2011 Player Projections, Rankings, Sleepers, and Busts can all be debated. Fantasy authors collect the data (opportunity, depth chart, recent statistics, age, injuries, etc.) and combine it with their opinion. What can’t be debated is history; it’s stone cold fact. Looking into the future without analyzing the past is a colossal mistake. This is true about war, peace, addiction, personal relationships, and dopey fantasy football. None of us own a DeLorean to travel back to November 12th, 1955 with a sports almanac. We can’t guarantee the future, but we can make educated guesses based on history.
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Let’s focus on the most recent football event (not including the lockout), the 2011 NFL Draft. In our first installment of the Rookie Production series, we take a look at rookie quarterback data since 2006. Every league has its own unique scoring flavor. No one system is the best, so we use the magical properties of Excel and average a league that favors touchdowns/turnovers with another league that favors yardage/ tackles. Five years of quarterback results is a great chunk of data to help you make better decisions for the upcoming season.
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Click the link below to view the Excel report:
>>> Rookie QB production <<<
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Percentages for a 16-team league, starting 1 QB
“Starters” were players ranked in the Top 16 at the end of the season.
“Backups” were players worthy of contributing to your fantasy team in a limited capacity.
“Rosterable” were players worthy of belonging on a fantasy roster.
“No Contribution” were players who could be found on waivers.
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Rookie Production, 2010: 15 Quarterbacks
0% chance of drafting a starter (0 players)
20% chance of drafting a backup (3 players)
80% chance of no contribution in rookie season (12 players)
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Rookie Production, 2006 – 2010: 56 Quarterbacks
4% chance of drafting a starter (2 players)
20% chance of drafting a backup (11 players)
77% chance of no contribution in rookie season (43 players)
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Quarterbacks drafted in the first round, 2006 – 2010: 12
17% chance of drafting a starter (2 players)
67% chance of drafting a backup (8 players)
17% chance of no contribution in rookie season (2 players)
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Quarterbacks drafted after the first round, 2006 – 2010: 44
0% chance of drafting a starter (0 players)
7% chance of drafting a backup (3 players)
93% chance of no contribution in rookie season (41 players)
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2006 Vince Young is still King of Rookie Quarterbacks over the past five years, and he’s currently unemployed. I hope you sold when his stock was high. The only two first round flops were JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, lowlighting a dreadful 2007 quarterback class. Kevin Kolb appears to be the only player from the ’07 class who could be useful, but he needs to find a new home. All reports indicate Kolb is heading to Arizona, which would make Larry Fitzgerald a happy man.
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Rookie Production, 2010, ProFootballFocus Premium Stats Highlights:
“The goal of our detailed grading process is to gauge how players execute their roles over the course of a game by looking at the performance of each individual on each play.” Click here for more on the grading process.
Sam Bradford STL: 16 GS, 640 drop backs (ranked #3), 9 “plus” games, 6 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, 20th rated QB by PFF.
Somebody in your league is going to draft Bradford as their fantasy starter, so if you’re looking to get him at a bargain, forget about it. Fantasy owners fall in love with hot shot quarterbacks. However, those owners looking to jump up to grab him might be doing you a favor. PFF’s Premium Stats rank St. Louis’ offensive passing game as 23rd overall, and receivers Clayton, Gilyard, Gibson, and Robinson all ranked in the bottom of the league in terms of PFF’s Premium Stats Pass ratings.
Colt McCoy CLE: 8 GS, 261 drop backs (ranked #32), 5 “plus” games, 2 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, 26th rated QB by PFF.
Don’t believe the rumors of Cleveland looking to acquire a QB. McCoy will be under center when the season starts. He’s in the middle of the quarterback pack, so, if at all, draft him as a fantasy backup.
Tim Tebow DEN: 3 GS, 99 drop backs (ranked #47), 2 “plus” games (weeks 15, 17), 1 “even” game (week 16), 27th rated QB by PFF.
The Denver quarterback job will be one of the biggest fantasy headaches all off/pre-season. Kyle Orton’s presence on the roster makes this situation impossible to predict. The forums will be split, 50% of the fantasy owners rejoicing on how they drafted the right Denver QB late in the draft, and the other 50% being burned by a wasted mid-level pick.
Jimmy Clausen CAR: 13 GP, 344 drop backs (ranked #30), 3 “plus” games, 8 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 47th rated QB by PFF.
Cam Newton insurance, nothing more… although it would make a great story if he won the starting job and performed admirably.
Joe Webb MIN: 5 GP, 121 drop backs (ranked #44), 1 “plus” game, 3 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, 49th rated QB by PFF.
The Vikings didn’t spend the 12th overall pick on Christian Ponder to have him learn behind Joe Webb. Look for Webb to be used only in special packages, meaning he should be undrafted in all fantasy leagues.
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Quarterbacks drafted in 2011: 12 (player, team, round drafted):
Cam Newton CAR (1), Blaine Gabbert JAC (1), Christian Ponder MIN (1), Jake Locker TEN (1), Andy Dalton CIN (2), Colin Kaepernick SFO (2), Ryan Mallett NEP (3), T.J. Yates HOU (5), Nathan Enderle CHI (5), Ricky Stanzi KCC (5), Tyrod Taylor BAL (6), Greg McElroy NYJ (7)
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Based on historical data, you should be safe investing in a first round rookie quarterback. However, chances are one of the four will not be a fantasy option in 2011. PFF’s Premium Stats rank the 2010 offensive pass blocking as Carolina (7), Minnesota (15), Tennessee (23), Jacksonville (25). All four teams have dynamic running backs which will certainly alleviate some pressure. As for the receivers, assume Steve Smith is gone so Carolina’s group is by far the worst of this bunch. Regardless of the praise heaped on the rookies by their coaches, a huge key to rookie success is opportunity. Heck, Bruce Gradkowski was able to put up a few decent games in 2006. Locker and Ponder are clearly the most likely first-rounders to win the job on opening kickoff.
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The odds lean towards just one 2011 quarterback drafted after the first round being Rosterable. Unfortunately for Mallett, his off the field issues banished him to a backup gig for a superstar. Yates, Enderle, Stanzi, Taylor, and McElroy are nothing more than organization depth, leaving Dalton or Kaepernick as the only guys worthy of fantasy consideration. PFF’s Premium Stats rated Cincinnati offensive blocking as 10 and San Francisco as 22. Both teams have major quarterback quandaries – San Fran rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh is debating giving Alex Smith one more chance (Fantasy owners, don’t make that mistake; Smith’s a great bye week replacement against lousy teams, but we all know how it’s going to end). Carson Palmer insists he’ll never play again for the Bengals, and I tend to believe him. Dalton and Kaepernick were drafted to be the long-term answer, and recent history shows second-plus round rookies don’t make fantasy starters. I anticipate they’ll have almost identical Average Draft Positions (ADP) in both Re-Draft and Keeper Leagues. Regarding 2011 production, I’d rather own Dalton. Harbaugh’s terminology is going to be a nightmare for Kaepernick to learn in a lockout-shortened pre-season.
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