- Notre Dame faces little margin for error: The Fighting Irish are just 2-3 before mid-September over the past two seasons and face Wisconsin at Lambeau Field on Sept. 6.
- Oregon draws a dangerous trip to Stillwater: Oklahoma State added quarterback Drew Mestemaker and several weapons from an offense that won 12 games last season.
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The expanded College Football Playoff has changed how contenders approach early-season games, whether they’d like to admit it or not. An early defeat no longer carries the same weight it once did, and even two losses can be overcome if a team responds with a dominant run through conference play.
Notre Dame remains the obvious exception here, as proven last year. By remaining independent, the Fighting Irish still operate with one of the smallest margins for error in the country.
Meanwhile, the transfer portal has made roster turnover more significant than ever. Even the elite programs are often still figuring out their strongest lineups during the opening weeks of the season. This creates opportunities for dangerous opponents capable of catching a championship hopeful before they fully click into gear.
A few contenders narrowly missed the cut. Ohio State faces Texas in one of the biggest games of the season, so there is nothing “trap game” about that matchup for either side. For the Buckeyes, that game is sandwiched between home encounters against Ball State and Kent State, giving them little concern.
Elsewhere, Indiana’s early schedule also looks relatively forgiving. The defending national champions could have faced a dangerous opener had North Texas retained last year’s explosive offense, but Eric Morris took that attack elsewhere, as you’ll see in this article. Instead, the Hoosiers begin as heavy favorites against North Texas before hosting Howard and Western Kentucky. They won’t even leave Bloomington until October.
The team they took down in the National Championship Game, Miami, also avoids this list. Two early ACC road trips look awkward at first glance, but Stanford and Wake Forest are both expected to finish near the bottom of the conference.
Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (Lambeau Field) — Sept. 6
Notre Dame enters this neutral site game as a 20-point favorite over a Wisconsin team that limped to a 4-8 campaign last season, but recent history suggests the Fighting Irish are more vulnerable in September than later in the year.
Over the past two seasons, Notre Dame is just 2-3 before the middle of September and an incredible 22-1 after that point. Marcus Freeman’s teams have developed a habit of improving rapidly as the season progresses.
Wisconsin is not on the level of the Texas A&M or Miami teams that handed Notre Dame early defeats last year, but the Badgers should at least look very different offensively after significant personnel turnover. Given how last season unfolded, that may not be a bad thing.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr will also be dealing with genuine Heisman expectations for the first time. He protected the football well last season, recording only 11 turnover-worthy plays, but his mistakes tended to come in bunches. Three separate games accounted for three turnover-worthy throws apiece, showing how quickly things can unravel when pressure builds.
Then there is the environment this game takes place in. A Sunday evening matchup at Lambeau Field is unlike anything either team experiences during a normal game week. Neutral-site games often develop their own strange rhythm, and this one has enough unusual elements to make an upset at least conceivable.
Oregon at Oklahoma State — Sept. 12
Oregon’s season opener against Boise State deserves plenty of attention. The Broncos are 3-1 all-time against the Ducks and remain the Group of Six favorite to reach the College Football Playoff for a second time, even if they walk out of Eugene with a loss. However, the more dangerous spot may actually come a week later.
If Oklahoma State avoids an opening-week stumble at Tulsa, Stillwater will be absolutely buzzing for Oregon’s arrival. The arrival of head coach Eric Morris from North Texas brings genuine optimism to an aggressively rebuilding program.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker headlines the offseason additions after leading the FBS in passing yards and big-time throws last season. Mestemaker arrived alongside a band of weapons, including running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Wyatt Young. This trio amassed overall PFF grades of 88.3, 92.7 and 89.0 en route to winning twelve games last season.
There will be no shortage of motivation here either. Oregon embarrassed the Cowboys 69-3 in last season’s meeting, a result that undoubtedly left a sour taste in the mouth of Oklahoma State fans. They won’t need any help creating an intense atmosphere for this one.
Texas vs. UTSA — Sept. 19
Texas has dominated this series in recent years, crushing UTSA 56-7 two seasons ago after beating the Roadrunners by 21 points in 2022. However, the Longhorns’ schedule makes this a more dangerous spot than usual.
One week earlier, Texas will have played Ohio State in one of the biggest nonconference games of the entire season. One week later, they travel to Knoxville for an SEC road showdown against what should be a 3-0 Tennessee team. It would therefore be understandable if some attention drifted away from a home tune-up game against UTSA.
That would be a major mistake, though, as the Roadrunners are currently preseason favorites to win the American Athletic Conference and thus remain a realistic outsider to earn an automatic Playoff berth.
Running back Will Henderson III is their biggest reason for optimism. As a redshirt freshman last season, he averaged 7.0 yards per carry, the highest mark among returning FBS running backs with at least 120 rushing attempts. If Henderson establishes the run early and shortens the game, Texas could find itself in an uncomfortable position in the one game they probably aren’t worried about.
Georgia at Arkansas — Sept. 19
Georgia has started every season 3-0 since 2014, and remarkably, they’ve only lost their third game of the season once since 1991. Ironically, that defeat came against Arkansas. They are remarkably hot starters, thanks to the culture Kirby Smart has instilled and his deep understanding of his loaded roster.
Georgia travels to Fayetteville knowing Oklahoma visits Athens the following weekend in one of the marquee games on its schedule. Kirby Smart won’t allow his teams to overlook an SEC opponent, yet even the sport’s premier coaches cannot eliminate the possibility of players looking ahead.
Arkansas also brings plenty of reasons for optimism here. Quarterback KJ Jackson assumes the starting job, taking over from Taylen Green. Although Jackson logged only 96 dropbacks last season, he flashed potential with five total touchdowns, no interceptions, a pair of big-time throws and six missed tackles forced as a runner. His dual-threat ability gives Arkansas the same multi-dimensional attack they had with Green, with arguably higher upside in the passing game.
LSU versus Louisiana Tech — Sept. 12
A constant theme of this list has been teams looking either ahead or behind at much more difficult early-season clashes. No team faces a more emotionally taxing stretch to open the season than LSU. The Tigers begin with a blockbuster showdown against Clemson, complete with ESPN’s College GameDay and all the attention that accompanies one of the biggest games of opening weekend. Then in Week 3, Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford for what could be the most emotionally charged clash of the entire regular season.
That leaves Louisiana Tech sitting squarely between two games that will dominate LSU’s attention. If an upset is going to happen, the Bulldogs have the defensive profile to give themselves a chance. They forced 25 turnovers last season, the seventh-most in the FBS, and defensive coordinator Luke Olson was one of the country’s most aggressive playcallers, deploying man coverage on 40% of defensive snaps, the 10th-highest rate nationally. The concern is generating pressure. Louisiana Tech ranked just 121st in pressure rate last season. That won’t fly against LSU’s level of aerial talent.
Playing at night in Death Valley doesn’t help the possibility of an upset here. Few environments in college football are louder or more intimidating, regardless of the quality of LSU’s opponent. Louisiana Tech has enough playmakers to make their big brother sweat for stretches, but pulling off the upset would likely go down as one of the bigger surprises in modern college football history.
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