Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 11 Late-Sunday Staff Picks: Player props, spread bets and more

Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) rolls out in the end zone in the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Melvin Gordon u37.5 rush yards vs Raiders: Gordon has gone under his rushing-prop number in 8 straight games.

• Vegas' strength on defense is against the run (-0.098 EPA/rush allowed).

Bet Joe Mixon u66.5 rush yards at Steelers: Mixon has hit this number only three times; with T.J. Watt back in Week 10, Steelers held Saints to 15-29 rushing.

Last updated: Nov. 20, 2:00 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 min


Here are PFF staff best bets in the late-Sunday window in Week 11:

Arjun Menon: Denver Broncos RB Melvin Gordon — Under 37.5 rushing yards (-115) @ Las Vegas Raiders

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 35.5

Ugly Denver timeshare: All 3 running backs are getting a small share of the workload, according to this chart by Nathan Jahnke. In his first game with Denver, Chase Edmonds saw 12 snaps, 6 of which came on early downs. Gordon handled most of the late-down and 2-minute work, but he played less than 50% of early-down snaps.

Averaging -1.01 rushing yards over expected, Gordon has gone under his rushing prop number in 8 straight games: It's easy to see why he's on a very short leash by this coaching staff, as Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds are quality backs.

Raiders' strength is in their run defense (4.2 yards per attempt to running backs and a -0.098 EPA/rush allowed): They really struggle through the air (last in EPA/dropback and 31st in dropback success rate allowed) which is also where we can expect Denver to attack them this Sunday.

Martyn Carlisle: Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson anytime TD @ Cincinnati Bengals

Bet Gameplan: Playable to +200

• Diontae Johnson is yet to score a TD this season: But he has faced some difficult matchups throughout the year, and this is a downgrade as far as opposition coverage, facing Cam Taylor-Britt and Eli Apple of the Bengals.

• Despite lower target numbers this year relative to last year: With the emergence of star rookie George Pickens, Johnson is still the most targeted receiver in the red zone and actually the 12th-most-targeted NFL player over the past four weeks, trailing DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Travis Kelce and D.K. Metcalf. With Kenny Pickett finding his feet, this is a perfect match up for the Steelers' talented WR group.

Mike Renner: Bengals RB Joe Mixon — Under 66.5 rushing yards at Steelers

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 63.5

• In nine games this season, Mixon has gone over this prop only three times. While one of those happened to be the last time we saw the Bengals play against the Panthers in Week 9, when he went for 153 yards on the ground, we’ve seen enough of this Bengals offense to know their Jekyll and Hyde nature.

• The Steelers' defense looks like a much different animal, as well, following T.J. Watt‘s return. They allowed only 10 points to the Saints last week, holding them to only 29 yards on 15 carries. That’s a lot of arrows pointing toward the under.

Judah Fortgang: Dallas CowboysMinnesota Vikings live-bet gameplan:

• If they fall behind in Minnesota, bet Cowboys moneyline at plus money and sprinkle alt spread -2.5, -5.5.

PFF Greenline top play: Vikings RB Dalvin Cook — Over 17.5 rushes

Bet Gameplan: Playable to -125

8.3% Greenline edge; Cook has 18+ rushes only three times so far this season, but Dallas is suddenly susceptible stopping the run, surrendering 200+ yards the past two weeks.  Cook will be heavily involved in yet another Vikings' game that should come down to the fourth quarter.

 

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