PFF Grades and Data: Key insights for the Week 16 NFL games

Marcus Mariota will look to test the Eagles downfield: Mariota’s 10.6-yard average depth of target ranks first among all quarterbacks this season, while a league-high 53% of his pass attempts have been targeted past the sticks.

Trevor Lawrence has been on a heater over the past three weeks: Lawrence was especially effective off play action in Week 15 against the Jets, completing nine of his 12 attempts for 161 yards and two touchdowns, but that efficiency will be harder to replicate against a Broncos defense that has faced the sixth-lowest play-action rate (23%) and allowed a league-low 4.2 yards per play.

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NFL Week 16 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.

PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 16 contest.

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

Despite the absence of Jalen Carter over the past two games, Philadelphia’s pass rush has surged, generating a league-best 13 sacks since Week 14. The Eagles have also posted a 51% pressure rate over that span — the fourth-highest in the NFL — as the midseason addition of Jaelan Phillips continues to pay dividends.

Since joining the Eagles in Week 10, Phillips has recorded 30 total pressures, leading the team and tying him for the sixth-most among all defensive players. Over the full 2025 season, Phillips is producing career highs in both pass-rush win rate (19%) and pressure rate (18%).

On the other side, Marcus Mariota is set to finish the season as Washington’s starting quarterback, and the Commanders’ passing approach figures to remain aggressive. Mariota’s 10.6-yard average depth of target ranks first among all quarterbacks this season, while a league-high 53% of his pass attempts have been targeted past the sticks.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

When these division rivals met in Week 14, Josh Jacobs delivered his most physical performance of the season, posting season highs with nine missed tackles forced and 80 rushing yards after contact.

Since joining the Packers in 2024, Jacobs has consistently punished Chicago’s defense. Across three games against the Bears, he has recorded 165 rushing yards after contact on 44 carries, averaging 3.8 yards after contact per attempt.

In the first meeting, Caleb Williams faced pressure on 14 of his 35 dropbacks yet was sacked just once. Against Green Bay’s defense in Week 14, Williams recorded seven throwaways under pressure, the most by any quarterback against a single team this season.

That trend reflects the Packers’ ability to force difficult decisions. For the season, Green Bay has drawn 28 throwaways from opposing quarterbacks, tied for the second-most in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Bucky Irving was a major thorn in the Panthers’ defense in 2024, piling up 265 rushing yards across two meetings while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He consistently generated tough yardage, averaging 4.1 yards after contact per carry against Carolina.

That physicality has been a trend for Irving. Dating back to the start of 2024, Irving’s 3.4 yards after contact per attempt ranks fourth-highest among 41 running backs with at least 200 rushing attempts.

The Panthers’ run defense has taken a step forward in 2025 compared to last season. In 2024, Carolina allowed a league-high 71 explosive runs of 10 or more yards on designed runs, and their 12.8% explosive run rate ranked 31st in the NFL. This season, that number has dropped significantly. The Panthers have surrendered 34 explosive runs on designed rushing plays, with an explosive run rate of 9.9%, which ranks 19th in the league.

Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns

Play action has been a major driver of the Bills’ offensive success in 2025. Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL with a 30% play-action rate, a significant jump from 2024, when the Bills ranked 25th at 22% usage.

Josh Allen has been highly efficient off play action this season. He’s completed 72% of his passes — the sixth-highest rate among quarterbacks — while producing a 115.0 passer rating, which ranks eighth. Allen will look to continue that success this week against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns (13) in the league.

Harold Fannin Jr. has emerged as a central piece of the Browns’ passing offense this season. His 66 receptions lead all rookies, and his production has been fueled by his ability after the catch. Fannin’s 335 yards after the catch rank sixth among all tight ends in 2025.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys

The Chargers have defended with light boxes on 57% of snaps, the third-highest rate in the NFL, creating a potential opportunity for Dallas’ run game.

The Cowboys have been highly effective in those looks, averaging 6.7 yards per carry against boxes with six or fewer defenders, the third-highest mark in the league.

Defensively, Dallas rarely relies on disguise, rotating its safeties on just 22% of snaps, the 28th-lowest rate among all defenses. That tendency could play into Justin Herbert’s strengths.

Against no-disguise looks, Herbert has thrown 19 touchdown passes — tied for the sixth-most in the NFL — and has attempted 37 deep passes of 20-plus yards, the seventh-most among all quarterbacks.

