The St. Louis Rams have signed Mike Sims-Walker to join their growing cavalcade of enigmatic WRs. It has been assumed that Mark Clayton would be re-signed after he received so many targets in the early going last year. That signing would still appear imminent, but it’s no longer a lock. The WR picture in St. Louis is a fantasy quagmire, but, with Sam Bradford throwing and Josh McDaniels calling plays, it’s an important quagmire nonetheless. What kind of clarity, if any, can the PFF advanced stats bring to the picture?
Let’s get the rookies out of the way early. Last season McDaniels passed on Dez Bryant and made Demaryius Thomas the focal point of his offensive rebuilding project in Denver. Thomas had injury and route-running concerns but was a huge talent who was astonishingly efficient on a per play basis. Despite his talent and draft status, he failed to play in more than 35% of the snaps in a game all season. Pettis and Salas are interesting fliers in Draft Champion leagues since they’ll almost certainly make the roster, but they’re definitely not in the fantasy picture when the season starts.
The rest of the wideouts all have a Jekyll-and-Hyde profile in the PFF WR rankings. Clayton has graded positively in 16 of his last 40 games (40%), Donnie Avery 13 out of 30 (43%), Danny Amendola 10 of 29 (34%), and Sims-Walker 19 out of 38 (50%).
Although Clayton made a splash in fantasy circles after being picked up by St. Louis, he only graded positively once in five games with the Rams. Clayton dropped 5 passes on only 38 targets, a rate that would even embarrass Roy Williams. The Rams might be cautious about re-upping with a diminutive, one-dimensional WR coming off of a devastating injury.
Even before the Sims-Walker signing, there were rumors that Donnie Avery might be released, but it’s hard to believe they’d cut the first receiver taken in the 2008 draft if he’s regained his blazing speed. It’s easily lost amidst the dysfunction of 2009 and injuries of 2010, but Avery put up a very solid rookie year that included a +3.2 pass rating.
Still, the best bets in 2011 are probably Sims-Walker and Amendola. Both finished with positive PFF grades last year, and both seem to have defined roles. Amendola fits the profile of a possession receiver breakout candidate, a theory bolstered by his similarity to Welker. And while it’s a stretch to see Sims-Walker as this year’s Brandon Lloyd, it’s less of a stretch than it would have been last year to believe we’d ever be invoking Lloyd’s name in such a positive manner. Before last season, Lloyd’s attitude was considered larger than his talent. Despite flashing incredible potential in Jacksonville, Sims-Walker’s act left him on the street with very little market for his services.
Fantasy spin:
The Rams receiving picture should firm up a little when/if they re-sign Mark Clayton, but until then, Sims-Walker has to be the de facto #1. Expect him to either be a camp cut or emerge as the target hog in St. Louis. With MSW’s mental makeup and the need to keep two roster spots for role-playing rookies, expect Sims-Walker to be a polarizing figure in Rams camp . . . and on fantasy draft day.
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