Fantasy: Preseason Week 2 Mailbag

Throughout the 2011 season, Tyler Loechner and Alex Miglio will select Twitter questions and answer them right here at PFF Fantasy. Although you're bound to have your questions answered almost immediately from the staff on Twitter, we will choose a handful of good questions each week and give them more in-depth answers. With the first week of preseason done and the second week underway, we bring you our first round of answers!

If you have pick 7-10 in a 12 team non-PRR, non-keeper; what direction do you go? Best avail RB, top WR, QB? 6 pts per passing TD. – @Dorman06

Loechner – If Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, or Ray Rice are available – draft them. With the 7th pick, this is a possibility. With the 9th or 10th pick, this won't happen. Assuming these five running backs are gone, go with an elite WR instead of QB in the first round. Why a wideout instead of a quarterback? The drop-off after the first six wide receivers is more severe than the drop-off after the first six quarterbacks. Take a look at this chart, which shows the top 12 scorers for each of the big three positions in 2010:

This chart includes the 12 best WRs, QBs, and RBs from 2010. The “% from leader” category shows that receivers actually have the least fluctuation between the top scorer and the 12th best, with a 25.62% difference. There is a 27.67% difference for quarterbacks and a whopping 40.58% difference for running backs.

This is where the “% from previous” category becomes extremely important. After the top 4 wide receivers, there was a 5.7% drop. There was another 9.34% drop after the top 6. Quarterback's don't get their first big drop until the top 6 are gone, and then there is another drop after nine. Running backs (ignoring Arian Foster's dominance in 2010) don't see a % drop larger than four until you get to the 12th running back.

So what does all of this mean? With a pick in the 7-10 range, grabbing a top four wide receiver gives you a bigger advantage than getting the 7th, 8th, 9th, or 10th best running back. A running back will be available in the second round, as will a quarterback later in the draft.

Will the WR3 behind H. Ward have any fantasy value this year? – @fantasyshrk

Loechner – The name you are looking for is Emmanuel Sanders, a player many have pegged as a “sleeper.” According to Mike Clay's Wide Receiver “Tamme” Index, Sanders ranks as one of the best handcuff options among receivers. Starting in Week 10 (through the Super Bowl, where he was injured), Sanders received a healthy amount of playing time.

From Week 10, Sanders played 60% of the offensive snaps. Only 50 receivers saw 60% of their team's snaps on the whole season (less than two a team). His 13.4 YPC average was nothing impressive and with only 48 targets in 490 snaps, he wasn't used enough last season to be worth a roster spot.

Sanders' average draft position is the 11th round, too early for my liking. Even if Ward was injured, Sanders is a different type of player and wouldn't be guaranteed to receive all of Ward's snaps. Over 23% of Sanders' targets were deep (throws 20+ yards downfield). Wallace had a 31% deep target rate and Ward's was 14%. Sanders has the potential to breakout, but his current draft position and preseason injury troubles make it a risk. Ward, Chad Ochocinco, Deion Branch, Plaxico Burress, Malcom Floyd, and (yes) Roy Williams are all being drafted in the same area or after Sanders. I would recommend any of those players before Sanders for 2011. He's worth a pickup because of his potential, but don't reach if you don't have to. If Sanders isn't ready to go at the start of the season, Antonio Brown and Jerricho Cotchery would share the duties. However, neither Brown nor Cotchery would have much fantasy value if Sanders missed time.

Does Sanders have fantasy value this year? Yes, and he is certainly a breakout candidate. Is it enough to trust him as a fantasy WR3? No, not unless Ward or Wallace go down with injury.

What's the earliest you take Darren McFadden? Great strength of schedule. – @BengalNut

Loechner – When deciding on a player to draft, strength of schedule needs to be one of the least important factors. When you take a look at Oakland's schedule, though, you don't see many pushovers when it comes to run defense. The Raiders only face one defense (the Bills) that finished 2010 with a negative PFF run defense rating.

McFadden was the sixth best RB in fantasy last season, scoring double-digit points in 9 of his 13 games. His 5.2 YPC average was sixth best in the league and his 3.5 YCo/avg (yards after contact) were second best among running backs. McFadden was our 12th rated RB in 2010 with a 8.6 rating, and his 669 snaps were most among all Raiders running backs (Michael Bush had 437). McFadden will see the bulk of Oakland's carries, but Bush will vulture enough to lower his value a bit. Regardless, McFadden proved his worth last season and is a low-end RB1 for 2011.

