In 2010, Tony Romo had 1611 passing yards. This was his lowest total in years, but it wasn’t because he had a bad season; it’s because he got injured. Something that gives us a better idea about what he actually accomplished is dividing his yardage total by his 213 attempts to get 7.6 yards per attempt. Similarly, you can better appreciate just how good Jamaal Charles was this year by taking his 1466 yards and dividing it by his 231 attempts to get 6.3 yards per carry.
Yes, yards per attempt has its flaws in that it assumes all yards are equal and that all attempts are equal, neither of which being true, but it gives a better idea than just yards itself. When it comes to receivers, it would seem logical to do the same and divide their yards by their catches, which is something that is typically done. Afterall, if a rate stat is one of the best for passers and rushers, you would guess it would be for receivers as well.
Unfortunately, when we calculate a receiver's yards per catch, we run into problems that we don’t for passing or rushing. To start you off with an example before reading further: Darrius Heyward-Bey had 14.1 yards per catch in 2010 while Roddy White had 12.1.
Different Jobs for Different Receivers
Some wide receivers succeed without great speed because they have great hands. Some are dangerous because they are fast, even though their hands may be unsure. And, of course, some excel in both areas.
As examples of the opposite ends of this spectrum, look at Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace and New England’s Wes Welker. Wallace’s job is to be a deep target; over half of the balls thrown his way were 10 yards downfield or beyond. Because of that, each time he caught one of these passes, he had at least 10 receiving yards and typically more, plus any yards after the catch. Welker, on the other hand, played mostly in the slot and was asked to catch short passes, as over 80% were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He would typically get a few yards per catch plus, naturally, any yards he could muster after the catch.
Welker is asked to catch a higher percentage of balls thrown his way, but Wallace clearly will make more yards per catch because he is thrown at further down the field. They are both top end receivers, but for different reasons. If you looked at them strictly by yards per catch, you would think Wallace is much better than Welker, when, in this case, it’s really an apples-and-oranges kind of thing.
To expand on this different jobs idea, only six running backs with 20 catches or more had a yards per catch average above 10. Only eight wide receivers with 20 catches or more had a yards per catch average below 10. The receiving jobs of running backs and receivers are very different, and that is reflected in their yards per catch. It would be crazy to compare a wide receiver’s receiving ability to that of a running back’s using yards per catch.
Yards per Target
When you look at the standard statistics for quarterbacks, you are more likely to see their yards per attempt listed than their yards per completion. That’s because if a quarterback throws a lot of deep passes, they will have a low completion percentage but high yards per completion. Yards per attempt removes this problem.
We can do this with wide receivers. We have the data for how often a wide receiver was thrown at (targeted), and I’ve even seen this statistic during games at times during the 2010 season. Looking at yards per target will help those receivers who catch short passes at high percentages, and hurt those that catch long passes at low percentages, evening the playing field some.
To go back to the earlier example of Roddy White and Darrius Heyward-Bey, White’s yards per target was 8.3, while Heyward-Bey’s was 6.1, which makes more sense. Because “targets” are now a more common statistic, yards per target should become more mainstream.
Better, but Not Perfect
While this statistic is more similar to yards per attempt for quarterbacks, one key distinction needs to be made. One thing that a quarterback's yards per attempt is dependent on is his receivers. If none are any good, they’ll likely make fewer catches and create fewer yards after the catch, which isn’t the quarterbacks fault. Usually though, a quarterback has some receivers that he can trust more than others, so he can control the situation to an extent by throwing to these receivers more often.
For a receiver, however, there's not often much variance in who is throwing them the ball in a given year and his yards per target are much more dependent on his quarterback’s ability. For example, Larry Fitzgerald went from catching 67% of balls thrown his way in 2009 to 54% in 2010, and I would guess that isn’t all on Fitzgerald.
Closing Thoughts
Adding to all that was discussed above, defenses will identify and account for standout receivers, funneling offenses toward lesser options. Teams will often take what is given and get the ball to their more open, but less talented receivers. As a result, the standard statistics for these receivers end up closer to those of the more dangerous threats.
Despite the number of statistics that exist for wide receivers, their play is surprisingly hard to measure. While yards per target isn’t perfect, it is a step in the right direction when coming from yards per catch. Like a lot of statistics I’ll be examining in the future, instead of just looking at what happens when a play goes right, it also takes into account the times they go wrong. In order to best measure a player, you need to look at the whole picture.
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