Following the kick-off opener at the Meadowlands, there was much talk regarding the performance of Cowboys wide receiver Kevin Ogletree. He played 33 of the 68 offensive snaps Dallas ran, mostly as the third guy in three- and four-receiver packages, and went out on 21 pass routes. Picking up 114 yards (and a couple of touchdowns) gave him a “Yards Per Route Run” (YPRR) figure of 5.43.
At ProFootballFocus.com we find that this is a great measure of just how productive a wide receiver is and it often throws up some interesting players. By the end of the year it’s an excellent indicator of players who have really performed well but early on it can bear fruit too.
For example, after Week 1 last year, the player with the best YPRR was the Packers' Jordy Nelson who only ran 19 routes but had a figure of 4.05. In pure yardage terms after Week 1 he was only placed 17th. As we now know that productivity resulted in more snaps and by the year’s end he had the seventh–most yards in the NFL with 1263.
So, on the basis of what we’ve seen so far this year, who were the players with the highest YPRR? In particular, who might you not have expected to see on the list that did well? Here are four guys who may just be worth watching:
No. 1 — Cecil Shorts (Jaguars)
With an eye-popping figure of 6.17 YpRR to go with his touchdown, Shorts was the unsung hero of the Jaguars' valiant, but ultimately unsuccessful game at Minnesota. He only played in four-receiver sets, but his success in comparison to third WR, Mike Thomas, who was targeted once and dropped the ball, may see him given additional playing time. His lackluster display last year, when he only picked up 30 yards despite going out in a pass pattern 122 times, may mark this as an outlier, but as his quarterback has improved, so may Shorts. You really shouldn’t take your eyes off what happens next week.
No. 4 — Stephen Hill (Jets)
After a preseason in which he dropped nearly as many balls as he caught, Hill had many fearing that he wasn’t the player the Jets thought he was when they grabbed him with the 43rd selection of the draft. This was disappointing because when I saw him at camp in Courtland he looked in another class to the other receivers there.
Playing less than half the offensive snaps against the Bills, he still managed a superb 4.24 YPRR and two TDs. He won’t have a fellow rookie (CB, Stephon Gilmore) to feast on every week and its unlikely Mark Sanchez will face so little pressure, but this is a great start.
No. 6 — Alshon Jeffery (Bears)
Another player to look good in camp was Jeffery. Unlike Hill, he also had a pretty good preseason and with Brandon Marshall at his best for some time, this is a guy who won’t have a safety over the top very often.
On Sunday he made life very hard for Hard Knocks “star” Vontae Davis, now an Indianapolis cornerback, as he piled up 3.81 YPRR and threw in a touchdown for good measure.
Jay Cutler will throw the ball often this year and loves big targets, so expect to see much more of the same from this 6-foot-3, 216-pound athlete as the season progresses.
No. 7 — Andrew Hawkins (Bengals)
One of the biggest issues coming into the year for the Bengals is who would be able to Complement A.J. Green at wide receiver. A combination of street free agents, waiver wire pick-ups, and mid-round rookies didn’t inspire at all.
In the end, Cincinnati started Armon Binns against the Ravens. He was given 35 passing plays but amassed only 28 yards.
Talking to a couple of agents this offseason they both told me, quite confidently, Hawkins would more than take up the slack. After watching him run 26 routes, predominantly in the slot (21 plays) and pick up 86 yards (90 after the catch) at a YPRR of 3.44, I have a feeling they might well be right. Last year, with more snaps, his creditable 1.99 YPRR would have seen him place 20th of all NFL receivers, added to which, he didn’t drop a single ball. I’m not a betting man but with the long odds you’ll get on Hawkins, he may well be worth a shot.
Other wide receivers in the YPRR Top 10:
2. Ogletree (5.43); 3. Andre Johnson, Texans (4.25); 5. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (4.07); 8. Brandon Marshall, Bears (3.40); 9. Percy Harvin, Vikings (3.36); 10. Julio Jones, Falcons (3.18)
Follow Neil on Twitter: @PFF_Neil