There are six running backs (see first question) that should always be taken before him. In addition, it would be wise to take Andre and Calvin Johnson before McFadden as well. If my complicated math is correct, there are eight players that should be drafted ahead of McFadden under any circumstance. Therefore, the earliest I advise drafting McFadden is 9th overall, especially if you think he'll be gone when you draft six picks later.

Dezmon Briscoe vs Arrelious Benn. Discuss. – @thebottlenose

Loechner – Short answer: Arrelious Benn.

Long answer: Arrelious Benn, because he is Tampa Bay's No. 2 wide receiver and Briscoe is their fourth. Briscoe, Benn, and Mike Williams are all entering their second season. Benn only had 360 snaps last season, but was our 10th rated wide receiver with a PFF rating of 7.6. Sammie Stroughter is currently ahead of Briscoe on the roster as well. Despite Stroughter's poor PFF grade (-1.8), he still received 408 snaps last season.

Briscoe played just 55 snaps for the Buccaneers last season, with all of them coming in the final two weeks. He caught six passes (on six targets) for 93 yards and a score. Although it's a very small sample size, it's worth noting that Briscoe had .39 fantasy points per snap in those final two weeks. He is a deep, deep sleeper, but the answer to this question, as mentioned, is Arrelious Benn. As the No. 2, he should see at least twice as many targets as Briscoe. Briscoe should not be on your roster after the draft, but is worth watching on the waiver wire on as the season progresses. This obviously changes if Benn is unable to get back to 100% in time for the season opener.

Blount being over or under rated in PPR scoring? Don't care if he's spent hours on the jugs machine, he still not catching many. – @SwarmingBichons

Miglio – He is currently being drafted 34th overall (RB18) at Go Ahead Score and 30th overall (RB16) on Fantasy Football Calculator. You could do worse at RB2 – the only running backs that I would draft higher than him at that ADP are Jahvid Best and Ryan Mathews, both of whom are being drafted behind Blount over at FF Calculator. I realize Blount does not bring much of a pass-catching element, even if he has spent time practicing that aspect of his game, but he is the feature back in a good Tampa Bay offense. He had a sparkly 5.0 YPC and led the league with a 3.7 yards-after-contact per attempt as a rookie. Getting him as your RB2 in the back end of the third round is just right in PPR leagues.

Thinking about going QBBC this year, what the top 3 QBBC candidates? – @xGUACAMOLEx

Miglio – My favorite “sleeper” Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, and Josh Freeman. These are three guys you can get in the 6th-9th round, though Stafford has been going earlier in mocks lately. You will have everything you need to know about Stafford here. Big Ben averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game (pass TD = 6 points, 20 yards = 1 point) last year on a broken foot, he should be a great QB1. In the 6th or 7th round, that is fantastic value. Josh Freeman led the league in rushing at quarterback last year, yet he curiously did not score a touchdown on the ground. I expect him to rush for a couple of scores this year, as do I expect him to continue progressing as a good fantasy quarterback.

12 team keeper: M Wallace or M Turner? Have R Rice, leaning Wallace. Any strategy with what positions to keep (2 RBs or RB&WR)? – @brian_horn

Miglio – This is a no brainer: keep Mike Wallace. As I have detailed before, Michael Turner is 29 years old with a ton of carries on those legs over the past few years. That screams dynasty sell; or in this case, let someone else snatch him up. The way things are going for Turner – he is being ranked lower and lower – you might be able to grab him again in your league draft.

Usually you would want to keep running backs in a keeper league as they are a more valuable commodity. There is an unusually steep drop-off in fantasy quality at the running back position in later rounds, so having more on your team to begin with can be an advantage. However, Turner's red flags combined with Wallace's youth and upside, mean you should take Wallace in this case.

Ray Rice or McCoy at #7 in 12 team PPR? – @BengalNut

Miglio – It is close, but Rice is the answer here. He has lost all serious competition for carries with the departure of Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain, and he will wind up catching as many balls as Shady McCoy, if not more. His touchdown rate was depressed last season, which should regress positively. About the only negative thing I have to say about Rice is that he has a tough schedule.

Follow Tyler Loechner (@PFF_Loechner) and Alex Miglio (@PFF_Alex) on Twitter.