This week’s card leans heavily on matchup edges: AD Mitchell gets a blitz rate he can exploit, Bo Nix faces a Washington defense allergic to disruption, and Demario Douglas draws the man-coverage looks he’s dominated all season. Together, they form a trio of data-backed bets with clear paths to ceiling performances.
Sun, 30 Nov 25 10:30:00 +0000
Houston’s league-best perfect-coverage rate leaves Daniel Jones in a difficult matchup, especially for a Colts offense that has relied heavily on exploiting coverage mistakes. Meanwhile, Washington’s inability to generate disruption sets up a clean-pocket script for Bo Nix, making Denver’s passing attack and team-total overs strong targets.
Sun, 30 Nov 25 10:15:00 +0000
The Buccaneers are being priced like an average offense, but their recent form paints a far different picture, with Tampa Bay ranking near the bottom of the league in nearly every offensive metric over the past six weeks. With Jacoby Brissett excelling on deep throws and several matchup angles tilting in Arizona’s favor, the Cardinals are a live underdog against an overvalued Tampa Bay team.
Sun, 30 Nov 25 10:00:00 +0000
Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift powered a dominant ground attack, combining for 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns as the Chicago Bears beat the Philadelphia Eagles 24-15 for their fifth straight win. Chicago piled up 281 rushing yards overall and turned a late third-quarter tush-push fumble by Jalen Hurts into the decisive touchdown drive, capped by Monangai’s 4-yard score and a 28-yard insurance strike from Caleb Williams to Cole Kmet.
Sat, 29 Nov 25 00:34:48 +0000
Joe Burrow returned from injury to throw two second-half touchdown passes, sparking the Cincinnati Bengals to a 32-14 win and snapping Baltimore’s five-game winning streak. The Ravens unraveled with five turnovers — including three by Lamar Jackson and a goal-line fumble by Isaiah Likely — allowing Cincinnati to pull away on scoring grabs by Tanner Hudson and Andrei Iosivas.
Fri, 28 Nov 25 05:07:39 +0000
Dak Prescott threw two touchdowns and Malik Davis broke free for a 43-yard score as the Dallas Cowboys edged the Kansas City Chiefs 31-28 on Thanksgiving. Patrick Mahomes kept Kansas City in it with four touchdown passes — including two on fourth down — and a late 42-yard strike to Xavier Worthy that set up a Hollywood Brown score, but Dallas protected its lead on the final drive.
Fri, 28 Nov 25 02:04:33 +0000
Chicago enters with a high floor on the ground and real reasons to expect more scoring success than the market is giving them credit for against this Eagles defense. Put it all together, and 7 points is simply too many — the Bears are very live to upset an overrated Philadelphia team.
Thu, 27 Nov 25 12:30:00 +0000
The Browns' defensive line ranks first in every major PFF metric through 12 weeks of the 2025 season. They own the league’s top overall grade, pass-rush grade and run-defense grade, and they also lead all defensive lines in PFF WAR. On the field, the dominance shows up just as clearly: they have the most sacks and the most defensive stops of any unit in the NFL.
Thu, 27 Nov 25 12:15:00 +0000
Advanced coverage grade uses machine learning to map the separation allowed on a play to the expected PFF coverage grade the player would have earned had they been targeted. This system also takes into account the difficulty of the assignment and the situation when making that assessment.
Thu, 27 Nov 25 12:05:00 +0000
PFF’s media research team has spent the week pulling every key metric, matchup note and data-driven talking point used by our broadcast partners across the league. Now, those same insights are yours. Whether you’re setting lineups, placing bets or just looking to sound like the smartest fan at the Thanksgiving table, here are the must-know analytics and storylines for every Thanksgiving matchup.
Thu, 27 Nov 25 11:45:00 +0000-
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