Much has been made of the fact that Super Bowl XLVI (or Super Bowl 46 to normal people) is a rematch of the 2007/08 game which saw the New York Giants upset the 18-0 New England Patriots. Equally so pundits have been clear to point out there has been plenty of roster turnover since that thrilling game in Arizona. It is easy to simply state that the Giants won the last Super Bowl meeting between the pairing, or the Patriots have a superior offense, or the Giants have a better defense, but the game will be won in the one-on-one match-ups on the field on Sunday night. One of the key duels on game-day will be battle between Victor Cruz, who had 1,583 yards and 9 TDs in the regular season, against stand-in defensive back Julian Edelman.
Unfortunately, the Week 9 clash between the Giants and Patriots will not give us any direct comparison data as Edelman’s stint as a DB did not begin until the following week. This is further compounded by an injury that side-lined Hakeem Nicks and restricted the Giants propensity to use 3+ receivers. In this meeting with New England the Giants only went to 3+ wide receivers on 44.7% of passing plays compared to 61.4% in the playoffs, a low figure that I do not expect to be repeated. The Giants have been happy to stretch the field all year and will not be fazed by the possibility of a shootout with a high-powered offense as seen by their games against the Saints (w12) and Packers (w13 and w18), where they resorted to their 3+ receiver formations on 57.76% of pass plays. When the Giants did go to those 3+ wideout formations in week 9, Belichick’s response was to field five defensive backs (nine plays in a 3-3-5 and 8 plays in a 4-2-5), meaning Edelman will be on the field when this happens a lot more this weekend.
New York Giants use of 3+ WR formations
[table id=269 /]
Injuries have forced the Patriots to turn to their scrappy back-up slot receiver as a defensive back periodically since this season, and for 68 snaps in the playoffs, a tactic familiar to New England fans who can remember Troy Brown’s versatility during the 2004 season. Edelman has spent 80.34% of his defensive snaps as a nickel back and has fulfilled that role exclusively in the post season. He’s likely to have those duties on Sunday and one Giants receiver, Mario Manningham, has already come out and highlighted the replacement player as a target in their gameplan.
Julian Edelman Defensive Snaps
[table id=270 /]
However, it will not be Manningham who will get the favorable match-up come game day, rather it will be Victor Cruz. Cruz has been a prolific receiver all year, out producing Hakeem Nicks in both yards and touchdowns during the regular season. Cruz has seen a large amount of his playing time coming from the slot and of his 618 routes run this season (including playoffs) he has lined up in the slot for 70.87% of plays (Nicks only 5.57%). This will make him Edelman’s responsibility in the Super Bowl, although the Patriots will almost certainly give him help over the top in the form of their safeties, Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo.
Victor Cruz Pass Route Snaps
[table id=271 /]
This will be one of the key match-ups in deciding who lifts the Lombardi Trophy and Edelman’s ability in coverage will be tested to the limit against a receiver who he can match for speed (according to their 4.51 40 yard dash times) but not in height (he is two inches shorter). Edelman has not been embarrassed in coverage and has graded +1.7 which included four 4th quarter targets when covering Anquan Boldin in the AFC title game. He has been targeted ten times all year, allowing seven completions, three of them being converted 3rd downs and a further three being 3rd down stops, giving up 87 total yards (44 YAC) but no touchdowns. I’d expect those numbers to significantly increase as Cruz has averaged 7.7 targets a game and 5.2 catches per game in 2011, and is coming off season highs in both statistics against the 49ers.
Both Chung (-4.6) and Ihedigbo (-10.1) are poor in coverage, which does not bode well for the Patriots ability to shutdown Cruz, especially as Chung has committed seven penalties (two offset) in just ten games. Between them they have allowed 5 TDs and 620 yards with only 1 interception, but have also contributed in helping cover high profile receivers out of the slot such as Miles Austin (four times in Week 6), Santanio Holmes and Antonio Brown in the past. Worryingly Ihedigbo, who played predominately as a free safety over the past two weeks, has missed twelve tackles this year and Cruz, who has forced sixteen whiffs on the season, will prove to be a handful for him if he can break free from Edelman.
Patrick Chung and James Ihedigbo Coverage Statistics
[table id=272 /]
Edelman makes for a sneaky fantasy play this week because of his situation in covering Cruz. He’ll see plenty of attention from Eli Manning, who locked onto Cruz for a spell two weeks ago when he threw in Cruz’s direction on 8/12 passes in one stretch. Chung will be asked to provide run support (on average 25.7 times per game, +2.7) more often than Ihedigbo (21.6, +0.7) who will be the more likely of the duo to give Edelman help. By that token give Ihedigbo a bump in value this week too.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.