It’s a battle between the two best teams in the AFC that no one wants to talk about. The Cincinnati Bengals are riding a four game winning streak which includes a win over the Buffalo Bills. It will be hard for them not to look ahead, as their four opponents after this game are all within the division.
Despite an embarrassing loss against the Houston Texans two weeks ago, the Tennessee Titans have shown they are still in this playoff race, because they are still able to beat weaker teams. While Matt Hasselbeck vs. Andy Dalton doesn’t sound like an epic matchup, this game has some serious playoff implications.
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1) Bengals Pass Rush Neutralized
Early on in the season, we were seeing a solid eight man rotation that could consistently bring the quarterback to the ground. That level of play has dropped off some in the weeks since. Over the first three weeks, they have averaged eight sacks/hits per game, while over the last four games it is down to six sacks/hits per game. While players like Carlos Dunlap (+21.0 pass rush) and Geno Atkins (+9.6 pass rush) have continued to play well, the support just hasn’t been around them like earlier in the season.
In this game, it will be harder than ever for the Bengals to generate pressure as the Titans’ offensive line has clearly been the best in the league in terms of protecting their quarterback. As a unit, they have allowed just four sacks on the year while 16 individual offensive linemen on other teams have allowed five or more sacks at this point. Right tackle David Stewart (+9.9 pass blocking) is leading the group, ash he’s allowed just seven pressures in seven games and a positive pass block rating every game, which will lead to problems for Dunlap. This is a battle that Tennessee should win, which will make life difficult for the Cincinnati defense.
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2) Bengals Passing Attack
There is really only one receiver on the Bengals’ roster that should scare you, and that’s rookie A.J. Green (+1.8 receiving). Over the past five games, he’s had either four or five catches, and he’s had a touchdown in each of the past three games. However, teams know that Andy Dalton is feeding him the ball, so he’s only caught 58% of balls thrown his way as a result.
The Tennessee cornerbacks are ready to stop him, as their top three are Courtland Finnegan (+2.8 coverage), Jason McCourty (+2.0 coverage) and Alterraun Verner (+5.6 coverage). It’s hard to find any trio who is playing as well as these three men. Problems might arise as both Michael Griffin and Chris Hope are both injured which could lead to Anthony Smith who has just had 36 snaps this season in action at safety. This might not be as big of a problem as you might think, as Andy Dalton (+9.8) has an accuracy percentage of 43.5 when throwing deep passes, and has thrown four interceptions on deep throws which is the most for any current starter. Despite the injuries, the Titans should be able to shut down the Bengals passing attack.
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3) End of CJ2K?
As everyone knows, Chris Johnson (-3.6 run) hasn’t looked good this year after receiving his big contract. Over the past two games, he’s had 24 rushes for 52 yards or just over 2 yards per carry. He did this against the Colts which have a below average run defense, and the Texans who have an average run defense. While some people have wanted to see more of Javon Ringer (-2.4 run), he has looked just as bad. Johnson has averaged 1.8 yards per carry after contact, while Ringer is just below at 1.7. Only two other players have at least 35 carries and a lower average in this category. This week they go up against the Bengals, who last week allowed just 62 yards on 20 carries. Their entire eight man front has a positive run defense rating, and Brandon Johnson (+1.9 run defense) has actually been an upgrade to Rey Maualuga during his injury. If you’re expecting to see Johnson rebound; now is not the week that it will likely happen. It’s much more likely to happen next week against the Panthers who have one of the worst run defenses in the league.
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