Without question the most important IDP position, linebacker can also be quite challenging to project. If you're looking for a hard-fast rule to go by, a good middle linebacker on a bad team that plays a 4-3 defense is fantasy gold, because that team will likely be seeing a lot of runs-against in the second halves of games, thus spiking the number of tackle opportunities. But while the 4-3 MLBs have long been the best targets, much has changed in recent seasons, and the old rules are starting to get tossed by the wayside.
It was long believed that MLBs in a 4-3 defense were much more valuable than ILBs in a 3-4 defense, but the strong performances by Patrick Willis and Ray Lewis in 3-4 defenses over the past few seasons has completely debunked that notion. And while the weakside outside linebackers in 4-3 defenses are considered far better options than the strongside OLB, Brian Cushing's 2009 season has caused IDP owners to reevaluate that theory as well.
With all this in mind, here's a look at the top 20 linebackers for 2010, along with seven sleepers to consider…
1. Patrick Willis (San Francisco 49ers): It is quite conceivable that Willis' numbers will start to go down as the 49ers improve around him, but things are still looking good for another monster season in 2010. Willis' 34.2 PFF ranking was the best amongst all linebackers, and his biggest strength (his pursuit and tackling ability) makes him the crown jewel of any tackle-heavy IDP league. There is some cause for concern with regard to the status of nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin as the 49ers are still waiting for him to sign his franchise tender, but the 49ers defense should once again be mobilized to keep Willis clean to rack up huge tackle numbers.
2. Ray Lewis (Baltimore Ravens): At age 35, time would seem to be running out for Lewis, but the Ravens' lynchpin still managed to put together a scintillating 28.7 rating in 2009. The hard-hitting veteran should benefit greatly from the presence of three mountainous defensive tackles in front of him (Haloti Ngata, Kelly Gregg, and Terrence Cody), and there are no signs of a slowdown from the Ravens' tackling machine. There may not be more than 1-2 more elite-level fantasy seasons from Lewis, but he's a good bet to put up yet another strong campaign in 2010.
3. Rolando McClain (Oakland Raiders): A rookie ranked third overall? In normal circumstances, this would be pure heresy. But there are good reasons to believe that McClain will not only survive but thrive as the centerpiece of the Raiders' defense. McClain demonstrated for the national champion Alabama Crimson Tide that he has not only the ability but the intelligence to be a dominating force on the football field. By making him the eighth overall pick in the draft (and jettisoning Kirk Morrison to clear a spot for him), the Raiders have made it abundantly clear that it's already McClain's job to lose. On offense, Jason Campbell is an improvement, but the WR corps is beyond suspect and Darren McFadden's injury history makes the running game questionable as well. As a result, it's a good bet that the Raiders will be playing from behind in the second half more often than not, thus spiking the number of tackle opportunities McClain will get. The pressure will be enormous, but coming from his leadership position in Nick Saban's championship-winning defense has likely left McClain as well-prepared as he could possibly be.
4. Curtis Lofton (Atlanta Falcons): The third-best ILB/MLB against the run in 2009, Lofton has rapidly emerged as an incredibly valuable IDP asset. His tackling ability is quite strong, and though his coverage skills are lacking, Lofton is in no danger of losing playing time because of it. Perhaps the biggest question mark with regard to his fantasy value is the Falcons' offense. If they play well – and if running back Michael Turner rebounds from a rough 2009 campaign – it's likely that they'll have more second-half leads, which will cause opponents to pass more and reduce Lofton's tackle opportunities. But if the offense sputters, Lofton could emerge as the elite IDP LB in 2010.
5. DeMarcus Ware (Dallas Cowboys): An absolute force on the pass rush, Ware's tackling skills are highly underrated. He amassed 12 sacks despite battling through numerous nagging injuries, and the emergence of Anthony Spencer at LOLB should make it even harder for opposing blockers to focus their attention on Ware. The Dallas defense – much like the Steelers' – turns the outside linebackers into fantasy gold, and of the four starting OLBs on those teams (Ware, Spencer, LaMarr Woodley, and James Harrison), Ware is the most likely to enjoy an elite-level fantasy season in 2010. [Note: Bump down for tackle-heavy leagues.]
6. Jon Beason (Carolina Panthers): Beason's PFF ranking was only 20th best amongst middle/inside linebackers in 2009, but his 121 tackles led all linebackers, making him a bit more of a fantasy asset than an on-field asset. The leader of the Panthers' defense, Beason should again put together a strong fantasy season in 2010, but there's a significant cause for concern. This year, he'll be moving to the weakside linebacker position to make room for Dan Connor at middle linebacker, and while the WLB spot typically yields plenty of tackle opportunities, it's always a concern when a top-tier fantasy player undertakes a position shift.
7. LaMarr Woodley (Pittsburgh Steelers): Woodley put up a PFF-best (amongst 3-4 OLBs) 32.6 ranking, largely on the strength of his top-tier pass-rushing (25.6) and run-stopping (10.1) abilities. Perhaps most importantly of all, Woodley started off 2009 quite poorly, and didn't really start playing well until Week Six. From that point forward, he was one of the finest players in the entire NFL, and if he can play to that level from Week One in 2010, he'll put up fearsome fantasy numbers. [Note: Bump down for tackle-heavy leagues.]
8. David Harris (New York Jets): The Jets are without question one of the NFL's most interesting teams, and with the offseason additions to their pass-coverage (Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson) and pass-rush (Jason Taylor), it stands to reason that running against the Jets may seem more palatable than passing against them. If that's the case, look for Harris to be the prime beneficiary, which would also serve him well in his contract negotiations. Interestingly, Harris' PFF run ranking (-3.7) indicates that he might not necessarily thrive with the added work, but his secure status in the Jets' defense (at least for now) and the talent around him should lead to a very strong 2010 campaign.
