Fantasy: Reaction - Peyton Manning picks the Broncos

Peyton Manning has decided on a new home.

According to Chris Mortenson, the long-time Indianapolis Colts quarterback will sign with the Denver Broncos.

This move will have a ton of impact across the league, from the future of Tim Tebow to Alex Smith’s potential return to San Francisco to the possibility that both Dallas Clark and Jeff Saturday could follow Manning to Denver.

Today, however, I’ll be focusing solely on the impact to the Denver Broncos offensive attack.

For starters, let’s take a look at Manning’s pass distributions during the 2008-10 seasons with the Colts, as compared to Tim Tebow in 2011 and the league average.

We see that neither Manning nor Tebow rely much on the running back. In fact, Tebow actually threw to the back even less in the late stages of 2011. Manning threw only one in 10 passes to a back in 2010, but – in fairness – he hasn’t had much to work with in terms of a receiving threat over the last couple of years. Regardless, you should expect only a slight increase in targets for Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno here. A healthy projection is a total of about five per game.

Moving to wide receivers, we see that Tebow made much better use of the X/Z receivers (wide) than Manning has. Tebow targeted Demaryius Thomas (plays out wide pretty much exclusively) on close to 40% of his throws down the stretch in 2011, which partially explains such a high number to the position. On the other hand, Tebow relied on the slot man a lot less than Manning will. Eric Decker had a pretty solid 2011 campaign, but a good chunk came with Kyle Orton under center and the rest was a few huge plays on a low number of targets from Tebow. He is a big benefactor of the Manning signing, as he will be in the slot at all times in 3-WR sets.

Tight End is the position here that benefits most. Last year, Tebow targeted the tight end on just 7% of his throws. Manning was above average each of his last three full seasons, and also made plenty of use out of Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme in the slot. Clark lined up in the slot right at 20% of the time each of the last three seasons. Julius Thomas currently sits atop the Denver depth chart at tight end. Virgil Green would’ve given Thomas a run for snaps, but he’s suspended for the first four games of 2012. Broncos beat writer Mike Klis has already said he expects Denver to sign Dallas Clark, however, so he is likely the guy who will get most of the snaps…and thus near 7-8 targets/game.

Next, we’ll check out the impact on Denver’s running backs.

In some ways, the Denver running backs will benefit from the Manning signing, but overall, they lose in the deal. The good news is that a more effective offense will lead to additional scoring opportunities for the entire offense. On the other hand, the big loss is going to be a product of a change from a run-heavy approach to a pass-first offensive attack. Following their Week 6 bye week and full-time installation of Tim Tebow into the offense, the Broncos called a pass on just 46% of their offensive snaps – easily the lowest mark in the NFL. Calling a run play 54% of the time opened up about 35 rush attempts per game, most of which go to the tailback. This allowed Willis McGahee to rack up 20+ carries six times and 15+ carries 13 times last season. The 2008, 2009, and 2010 Colts each called a run between 36%-37% of the time, which easily qualified them as one of the game’s pass-heaviest teams. A drop from 54% to 37% in run rate is a loss of about 12 rush attempts per game. This means more like 14 runs/week for McGahee and seven or so for Moreno.

Finally, we have a look at the differences in offensive packages used by the two entities.

We see some pretty significant differences here between a Peyton Manning and Tim Tebow offense. The biggest adjustment comes at the wide receiver position. We see that the 2011 Broncos went with three wide receivers on just 48% of their offensive snaps. From 2008-10, Manning had three wideouts at his disposal between 60% and 75% of the time. The Colts used more 2-TE sets in 2008 and 2009 than they did in 2010, which explains the drastic shift from 60% to 75% in the wide receiver department. We also see a massive difference in the fullback department. Often, the Colts don’t even roster a fullback. In fact, during the 2008-10 seasons, a Colts fullback played a grand total of 10 snaps! In 2011 alone, Broncos fullbacks racked up 223 snaps, which worked out to 19% of their offensive plays. Free Agent Spencer Larsen played 204 snaps for Denver at fullback 2011 and this signing certainly decreases the likelihood that he’s brought back.

Fantasy Impact

I already covered all the little details, but the question of where each of these players belongs in updated player rankings is still unanswered.

Peyton Manning should be considered a middle-of-the-pack QB1. There is some injury and age risk here that keeps him from the elite status he had back in 2010, but he’s still one of the premier talents in the league and will be leading what will be a pass-heavy offense.

Willis McGahee can be viewed as a borderline RB2, but is better suited as a Flex. He should see near 15 touches a game. Knowshon Moreno, meanwhile could occasionally catch a few passes to go with his half-dozen carries, but he isn’t a guy you want to start.

Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are now must-owns. Thomas is the better athlete and has significantly more upside, but Manning made excellent use of his former slot man, Austin Collie, so Decker has tons of value, as well. Each player should see near 20% of Manning’s targets. Consider Thomas a strong WR2 and Decker a back-end WR2. Restricted FA Matt Willis is currently the team’s number three wideout, but even if he’s signed, he’s not a real threat for significant playing time. Look for the Broncos to target an outside receiver (Mike Wallace, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, Draft Pick are candidates). Whoever the new wide receiver is will be in a good situation and should be in the mix as a WR4 in Fantasy.

At tight end, Julius Thomas is the man to own…for now. Considering the opportunity (18-21% of the targets) and upside, Thomas is a TE1 at this point. That will all change if the team signs Dallas Clark. Clark is aging and consistently injured, though, so Thomas is a good stash in deep leagues and still a must-own in dynasty.

Overall, the Broncos are set to explode offensively this season. They will have six must-own offensive players by Week 1, many of which will be – at least- borderline Top 12 options at their respective position. Draft them and you will be rewarded…

Oh, as long as Manning stays healthy, of course.

Follow Mike Clay on Twitter at @PFF_MikeClay