Giants

Bet game plan: Play down to -120 odds.

  • The Giants are one of the blitz-heaviest teams in the NFL and play a lot of man coverage as well. While New York is getting Adoree' Jackson back for this game, there are very few cornerbacks who can slow down Brown. In their Week 14 and 18 matchups, Brown took advantage of CBs Nick McCloud and Rodarius Williams over the top, catching 33- and 37-yard passes.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line will give Hurts time to throw to find Brown on these deep passes, and even if Brown catches it before 25 yards, he’s one of the best receivers in the league at generating yards after catch.
  • Brown currently ranks second in total yards against man coverage, has a 3.39 yards per route run, and an 89.7 PFF receiving grade against man coverage this year.

Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing TDs (-130 @ Draftkings) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Bet game plan: Play down to -140 odds.

  • Since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo as the San Francisco 49ers QB, Purdy has thrown two or more TDs in every single game. His production and efficiency are very similar to Garoppolo, but Shanahan seems to trust him more in the red zone due to his mobility and ability to perform better under pressure.
  • The Cowboys defense is very good, but the 49ers offense at full strength is better. While the Cowboys defense is very aggressive, and that typically works vs average or subpar offenses, no playcaller can leverage defensive aggressiveness better than Kyle Shanahan, and we could see that this weekend in San Francisco.
  • Since Week 12 and including their wild-card game, the 49ers rank second in expected points added (EPA) per dropback.

Visit BetMGM.com for Terms and Conditions and other state-specific responsible gaming resources. Players must be 21 years of age or older to wager. AZ, CO, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, MS, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, WA, WV, or WY. 19+ in Ontario.

New Customer Offer (if applicable). All promotions are subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are issued as non-withdrawable free bets or site credit. Free bets expire 7 days from issuance. Excludes Michigan Disassociated Persons. Please Gamble Responsibly.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (DC, IL, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, WV, WY, VA), Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 1-800-547-6133 (WA). In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor, free of charge.

Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah and other states where prohibited. Promotional offers not available in Nevada and New York. Risk-free offers are not valid in Ohio.

Safety worth way more than 2 points. Help protect your family with fast, free will.
Sponsor
NFL Featured Tools
Subscriptions

Unlock the 2024 Fantasy Draft Kit, with Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Mock Draft Sim, Rankings & PFF Grades

$24.99/mo
OR
$119.99/yr