9. Geno Hayes (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Hayes's play really took off in the second half of last season (Weeks 10-17), both from a PFF (11.8 rating) and fantasy (46 tackles, 3 sacks) perspective. The WLB in Tampa's young, aggressive defense, Hayes appears to be on the verge of emerging as one of the NFL's premier IDP linebackers. The fifth-best 4-3 OLB in 2009, Hayes was very strong on the pass rush and against the run. With the offense still expected to struggle a bit as Josh Freeman's development continues, it's a good bet that Hayes will see plenty of second-half tackle opportunities in 2010. And for those in big-play leagues, Hayes registered a sack in each of his last three games in 2009, boding well for his ability to wreak continued havoc in 2010.
10. James Laurinaitis (St. Louis Rams): The Rams might be on their way towards respectability, but they're not getting there in 2010. The quarterbacking situation is going to be ugly whether Sam Bradford takes over or not, star running back Stephen Jackson has been nursing a back injury since last season, and the receiving corps is, to put it mildly, severely lacking. And on the defensive side of the ball, the Rams' pass defense could be epically bad in 2010. All this adds up to a lot of second-half deficits and, consequently, a slew of tackle opportunities for starting middle linebacker Laurinaitis, who finds himself in the perfect IDP storm for elite-level production. Laurinaitis was no more than competent as a rookie from a PFF-perspective, but that's of absolutely no concern when considering his fantasy value.
11. James Harrison (Pittsburgh Steelers)
12. Paul Posluszny (Buffalo Bills)
13. Anthony Spencer (Dallas Cowboys)
14. Jonathan Vilma (New Orleans Saints)
15. DeMeco Ryans (Houston Texans)
16. Lawrence Timmons (Pittsburgh Steelers)
17. Brian Cushing (Houston Texans)
18. E.J. Henderson (Minnesota Vikings)
19. Clay Matthews (Green Bay Packers)
20. Kirk Morrison (Jacksonville Jaguars)
SLEEPERS TO CONSIDER
1. Brandon Siler (San Diego Chargers): Siler performed very well in limited duty in 2009, and is a good bet to surpass Kevin Burnett for the starting job alongside Stephen Cooper. If he wins the job, the former Florida Gators standout should amass solid fantasy numbers. And if the Chargers' offense sputters (a distinct possibility given the absences of Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil), San Diego could find itself playing from behind more often than usual in 2010, leading to more tackle opportunities for Siler.
2. Cameron Wake (Miami Dolphins): Wake posted a sensational 24.5 pass-rush rating in 2009, and all indications are that his improved play against the run (and knowledge of the playbook) will lead to many more opportunities in 2010. In only 160 snaps, Wake registered seven sacks. If he were to triple his play count to 480 (still far less than half the Dolphins' anticipated total defensive snaps), that would project to 21 sacks. More likely, Wake's sack/snap ratio will go down a bit and his snap count will rise to the 500-600 range, still putting him well into position to take down the opposing QB 12-14 times in 2010. [Note: Huge bump up for tackle-heavy leagues.]
3. Hunter Hillenmeyer (Chicago Bears): Last season, Hillenmeyer took over the starting MLB spot when Brian Urlacher went down with an injury. Given Urlacher's tendency towards fragility over the past few seasons, there's good reason to expect something similar to happen again in 2010 (Urlacher went down with a calf injury in the Bears' preseason game on Friday night). Watch Urlacher's status, because if he is to miss considerable amounts of time, Hillenmeyer will be an excellent buy-low, sell-high option to pursue.
4. David Hawthorne (Seattle Seahawks): Last season, Hawthorne put up elite-level IDP production after Lofa Tatupu went down with an injury. This year, Tatupu is back, and should man the middle. But Leroy Hill's suspension has given Hawthorne the opportunity to take the WLB job and run with it, and his play in 2009 is a strong indication that Hawthorne could put up very solid IDP numbers in 2010 from that spot. In particular, Hawthorne was very strong against the run (14.3 PFF rating), and his sure tackling should enable him to play a key role in Pete Carroll's revamped Seahawks defense.
5. Daryl Smith (Jacksonville Jaguars): Smith enjoyed an absolutely terrific season in 2009, putting up the best overall PFF ranking amongst 4-3 OLBs (ahead of Brian Cushing). He was strongest against the run, but also quite solid on the pass rush and in coverage. With the unspectacular Kirk Morrison now playing the MLB role, Smith should get plenty of opportunities to siphon even more tackles, turning him into a surprise IDP asset. Smith probably won't be a top-ten IDP performer, but his production should far exceed his ADP.
6. Dan Connor (Carolina Panthers): With Beason moving to WLB, Connor will take over in the center of the Panthers' defense. And if the passing game continues to falter as it has thus far in the preseason, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart won't find themselves enjoying too many wide-open holes to run through. Indeed, the Panthers' offense is likely to struggle in 2009, and if it does, tackle opportunities will surge not only for Beason, but also for the underrated Connor.
7. Jasper Brinkley (Minnesota Vikings): After starting MLB E.J. Henderson went down with a broken leg, Brinkley took over in the middle of the Vikings' defense. It certainly wasn't a Gehrig/Pipp situation – Henderson is expected to take over when healthy – but Brinkley certainly carried himself with aplomb, helping the Vikings to reach the NFC Championship Game and performing admirably throughout. His work in coverage certainly needs improvement, but Brinkley is a heavy hitter capable of putting up huge tackle numbers should Henderson's injury problems linger.
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