In Part 1 of my look into red zone data for receivers, it showed a strong regression trend for players that saw a large share of their targets inside the 20-yard-line. This time, I look at the efficiency of those red zone targets – specifically, how how many of those opportunities were converted into touchdowns. While some receivers are more skilled in the close confines of red zone, there is some inherent randomness in terms of producing touchdowns.
The sample group from 2008-2010 include the following characteristics:
- 167 total receivers that caught 40+ passes in a season and the following (Y+1) year.
- The conversion rate of touchdowns ranged from 0% to 73%
- 99 of the receivers converted between 15-40% of their red zone targets, which saw very little regression strength
Time to focus on the outlier groups. First, the receivers with the lowest red zone conversion rates:
| YR | Player | RZ TD% | Y+1 | Change |
| 2008 | Zach J. Miller | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 2008 | Michael Jenkins | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2008 | Nate Washington | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| 2008 | Steve Smith | 7.1% | 21.7% | 14.6% |
| 2009 | Josh Morgan | 7.7% | 33.3% | 25.6% |
| 2010 | Jason Avant | 8.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% |
| 2009 | Santana Moss | 8.3% | 22.2% | 13.9% |
| 2010 | DeSean Jackson | 9.1% | 14.3% | 5.2% |
| 2010 | Jabar Gaffney | 9.1% | 27.8% | 18.7% |
| 2009 | Devin Hester | 11.1% | 75.0% | 63.9% |
| 2009 | Santonio Holmes | 11.1% | 23.1% | 12.0% |
| 2008 | Bernard Berrian | 11.1% | 18.8% | 7.6% |
| 2010 | Steve L. Smith | 12.5% | 18.2% | 5.7% |
| 2010 | Mike Wallace | 12.5% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| 2010 | Percy Harvin | 12.5% | 11.8% | -0.7% |
| 2009 | Mario Manningham | 12.5% | 11.1% | -1.4% |
| 2009 | Greg Jennings | 12.5% | 41.2% | 28.7% |
| 2008 | Davone Bess | 12.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% |
| 2008 | Braylon Edwards | 13.3% | 30.0% | 16.7% |
| 2009 | Mike Thomas | 14.3% | 23.1% | 8.8% |
| 2009 | Jeremy Maclin | 14.3% | 50.0% | 35.7% |
| 2008 | Dustin Keller | 14.3% | 20.0% | 5.7% |
Overall, this group saw an improvement in their red zone conversion rate 86% of the time the following season by an average of 18%. The group under 12% in their original season saw a bump 92% of the time by a whopping 21%. Michael Jenkins in 2008-2009 was the only receiver with 40+ receptions to not record a red zone touchdown in either season in this study.
Looking ahead, who are the players most likely to see an increase in their red zone efficiency in 2012? Here is the hot list in this metric to watch this season:
2012 Winners
| YR | Player | RZ TD% |
| 2011 | Mike Thomas | 0.0% |
| 2011 | Legedu Naanee | 7.7% |
| 2011 | Michael Crabtree | 8.3% |
| 2011 | Anquan Boldin | 8.3% |
| 2011 | Austin Collie | 9.1% |
| 2011 | Victor Cruz | 10.0% |
| 2011 | Antonio Brown | 10.0% |
| 2011 | Lavelle Hawkins | 10.0% |
| 2011 | Percy Harvin | 11.8% |
| 2011 | Nate Burleson | 11.8% |
| 2011 | Jason Avant | 12.5% |
| 2011 | Greg Little | 14.3% |
| 2011 | DeSean Jackson | 14.3% |
Some of these guys are unlikely to be relevant fantasy names in 2012 (see: Thomas, Naanee, Hawkins, Avant), but the remaining names are very intriguing. Victor Cruz is locked in to a starter role after his huge breakout in 2011. The Giants lost Jake Ballard (11 RZ targets, 4 TDs) and Mario Manningham (11 RZ targets, 3 TDs) from the 2011 lineup, leaving some opportunities up for grabs. Martellus Bennett will step into the tight end spot, but has yet to be a big red zone factor with just 2 scores on 16 targets inside the 20-yard-line in the past four seasons in Dallas. Hakeem Nicks has scored on nearly half of his red zone targets in the past two seasons (12 total red zone TDs), so Cruz will likely be the no.2 option at best for the Giants in 2012.
