In the first two meetings between these two teams, there was one constant — the Packer defense getting the better of the Bears' offense. No Bear offensive player graded positively in both games vs. Green Bay.
In the Week 17 game, the Packers completely baffled Jay Cutler (-2.9) who only had 4.3 yards per attempt, and was sacked six times. But the Bears also showed some D of their own; Charles Tillman (+4.0) had a great game getting an interception and only allowing one completion. It was Julius Peppers (+6.1) getting loose in the Week 3 matchup,
Does Chicago's offense have tricks up its sleeve? Or will it take special teams and defense playing huge games to pull a rare home upset in the playoffs?
PFF ranks, by unit
Packers
Pass: 5th
Run: 10th
Pass block: 3rd
Run block: 20th
Run defense: 23rd
Pass rush: 17th
Coverage: 3rd
Special teams: 27th
Bears
Pass: 22nd
Run: 6th
Pass block: 32nd
Run block: 26th
Run defense: 8th
Pass rush: 21st
Coverage: 7th
Special teams: 20th
Who's hot, who's not
Hot: For the Bears, Matt Forte has been just excellent the last four games and for most of the second half. … TE Greg Olsen struggled early on in the new Mike Martz offense, but the twains have met and Olsen is starting to make a difference again. … Charles Tillman is coming off two brilliant games, while Tommie Harris had the best game of his season in the playoff win over Seattle. … For the Packers, center Scott Wells built on a great finish to the season with standout efforts vs. Atlanta and Philly; between he and the consistent Josh Sitton, that's a lot of great blocking. … Rodgers' hot streak appears to be a career-long affair. … John Kuhn and Quinn Johnson have given the Packers a dimension at fullback that no other team has over the past month. …
Not: Cutler has had back-to-back stinkers, and can't have another today. … Devin Hester hasn't been a factor on offense for most of the year, and was a liability vs. Seattle. … Johnny Knox also hasn't been good of late. … Don't know what's happened to Israel Idonije, but he's had four bad games in his last five despite an extremely consistent season to that point. … Punter Brad Maynard has had a rough year. … For the Packers, Daryn Colledge hasn't been nearly as good as his interior linemates, especially of late. … The bloom is off the rose for OLB Erik Walden, who is someone the Bears need to try to exploit. … Kicker Mason Crosby isn't looking like a guy the Packers can depend on, especially in the kickoff game. … Desmond Bishop isn't playing poorly, but he also isn't making the impact he was in the fall.
Key matchup: Strength vs. strength
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago MLB Brian Urlacher
Part of the Packers' success in the playoffs have been Rodgers taking advantage of the middle linebackers in coverage. He likely won’t be able to do that in this game as he goes up against one of the best middle linebackers in the game at coverage, Brian Urlacher. In both games this season, Rodgers has thrown at Urlacher three times each with moderate success. If Urlacher continues to play at his high level, it takes away part of the Packers passing attack in the middle of the field. However if Rodgers continues his play he had against the Falcons there is no stopping him. This matchup has an added element, in that Rodgers can run, and did run nine times over the last two games against the Bears. Urlacher could end up spying Rodgers, and making sure he can’t run out of the pocket.
Key matchup: Mismatch
Chicago RT J’Marcus Webb vs. Green Bay LOLB Clay Matthews
Webb has been hurting the Bears at right tackle all season, allowing more than three pressures a game. His ability to stop the run has improved as the season has gone on, but he allowed a sack and three pressures against the Packers in Week 17, and a sack and two pressures last week. Matthews has gotten three combined pressures in each of the last three games. Cutler has been better than most under pressure throughout his career, and this year is no different, but he's still only hitting 52.6% of his passes under duress rather than 63.6% with no pressure, and he has only five TDs in 152 throws facing heat. However, while Matthews is certainly a threat, he's also still working on his first-half rep as well; despite not facing an inordinate amount of double teams, he's had a net negative pass rush grade since Week 11. It'll be interesting to see if this turns into a mismatch or a stalemate.
Notes
Of the final four teams, the only area where they all grade well is pass coverage (Packers 3rd, Jets 4th, Steelers 5th, Bears 7th). … Rodgers has outplayed Cutler conclusively, but Cutler has the better passer rating under pressure (69.0 to 65.0) even if Rodgers has graded better. … The Bears' defense is very disciplined, with just 30 accepted penalties against them, but the offense has been whistled 72 times. … They don't come more reliable than Earl Bennett. The Bears' wideout has been called for no penalties and dropped no passes.
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