NFL Week 4 Best Bets — Early Sunday

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush (10) looks to pass in the third quarter of an NFL Week 2 game against the Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Dallas Cowboys won, 20-17. Nfl Cincinnati Bengals At Dallas Cowboys Sept 18 2518

· Bet Cowboys QB Cooper Rush u1.5 pass TDs vs. Washington: Backup-level QBs have thrown fewer than 1.5 TDs in 67% of their games since 2016.

· Bet Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence o22.5 completions: Teams passing 4% more than expected against Eagles this season; Jags 6.5-point dogs.

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Estimated reading time: 2 mins


PFF best bets in the early-Sunday window in Week 4:

Nathan Jahnke: Seattle Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf o5.5 receptions (+116) vs. Detroit Lions

· Metcalf has the eighth-best matchup of the week, according to our wide receiver/cornerback matchup chart.

· Detroit has used man-coverage more than any other team this season. Dating back to the beginning of the 2021 season, Metcalf has a 91.7 PFF grade against man coverage — compared to 73.1 against zone — and his 40.9% threat rate vs. man is easily the best in football.

· The Seahawks are underdogs, which should mean plenty of passing to Metcalf.

Martyn Carlisle: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker u12.5 receiving yards (-120 BetMGM) vs. Detroit Lions

· Walker is going to get healthy and his snap counts will go up, but that does not look to be the case for the immediate future. In the past two weeks, the rookie has seen unsustainable receiving volume from a very limited number of snaps — and it creates value on the under. He has played 10 total receiving snaps in two weeks, including five catches from six targets.

Tej Seth: Dallas Cowboys QB Cooper Rush u1.5 pass TDs (-160) vs. Washington Commanders

· Since 2016, quarterbacks that were considered backup level because of their play throw under 1.5 touchdown passes in 67% of their games. He's done some good things while leading the Cowboys to consecutive wins since replacing an injured Dak Prescott, but Cooper Rush fits the bill of a backup quarterback and is likely to toss fewer than two touchdowns.

Arjun Menon: Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence o22.5 completions (-114 FanDuel; playable up to 23.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

 

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