Michael Crabtree (3 career RZ TDs on 22 targets) has yet to show that he can win in the close confines on the NFL red zone, which gives me pause to expect a huge uptick in this metric. While an increase is likely, Vernon Davis (8 RZ TDs, 19 targets in 2010-2011), Randy Moss (yes, I said it), and the running game (76 red zone carries in 2010-11 for Frank Gore alone), will be more promising options on the 49ers offense.
Anquan Boldin is an older receiver in decline, which limits his ceiling for a bounce back. His red zone efficiency was above-average even in 2010, but his fall in 2011 was sharp. Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta were uber-efficient in this metric in 2011 and Torrey Smith (2 TDs on 11 RZ targets) was no slouch as a rookie. I could see Boldin's volume in the red zone falling from the 10-12 level of the past couple seasons with more efficiency evening out the drop in volume.
Austin Collie was one of the best red zone receivers in the NFL with Peyton Manning (9 TDs on 19 TGTs in 2009-10), with a steep drop in 2011. If Andrew Luck is a decent upgrade under center as a rookie, Collie has a chance to jump up in this metric. Collie is in line to get plenty of snaps in 2012 and, outside of Coby Fleener actually being Rob Gronkowski as a rookie, will see a significant increase in prime scoring chances in the red zone this coming season.
Antonio Brown's impressive breakout season in 2011 leaves many fantasy owners wondering if he touchdowns will rise. It is not because Brown didn't get any targets in the red zone. Brown's volume in the red zone (10 targets), was second on the team, only behind Mike Wallace's 12 last year. Brown is a young player with room to grow, so I wouldn't be surprised if he saw an average or greater increase in his red zone conversion rate in 2012. Emmanuel Sanders is the intriguing name to remember for the Steelers in the red zone. While he has yet to surpass 50 targets in the season, Sanders has 13 red zone targets (9 receptions, 3 TDs) in the past two seasons. There is enough statistical smoke there with Sanders for me to believe that he may be the no.1 target in the red zone for Steelers if he can stay healthy for any length of time.
The last name I will mention in this section is DeSean Jackson. His 14.3% conversion rate in 2011 is actually higher than his rate in 2008-2010 (13.8%), so he is the most likely regression breaker when I revisit this study next year. Jeremy Maclin converts over 40% of his red zone targets, so Jackson will be down the depth chart for the Eagles inside the 20-yard-line. This also explains some of Jackson's streaky production. When 16 of his 21 touchdowns in the past four seasons have been outside the red zone, there is some randomness involved to get in the end zone.
Now, it is time to look at the other side of the coin. Here are the receivers that have converted 40%+ of their red zone targets between 2008-2010:
| YR | Player | RZ TD% | Y+1 RZ TD% | Change |
| 2009 | Visanthe Shiancoe | 73.3% | 0.0% | -73.3% |
| 2009 | Todd Heap | 71.4% | 50.0% | -21.4% |
| 2009 | Vernon Davis | 63.6% | 36.4% | -27.3% |
| 2010 | Austin Collie | 62.5% | 9.1% | -53.4% |
| 2010 | Dez Bryant | 62.5% | 30.8% | -31.7% |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski | 60.0% | 46.2% | -13.8% |
| 2009 | Kenny Britt | 60.0% | 50.0% | -10.0% |
| 2010 | Jason Witten | 57.1% | 21.4% | -35.7% |
| 2010 | Calvin Johnson | 53.8% | 37.5% | -16.3% |
| 2010 | Aaron Hernandez | 50.0% | 26.1% | -23.9% |
| 2010 | Jeremy Maclin | 50.0% | 36.4% | -13.6% |
| 2010 | Jermaine Gresham | 50.0% | 35.7% | -14.3% |
| 2009 | Kellen Winslow | 50.0% | 25.0% | -25.0% |
| 2009 | Zach J. Miller | 50.0% | 27.3% | -22.7% |
| 2009 | Davone Bess | 50.0% | 42.9% | -7.1% |
| 2008 | Antwaan Randle El | 50.0% | 0.0% | -50.0% |
| 2010 | Antonio Gates | 46.7% | 42.9% | -3.8% |
| 2010 | Dwayne Bowe | 46.7% | 20.0% | -26.7% |
