Fantasy: WR Breakouts: A Statistical Analysis using PFF Ratings

In my humble opinion, fantasy titles are won with 2 main keys:

1)  Not drafting early round busts

2) Drafting players who have breakout potential in the mid and late rounds

The focus of this articles will be to examine PFF Ratings and snap counts to see which Wide Receivers could be breakout candidates.  YAC per reception and Yards per reception will also be used to a lesser extent.  Also, lastly, keep in mind a player’s situation.  That player could have all the metrics in the world, but if he isn’t going to see playtime, if his QB changed, if he’s injured or an injury risk, these all factor into breakout potential.

The criteria I used for the lists of players was the following: between roughly 140 to 600 snaps the prior year and a PFF rating of 1.5 or better.  I included pretty much everyone who fell into this category for more detailed analysis.  In 2008, the following WRs fell into this category:

Of that list, the players who improved in some way on their 2008 seasons were: Jones, Austin, Floyd, Bess and Avant.  Players who didn’t improve or regressed were Lloyd, Branch, Hixon, and Camarillo.  Let’s look at each player who regressed in a bit more detail.

Brandon Lloyd – perennially injured, switched teams.  In fact, Brandon Lloyd has played a total of 21 games in the last 3 seasons combined.  Lloyd was a fairly easy player to take off your draft boards despite falling into this criteria.

Deion Branch – Again, another fairly brittle player.  He also had to deal with a subpar o-line, a brittle QB, and a new #1 WR in town in Houshmandzadeh.  Again, a fairly easy player to avoid.

Domenik Hixon – Several signs of this.  For one, New York drafted Nicks early.  Two, Steve Smith and Manningham were also breakout candidates in their own right, and both did so.  Three, it was known Hixon was going to concentrate more on the return game, and was never too high on the depth chart.

Greg Camarillo – Probably the toughest one of this group of 4 to predict “failure” in.  His overall stats were pretty similar to 2008, minus the 2 TDs.  However, he did play more snaps.  So why did he regress a bit?  For one, he had a new QB in town, and QB/WR rapport takes time to build.  Two, the Dolphins running game did well last season, even while Brown was out.  And lastly, a big clue was Camarillo’s Yds/rec and YAC/rec, which were 11.1 and 3.3 respectively in 2008.  Both of these numbers were well below average, and if a receiver is below average in one category, he’d better be good in the other (as in Malcom Floyd’s case: His YAC/rec was only 2.4, but his Yds/rec was above 17).

One thing to note for the biggest breakout of all, Miles Austin: he had incredibly solid peripherals in 2008.  His Yds/Rec and YAC/Rec were 21.4 and 7.5, which were AMAZING totals.  Combined with his PFF rating, it’s no surprise he broke out, although the extent of which was far beyond what anyone would have guessed.

With these sets of criteria and explanations in mind, who ends up on this list in 2009?  The following players do (name, snap count, PFF rating):

At first glance, we can eliminate 2 names right away.  Demetrius Williams is a monster injury risk, and always has been.  Kelley Washington is also on a new team and buried on the depth chart.  Neither player is draftable in any form of fantasy league.  However, the rest of the names are intriguing.  A closer look is necessary.

Laurent Robinson – Robinson is one of the riskier breakout propositions.  He is talented, he’s a solid target at 6’2”, but his biggest knock is his injury risk.  He also has the opportunity for targets, as he’s almost assured of a starting WR spot, albeit with a sorry o-line and rookie QB.  His peripherals, 12.8 and 3.3 for the aforementioned stats, are also fairly mediocre.  All in all, I’d say he has the chance to break out, but there are other names on this list I prefer.

Jordy Nelson – I wrote an article on Jones vs Nelson previously and where they fit in, so you can peruse that if you’d like.  The bottom line is that if Jordy Nelson wins a starting job, he’ll be a very nice sleeper.  However, I feel he’s best suited for the slot, and he’s still battling with James Jones for a starting spot.  His peripherals aren’t badat all – 14.5 and 4.3.

Devin Aromashodu – Ah, now things get interesting.  This guy was a popular pick in summer mock drafts, but is starting to slide a bit with the Johnny Knox hype (by the way, I’m a buyer on Knox.)  Aroma has the QB to get him the ball, but playtime is his biggest question, as it seems Hester and Knox are the “starting” wide receivers.  The Mike Martz effect is a definite plus, and Cutler definitely looked his way a lot late last year.  He’s a decent flier given the offense he’s in, but where he plays and where Hester plays will dictate a lot.

Jacoby Jones – First of all, his 16.2 Yds/rec and 5.5 YAC/rec are extremely good.  Second, with Owen Daniels’ injury propensity, Kevin Walter’s overall mediocrity and Matt Schaub’s skill, he has no reason not to break out.  Coaches love him, he has the skill, and as long as he can win the battle over Walter, he’s a prime breakout target.  One of my favorites on this list.

Percy Harvin – He could definitely improve on last year’s numbers, but two things scare me.  One, his lingering injuries last year, as well as his lingering injuries this offseason.  Two, Favre.  Favre has to play lights out again for Harvin to improve, and that’s not a given at all.  His dynasty outlook also sours when Favre retires and the Vikings don’t have a solid QB who can sling the ball around.  His YAC/rec of 6.2 is a definite plus, but there are some flags that lend me to believe there’s better value out there.

Hakeem Nicks – 16.8 Yds/rec and 9.0 YAC/rec is absolutely silly.  Especially that YAC.  With only 528 snaps last year, there’s no way this guy doesn’t break out this year barring injuries.  He has no real competition for his job, and even if the Giants run game gets going again, he’s still a nice target for a QB.  I’d be happy with him as my WR2 or 3.

Malcom Floyd – 13.8 PFF rating? You’re doing something right!  He’ll always have plus Yds/rec and a minus in YAC/rec, but given Vincent Jackson’s holdout and Rivers’ talent, he should have a really nice season as the #2 target in the passing game.  I do feel his upside is capped though – don’t expect him to be a bonafide WR1 for your squad, but that’s more so from a lack of truly elite skills standpoint than anything else.

Davone Bess – This hard worker is pretty much entrenched in the slot role, so he’s only a target in PPR leagues.  He had decent rapport with Henne last year, although the 2 big flags are Brandon Marshall coming to eat at targets and a healthy running game to eat at looks.  Regardless, he’s a very solid bench WR for your PPR squad, and though his TD upside is capped, he’s a great bye week fill if you’re looking for a 5 catch, 50 yard type game in your league.

Robert Meachem – The TD monster from last year is in an interesting situation.  On one hand, he was a first round choice, has the pedigree, and showed signs of it last year with a very nice season.  On the other hand, I feel like Brees’ willingness to spread the ball around caps Meachem’s upside barring a Colston injury.  Meachem has also been on the PUP this offseason and does have an injury history.  He’s also not a huge reception guy, and since I play exclusively PPR, I can’t say I’m targeting him in many drafts unless there’s really good value there.

All in all, I feel the criteria I listed is a very solid foundation for looking at potential breakout WRs.  If you mentioned a list with the names Laurent Robinson, Jordy Nelson, Devin Aromashodu, Jacoby Jones, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Malcom Floyd, Davone Bess and Robert Meachem, most hardcore fantasy football players would probably agree there’s good potential within those names.  With the nice statistics PFF gives combined with player-specific situational savvy, you’re set to have a nice 2010 fantasy season!