New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints

Inside zone has been a staple of the Jets’ rushing attack this season, and for good reason. New York is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on inside-zone runs, the ninth-highest mark in the NFL.

That strength will be tested against a disciplined Saints run defense. New Orleans is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry on inside zone — the ninth-lowest rate in the league — and is one of only six teams this season that has not allowed a rushing touchdown on the concept.

A key highlight of Tyler Shough’s play since taking over as the starter has been his effectiveness between the numbers. Since Week 9, Shough has completed a league-best 86% of his passes in that area, and his 113.1 passer rating on those throws ranks third-highest in the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants

J.J. McCarthy ranks second among qualifying quarterbacks in 9.9 average depth of target (9.9), and his deep passing has been sharp over the last two games, completing six of nine attempts for 171 yards and a touchdown, with four big-time throws. While he hasn’t connected with Justin Jefferson downfield yet (0-for-3 in Weeks 14–15), other Vikings pass-catchers have capitalized, including Jordan Addison (three catches for 99 yards) and Jalen Nailor (two catches for 43 yards and a score).

McCarthy should have more opportunities to push the ball deep against a Giants defense that has allowed 28 deep completions this season, tied for the second-most in the NFL.

Theo Johnson has emerged as a key piece of the Giants’ passing attack, particularly on third down, where he leads all tight ends with 260 receiving yards and ranks tied for third with 12 conversions. Four of those conversions have come on contested catches, also tied for the most at the position, though he faces a tough test against a Minnesota defense that ranks fifth-best on third down, allowing just a 36% conversion rate.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans

If the Chiefs want to close the season strong with Gardner Minshew under center, pass protection has to improve. As the Raiders’ starter for much of 2024, Minshew ranked fifth-lowest among qualifying quarterbacks in PFF passing grade under pressure (36.7), and that weakness is being tested again. Kansas City has allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league over the past three weeks (46%) amid offensive line injuries, while the Titans defense has generated pressure at the second-highest rate in that span (48%).

Tony Pollard, meanwhile, stayed hot in Week 15, posting his third straight game with at least 6.0 yards per carry and 3.0 yards after contact. Over the past three weeks, he ranks second in rushing yards (325) and fourth in yards after contact (185). That sets up an intriguing matchup against a Chiefs defense that excels at limiting extra yardage, allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards after contact this season (894).

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins

Since Week 9, Cincinnati has seen a noticeable uptick in pass-rush production from its two primary edge defenders, Joseph Ossai and Myles Murphy.

From Week 1 to Week 8, Ossai posted an 8% pass-rush win rate and a 10% pressure rate. Since Week 9, those numbers have jumped to 15% and 16%, respectively.

Murphy has made an even bigger impact down the stretch. Since Week 9, he owns a 13% pass-rush win rate and a 14% pressure rate, while his 24 total pressures over that span lead the Bengals’ defense. Earlier in the season, Murphy recorded just a 10% win rate and a 7% pressure rate through the first eight weeks.

Quinn Ewers will make his NFL starting debut, and if Miami’s pass protection can keep the former Texas Longhorn clean, he has the profile to succeed. When kept clean last season, Ewers threw 27 touchdown passes — the fifth-most among all FBS quarterbacks — while completing 70% of his passes.

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals

With Drake London sidelined over the past four games, Kyle Pitts has stepped into a featured role in the Falcons’ passing game and delivered. With London on the field this season, Pitts has earned a target on 17% of his routes while averaging 1.25 yards per route run. Without him, those numbers jump to a 27% target rate and 2.52 yards per route run — production that would rank first and second among qualifying tight ends. He’s well-positioned to stay productive against a Cardinals defense that has allowed 893 receiving yards to tight ends, tied for the sixth-most in the NFL.

On the other side is Trey McBride, the league’s reception leader and a player putting together a historically clean season. In the PFF era, only DeAndre Hopkins (115) and Christian McCaffrey (108) in 2018 have recorded more receptions in a season without a drop than McBride’s 105, and his 18 contested catches rank fourth in the league. Atlanta will provide a challenge, though, as the Falcons have allowed the fifth-lowest catch rate to tight ends this season (70%).

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

Trevor Lawrence has been on a heater over the past three weeks, leading all quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (92.1) while producing nine big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. He was especially effective off play action in Week 15 against the Jets, completing nine of his 12 attempts for 161 yards and two touchdowns, but that efficiency will be harder to replicate against a Broncos defense that has faced the sixth-lowest play-action rate (23%) and allowed a league-low 4.2 yards per play.

