The 9-3 New England Patriots travel to the Nation’s Capital to face their final NFC East opponent on the year, the 4-8 Washington Redskins. For these two teams, it’s the same old song: the Patriots are poised to secure a top seed in the AFC, while the Redskins have already lost any postseason dreams in another underwhelming and drama-filled season. Bill Belichick and company are coming off a 31-24 win at home over the dreadful Colts which was, at one point, 31-3 before they let up. The Redskins lost 34-19 at home to the New York Jets despite the score being tied at 13 at the end of the third quarter.
The last time these two met was in 2007 when New England went 18-1 and Washington made its most recent trip to the playoffs. The result was a 52-7 beat-down in Foxborough. Several of the Redskins remain from that team and will be determined to avoid a similar embarrassment. Anything can happen on any given Sunday and the Patriots have been far more vulnerable on the road where they’ve lost twice. It will still take great efforts from nearly every Redskin to pull off the upset, though.
Stopping Gronkowski and Hernandez
The Patriots have arguably the best tight end duo in the league with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The two have combined for 119 catches, 1451 yards, and 18 TD's. It’s not like opposing defenses are still primarily covering them with linebackers or safeties either, as six of those TDs have come against cornerbacks. Gronkowski is our top overall rated TE with a +21.3 grade, as well as our highest rated run-blocking TE (+7.1). His 13 TD grabs also leads the league among tight ends and receivers. The only aspect of his game that isn’t elite is his pass-blocking, but even that isn't too bad. Out of 60 pass-blocking attempts, he’s given up three QB disruptions, the worst being a sack to Shaun Phillips back in Week 2. He may be called upon to keep Tom Brady safe from solid pass rushers Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan (+26.9 combined pass-rushing grade), which will be a good test. Hernandez hasn’t scored as often as his teammate but he also leads the league in one area: forcing missed tackles. His 15 forced misses are tops among tight ends and receivers.
The Redskins' defense has struggled against tight ends, giving up five scores to them, the most recent example being Jason Witten’s 69-yard catch-and-run. Based on game tape so far this season, the Redskins will likely want to defend these two with Josh Wilson, O.J. Atogwe, or even the still-reliable London Fletcher, who has two picks and two passes defensed. The Patriots will just as likely try and force struggling slot CB Kevin Barnes (-5.2 coverage grade), DeAngelo Hall (-7.3) and safety Reed Doughty (-5.4) into coverage with their matchup nightmares.
Life Without Trent and Fred
For a unit usually struggling to score points (they've only scored 28 or more in the Mike Shanahan era three times), losing their top offensive lineman and starting tight end to off field issues is a major setback. Trent Williams struggled in his rookie season (-23.4) but has seen a vast improvement this year (+3.8) despite some injury setbacks. He could be replaced by Sean Locklear (-6.4), who has been a significant downgrade in his three starts in that spot earlier this year. He helped make the Buffalo Bills' non-existent pass rush seem unstoppable back in Week 8 in Toronto; being charged with a sack and five quarterback pressures.
Fred Davis finally overtook Chris Cooley for the No. 1 tight end spot for the team at midseason, but will now miss the final four games of the year. It would have been fun to watch Davis and New England’s duo in the same game, but instead we’ll have to make do with Logan Paulson. Paulson has caught seven of 10 passes thrown his way and forced a missed tackle, but it’s highly unlikely he will be able to produce as much as Davis.
Another major question now is how will the Redskins run-blocking be affected, as Davis has been terrible at helping his running backs (-9.0 run block grade), while Paulson is somewhat less so (-5.6), though he hasn't played as many snaps. The commentators gave Paulson some credit for driving Muhammad Wilkerson back on Roy Helu’s TD run last week. What they failed to mention was that Paulson was helped tremendously by Williams, who gave the defensive end a good shot before moving to the second level. At 13:28 in the third quarter they actually mistakenly blame Davis when in fact Paulson clearly whiffs on OLB Jamaal Westerman, who then tackles Helu for a loss 4 yards in the backfield. Paulson’s pass blocking will no doubt be a downgrade as he’s given up three QB disruptions in 18 pass-blocking attempts in 2011, including a sack and a pressure last week.
Return to Washington
In a season where many of New England’s veteran free agent signings have not panned out, Andre Carter has been a very solid investment. The defensive end is finally in a winning environment after so many losing seasons in Washington. He has thrived with the culture change and in addition to being best overall graded player on their defense (+16.9), he’s also our third-highest-ranked 4-3 run defender among defensive ends (+13.3). Need an example? Check out 13:56 in the first quarter of last week’s game as Carter goes through a tackle-guard double-team to limit Joseph Addai to a 3-yard gain. Despite leading the league among 4-3 ends with 13 QB hits, he’s coming off his worst pass rushing performance of the year (blanked) against mostly rookie left tackle Anthony Costanzo. Carter will be looking to rebound against a poor offensive line, which is bad news for Rex Grossman, who certainly doesn’t need a defender who already has 10 sacks to have extra motivation.
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