It's fair to say that the 2010 season was an unmitigated disaster for the Dallas Cowboys. But while much of the attention was paid to the situation at quarterback, where Tony Romo was replaced by the surprisingly effective Jon Kitna, the biggest issue in Dallas was the secondary. Neither the cornerbacks nor the safeties performed well at all – with the notable exception of slot corner Orlando Scandrick – and it's clear that some major changes are required. Most prognosticators expect a complete turnover at safety, with both 2010 starters Alan Ball (free safety) and Gerald Sensabaugh (strong safety) expected to be relieved of their roles. At cornerback, the situation is similarly murky, with at least one of 2010 underachievers Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins likely not to return. Here's a closer look at what to expect when free agency begins…
CORNERBACK
2010 Starter: Mike Jenkins (right corner)
In 2009, Jenkins appeared to turn a corner after a disappointing rookie season. He posted the 15th-best PFF rating (+9.7) amongst the 107 corners who played in at least 25% of their team's snaps. And perhaps most important in the ‘Boys' attacking 3-4 defense, his +7.1 coverage ranking was 11th best. But where a huge leap forward was expected, Jenkins instead regressed to an incredibly disappointing degree, finishing the year with a -10.8 rating that placed him 92nd overall (amongst the 100 corners who played in at least 25% of their team's snaps). It's hard to identify exactly why Jenkins regressed so badly, and all indications are that the Cowboys still have faith in him.
“I’ve seen him play at a very high level,” head coach Jason Garrett said of Jenkins back in February in an interview with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “He’s a talented guy. I think he wants to be good, and we as coaches are going to try to get him back where he plays with the right frame of mind and plays with the discipline necessary to allow his talents to come out.”
Of course, having the talent and delivering on its potential are two very different things, and there were far too many plays in 2010 where Jenkins gave his best impression of a turnstile. Perhaps his play will improve under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, whose system is somewhat different from Wade Phillips' (though both run attacking 3-4 systems). But there's good reason to wonder whether Jenkins can be a long-term answer, and at this point it seems highly doubtful that he'll be able to consistently and effectively shut down the opposition's top receiver a la Nnamdi Asomugha or Darrelle Revis.
The Verdict: Will be back, but on a short leash. One more bad season will almost certainly spell the end of his time in Dallas.
2010 Starter: Terence Newman (left corner)
Like Jenkins, Newman was a former first round, selected fifth overall in the 2003 NFL Draft. His play last season was only marginally better than that of Jenkins, as he posted an atrocious -8.4 rating (86th-best). He'll be turning 33 on September 4th, and with three years remaining on a six-year, $50.2 million contract signed in 2008, he's a good bet to be released when free agency begins. With only 28 interceptions in eight seasons, he hasn't shown himself to be much of a playmaker, an especially big problem given that he doesn't exactly hold “must avoid” status with opposing QB's. To put his playmaking contributions into context, Cowboys legend Everson Walls picked off 44 passes in his first eight seasons, this despite performing in an era that was decidedly more run-heavy.
If the Cowboys are looking for a good replacement for Newman, Nnamdi Asomugha (+10 coverage ranking, 4th-best overall) would be a great place to start. However, he's not going to come cheaply, especially if a bidding war breaks out for his services. Asomugha would certainly fit the mold of an ideal Jerry Jones target, evoking memories of the 1995 pursuit of Deion Sanders that led Jones to make him the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL.
The Verdict: Isn't likely to return to Dallas, unless defensive coordinator Rob Ryan thinks he'd be a great fit at free safety.
2010 Starter: Orlando Scandrick (nickel/slot corner)
The good news is that Scandrick was the only Cowboys' cornerback (minimum 25% of snaps) to finish with a positive PFF rating (+2.2). The bad news is that he accomplished that largely on the strength of his blitzing (+3.4) and run support (+2.1). His play in coverage (-3.6) wasn't quite as bad as Jenkins' and Newman's, but that's more a factor of opportunity than skill. Extrapolating a similar number of snaps, Scandrick was nearly as bad in coverage as Jenkins and not quite as bad as Newman, though it's certainly worth pointing out that he wasn't facing the same level of competition, either.