Bo Nix, who leads all quarterbacks with 145 pass attempts outside the pocket, showcased his growth from inside the pocket in Week 15. Against Green Bay, he earned a career-high 90.2 PFF passing grade from the pocket, completing 19 of 25 passes for 233 yards and three touchdowns with four big-time throws. That sets up an interesting matchup against a Jaguars defense that has faced the second-most pocket pass attempts (446) this season while allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt on those throws (6.1).

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions

Steelers left tackle Dylan Cook, a 27-year-old former undrafted free agent, impressed in his first career start in Week 15. Cook earned an 89.9 PFF pass-blocking grade and allowed zero pressures on 30 pass-blocking snaps, winning all 21 of his pass-blocking reps against Bradley Chubb and Chop Robinson. He’ll face a much stiffer test next against Detroit’s edge duo of Aidan Hutchinson — the league leader in pressures — and Al-Quadin Muhammad, whose 130 combined pressures rank second among all edge tandems.

On the other side of the matchup, Jared Goff’s deep passing has taken a massive step forward since Detroit’s Week 8 bye. Before the break, Goff completed just four of 13 deep attempts (31%) with a 45.2 PFF passing grade, but since then, he’s hit 12-of-21 (57%) and more than doubled that grade to 95.4. He was nearly flawless in Week 15 against the Rams, completing four of five deep throws for 95 yards and two touchdowns, though he now faces a Steelers defense that has limited opponents to the league’s lowest deep-attempt rate (7%) thanks to its aggressive pass rush.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud posted his best passing performance of the season in Week 15 against Arizona, earning an 81.7 PFF passing grade while going a perfect 5-for-5 on throws 10-plus yards downfield for 105 yards and three touchdowns. Nico Collins was the primary beneficiary, accounting for three of those catches for 85 yards and two scores, and now ranks top-five in downfield receptions (32), yards (760) and touchdowns (six) this season. That sets up well against a Raiders defense allowing the eighth-highest completion rate on downfield throws (54%).

On the ground and underneath, the Raiders have been dangerous after the catch, ranking 10th in total yards after catch, led by Ashton Jeanty’s 400 YAC (sixth among running backs) and 20 missed tackles forced on receptions (tied for third). That strength runs into a stiff test against Houston’s defense, which has allowed the fourth-fewest total yards after catch in the NFL this season.

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens

TreVeyon Henderson ripped off two 50-plus-yard touchdown runs against the Bills in Week 15, giving him four such scores on the season — two more than any other player in the NFL. A massive 124 of his 148 rushing yards in that game came before contact, pushing his season average to 1.8 yards before contact per carry. Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Henderson and De’Von Achane are the only two who rank top-10 in both yards before contact and yards after contact per carry. While Baltimore allowed a league-high 248 rushing yards before contact from Weeks 1–5, they’ve tightened up since, surrendering the sixth-fewest yards before contact (220) since Week 6.

Baltimore also brings its own big-play rushing threat into the matchup. Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell combined for six explosive runs against the Bengals in Week 15, with Henry tied for sixth leaguewide at 26 explosive runs this season and Mitchell leading all running backs (minimum 25 carries) with an explosive run on 23% of his attempts. That explosiveness lines up well against a Patriots defense that has struggled in that area, allowing four explosive runs to the Bills in Week 15 and ranking 29th in explosive run rate allowed (15%) since Week 10.

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers posted a career-low 2.38-second average time to throw in his final full season in 2020, and the Colts leaned into that same formula in his Week 15 return, as the 44-year-old averaged 2.41 seconds per dropback. That quick-trigger approach paid dividends: on throws released in 2.5 seconds or less, Rivers completed 14 of 18 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown, compared to just four completions for 14 yards and an interception on throws that took longer. He should again have the opportunity to operate efficiently against a 49ers defense that ranks third-lowest in quick pressure rate (16%) and allows the second-longest average time to pressure (2.73 seconds).

Ricky Pearsall’s season has been uneven, but his Week 15 performance was a reminder of his upside. After leading the 49ers in receiving yards from Weeks 1–4 — including an NFL-best 234 yards against single coverage — Pearsall missed six games with a lower-body injury and managed just five catches for 20 yards from Weeks 11–13. Coming out of the bye, however, he re-emerged with six catches for 96 yards and five conversions against the Titans, including 76 yards and four conversions versus single coverage. That sets up well against a Colts defense that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards in single coverage this season (1,307).