| 2010 | Hakeem Nicks | 46.7% | 38.5% | -8.2% |
| 2009 | Chad Ochocinco | 46.7% | 37.5% | -9.2% |
| 2009 | Antonio Gates | 46.2% | 46.7% | 0.5% |
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson | 46.2% | 15.8% | -30.4% |
| 2009 | Larry Fitzgerald | 45.5% | 22.7% | -22.7% |
| 2008 | Anquan Boldin | 45.5% | 40.0% | -5.5% |
| 2008 | Antonio Gates | 43.8% | 46.2% | 2.4% |
| 2010 | Davone Bess | 42.9% | 27.3% | -15.6% |
| 2009 | Johnny Knox | 42.9% | 11.1% | -31.7% |
| 2008 | Visanthe Shiancoe | 42.9% | 73.3% | 30.5% |
| 2010 | Nate Burleson | 41.7% | 11.8% | -29.9% |
| 2008 | John Carlson | 41.7% | 33.3% | -8.3% |
| 2010 | Greg Jennings | 41.2% | 30.8% | -10.4% |
| 2008 | Tony Gonzalez | 40.9% | 22.2% | -18.7% |
| 2009 | Heath Miller | 40.0% | 25.0% | -15.0% |
| 2009 | Roddy White | 40.0% | 31.6% | -8.4% |
| 2009 | Anquan Boldin | 40.0% | 36.4% | -3.6% |
| 2008 | Reggie Wayne | 40.0% | 26.3% | -13.7% |
The entire list sports a 92% regression rate, averaging a drop of 19% the following season. The really impressive group on this list are the receivers with a season of a 50%+ conversion rate. Every single case has resulted in a regression, by an average of 27%! The biggest example of this metric at work is of course, Visanthe Shiancoe in 2010. He was a regression-breaker in 2009, not only did he increase his red zone targets (7 to 15), but his already-high 43% conversion rate ballooned to 73%, the top mark in this study. Regression then fought back with a vengeance, falling all the way to zero scores on just three red zone targets in 2010. Other than Shiancoe, Antonio Gates is the lone outlier to this trend. He has been over 40% each of the last four seasons as one of the most dominant red zone threats in our generation.
Now, let's look ahead to the top producers from 2011 to see some candidates to see regression at work:
2012 Losers
| YR | Player | RZ TD% |
| 2011 | Robert Meachem | 100.0% |
| 2011 | Laurent Robinson | 80.0% |
| 2011 | Joshua Cribbs | 66.7% |
| 2011 | Dennis Pitta | 60.0% |
| 2011 | Vernon Davis | 50.0% |
| 2011 | Titus Young | 50.0% |
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson | 50.0% |
| 2011 | Jermichael Finley | 50.0% |
| 2011 | Lance Moore | 46.2% |
| 2011 | Rob Gronkowski | 46.2% |
| 2011 | Damian Williams | 44.4% |
| 2011 | Antonio Gates | 42.9% |
| 2011 | Ed Dickson | 41.7% |
| 2011 | Andre Roberts | 40.0% |
Robert Meachem had just two red zone targets in New Orleans in 2011. While that is likely to rise by looking at part one of this red zone study, he is the new Visanthe Shiancoe – there is no where to go but down in this metric. Laurent Robinson is another name a mortal lock to regress. After converting just 25% of his red zone chances prior to 2011 (3 TDs, 12 targets), Robinson had a magical run with Dallas (8 TDs, 10 targets) last season. Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville offense, along with the history of this metric, will not be kind to Robinson's conversion rate in 2012.
Vernon Davis' total conversion rate is actually 50% over the past four seasons, so he would be a candidate to sustain his production à la Antonio Gates more than most of the other names on this list. Titus Young is more of a deep threat, so his 50% rate (8 targets) screams regression going forward in my opinion. Lance Moore converted just 12 of his 51 red zone targets between 2008-2010 (24%), so his 2011 season was the aberration. While red zone trips are routine for the Saints offense, Moore's efficiency is primed to take a hit.
Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates are two dominant receivers in the red zone. They are also candidates to break this trend based on their track record. Gronkowski's 46% fell from his ridiculous 60% as a rookie. As I mentioned above, Gates has been one of the best in the game for several years near the goal line.
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