Scandrick is a solid option as a slot corner, and if he can improve his play in coverage, he's really not the problem here. Neither Newman nor Jenkins would be appreciably better in this role, and so the Cowboys' top priority should be to upgrade at Newman's spot and hope that Jenkins bounces back after an atrocious 2010 performance.
The Verdict: Is likely to return as the slot/nickel corner, but things could get ugly quickly if he's pressed into starting duty.
SAFETY
2010 Starter: Alan Ball (free safety)
Where some corners adapt well when moved to free safety (see: the Saints' Malcolm Jenkins), Ball fared quite poorly. His -9.7 rating placed him 78th amongst the 85 safeties who played in at least 25% of their team's snaps, and he showed virtually no ballhawking ability whatsoever (his two interceptions and one pass-defensed would represent a strong half for the Ravens' Ed Reed). As a result, Ball is moving back to corner, where he'll likely be battling Scandrick for playing time in the nickel and dime defenses.
So who to replace him? On the roster, the only possibilities are Newman and Akwasi Owusu-Ansah. The former would be attempting that which Newman failed to do (covert from corner), while the latter is an incredibly athletic but raw prospect. If the Cowboys are hoping to return to the playoffs – much less make noise there – it doesn't seem that either option would be particularly good, especially with training camp likely to be shortened as a result of the ongoing lockout.
Looking outside the organization, the name that keeps on coming up is the Oakland Raiders' Michael Huff. The second-best safety by PFF measures in 2010, Huff is a former University of Texas Longhorn, setting up what appears to be a perfect merging of talent and fan enthusiasm. However, the enthusiasm about Huff's on-field play in 2010 must be balanced somewhat by his inconsistent and indifferent play for much of the prior four seasons. If Huff was in fact playing for a contract, he set himself up perfectly, but this is a classic “buyer beware” scenario.
The San Diego Chargers' Eric Weddle (+12.6) would be a strong option to consider, though there's a good possibility he could return to San Diego. The Chicago Bears' Daniel Manning (+9.5) was also quite good in 2010, but it's worth noting that his strong performance was at least partly the result of the constant pressure Julius Peppers put on opposing QB's. Other possibilities include the Buccaneers' Tanard Jackson and the Jets' Brodney Pool, but the former's PED suspension history and the latter's injury history make them very high-risk plays.
The Verdict: Ball is gone for certain, and so the Cowboys will probably pursue Huff.
2010 Starter: Gerald Sensabaugh (strong safety)
Sensabaugh (+7.4, 10th-best overall) was definitely not the biggest problem in the Cowboys' secondary. In fact, he was the only consistently solid performer. But he's expected to test the free agent market, and it's a good bet that another team will value him more than the Cowboys do.
Of the strong safeties ranked ahead of him on the PFF charts, the most obvious target is the Eagles' Quintin Mikell, the top ranked safety on the board (+17.0). With Jaiquan Jarrett expected to take over the starting job, Mikell will be available, but he won't come cheaply. Another option would be the Baltimore Ravens' Dawan Landry, though it's unclear at this point whether Ozzie Newsome is ready to hand the reins to Tom Zbikowski. The Houston Texans' Bernard Pollard is often a valuable fantasy asset because of his high tackle totals, but there's a good reason why the Texans are expected to let him go (-6.1 rating, 70th out of 85 safeties who played at least 25% of their team's snaps), and it's why the Cowboys shouldn't be pursuing him as a solution. And the Packers' Atari Bigby, whose role diminished dramatically in 2010, wouldn't represent much of an upgrade and probably wouldn't come much cheaper than Sensabaugh.
The Verdict: Given that Mikell and Landry (and probably even Pollard) will command substantially higher salaries than Sensabaugh (while Bigby wouldn't represent an upgrade), this is clearly a situation where the Cowboys would be wise to retain the known quantity in Sensabaugh (assuming he wants to stay) and spend the big dollars elsewhere.
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