The second pass rusher to come under the Pro Football Focus microscope is Atlanta Falcons defensive end John Abraham. Khaled Elsayed breaks down where Abraham was getting his pressure from and who he was getting it against, with the findings making for some interesting reading after Abraham finished with a disappointing sack count for 2009. As always, there's more to it than numbers …
After a 2008 season in which he had 17 sacks, it was inevitable that John Abraham was in for some criticism after registering just 6 in 2009. The obvious conclusion that many came to was that Abraham was “past it” and on the downside of his career. Though he may not be the force he was during Mike Smith's first year as coach, it's a little wide of the mark to look solely at Abraham's sack numbers and make a judgment on his skills as a pass rusher. Indeed, a little look at our Pass Rushing Productivity ratings show that Abraham is still among the top seven in the league when it comes to generating pressure on a per-snap basis, even if where he got this pressure may inflate these numbers a tad.
On Abrahams' 421 pass rushes he generated a healthy 57 total pressures, which was tied for 10th most in the league. Now that's not in the same class as the 73 he managed in the '08 season, but it's still good enough to rank him above guys like Julius Peppers, Mario Williams and NFC South rival Will Smith (and what's more he did it on fewer pass-rushing attempts). So although it's disappointing he didn't leave '09 with double-digit sacks, he deserves credit for creating a high (if inconsistent) amount of pressure — especially in relation to fellow pass rushers — even if it doesn't compare favorably to the high standards and expectations he created for himself with such an explosive 2008.
That's the first interesting conclusion you draw from Abraham's '09 season, but the more surprising findings come when examining where he is generating his pressure. Generally considered a speed rusher who works on the outside, Abraham achieved a higher percentage (54.39) of his pressure making a move inside than any other defensive player who totalled at least 25 combined sacks, hits and pressures. While that is a surprisingly high number, his pressure off the edge is surprisingly low: just 15 total pressures. Of the 46 pass rushers who achieved more than 30 total pressures, only eight had less outside pressure and none had a lower percentage of his pressure come from outside. There are a number of explanations for the big variation in where Abraham is getting his pressure; further study is needed to see the impact of tight ends and backs, and if his reputation of wreaking havoc around the edge in '08 caused teams to encourage him inside. It's worth noting that Abraham didn't get the “free pressures” that many of his peers received. On average, a pass rusher gets 14.94 percent of his pressure unblocked, whereas Abraham was only gifted 8.77 percent of his pressure.
Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of Abraham's season was his production on third down. It's where you'd like to see your pass rushers making their biggest plays to get the opposition off the field, something that proved a big issue for the Falcons. Abraham, rather worryingly, only had 17 total pressures on third down. Putting that into perspective, he ranked 27th overall in terms of raw numbers, lower than Falcons teammate Kroy Biermann. What may be more worrying is that Abraham recorded a single sack on third down (three less than Biermann) and maybe this, combined with his disappointing outside pressure numbers, adds weight to the argument that Abraham may have lost a little explosiveness when coming off the edge.
Further concerns come when you see where his production as a pass rusher comes from over the season. An alarming 21.5 percent of his pressure came in the two games against Tampa Bay — a team whose tackles struggled to protect a rookie quarterback who had a penchant for holding on to the ball. Furthermore, the other big games of Abraham's season came against Jermon Bushrod of the Saints (who, contrary to popular belief, was actually a marked liability as a pass protector) and then when the Redskins (and their patchwork offensive line) visited the Georgia Dome. Those four big-pressure games accounted for about half (49.01 percent) of Abraham's total pressure, which speaks a great deal about his consistency (or lack thereof). The amount of relatively quiet games Abraham had against so-so pass protectors such as Flozell Adams, David Diehl and Jordan Gross raise plenty of questions as you would expect Abraham to do a lot more damage than the sackless, two-pressure games he produced against each.
Fig 1. Graph mapping John Abraham's pressure throughout the season.
In terms of numbers, things don't look too bad for Abraham. He finished in the top ten in total number of pressures and per-snap productivity, and to some degree you can say that the criticism aimed at him for his low sack count is unfair. But when you look at where his pressure is coming from — and perhaps more importantly where it isn't coming from (off the edge) — you start to open your eyes to the possibility that Abraham has lost something. When you break down who his pressure came against, it becomes all the more apparent that despite his slightly inflated snap count Abraham wasn't quite the player we saw in '08. He remains effective and productive, and his play against the run seems to get better as he gets older, but right now Abraham has fallen behind the top pass rushers in the league. Perhaps 2010 will see him return to past glories, or perhaps '09 was the start of a downhill trend. Only time will tell.
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