The New England Patriots selected CB Devin McCourty just two slots before the New York Jets snatched up fellow CB Kyle Wilson in the 2010 NFL Draft. Still, last season McCourty amassed 47 more tackles, 7 interceptions to Wilson’s 0, and 6 more pass deflections. What gives? You don’t have to be Mel Kiper Jr to solve that puzzle – all you had to do was look at the depth chart. It’s not rocket science, but when McCourty plays 1,121 snaps while Wilson plays just 348, the Patriot is going to be more fantasy relevant. The difference between cracking the two-deep and locking up a starting roster spot is massive when it comes to fantasy production.
In the 2011 NFL Draft, 15 defensive players were selected in the 1st round. Of that 15, none of them are guaranteed playing time. There is fierce competition from the other 115 defensive players drafted, along with countless undrafted free agents all looking to somehow crack the starting lineup of their respective teams. As of now, there are 14 rookie defensive players at number 1 on the depth chart for their teams. 45 more defensive rookies are breathing down the necks of the starters on the 2nd team. Who stands a chance? There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but let’s take an early look at who is hoping to become a relevant fantasy contributor when the 2011 regular season rolls along, and who is coming close.
Arizona Cardinals
1st team defense: no rookies; 2nd team: CB Patrick Peterson, LOLB Sam Acho, NT David Carter
Fantasy Implications: It’s only a matter of time before the first round pick out of LSU Patrick Peterson overtakes the current starter at LCB A.J. Jefferson, who only saw 1 snap in all of 2010. When he does, he should be a fantasy contributor with his ability to take any turnover the opposite direction for 6. In the meantime, he should contribute in nickel and dime packages. OLB Sam Acho has (4th round, Texas) a shot to get playing time with the aging Clark Haggans (+1.8) and Joey Porter (-7.6) being the current starters, but don’t expect much fantasy production other than a situational sack. David Carter likely won’t be relevant as a 3-4 nose tackle.
Atlanta Falcons
1st and 2nd teams: no rookies
Fantasy Implications: MLB Akeem Dent is their 3rd round pick from the nearby Georgia Bulldogs so the Falcons have high expectations of him. He may be someone to watch for later on in the season but he’s still behind Curtis Lofton (team-leading 97 tackles, though his PFF grade was -9.9) and Coy Wire (+1.4 in 53 snaps) and stuck with the 3rd stringers. Steer clear of taking him in your IDP draft. The Falcons are a veteran heavy team and it’s not surprising that they don’t have many rookies in their 2-deep after trading most of their draft for WR Julio Jones.
Baltimore Ravens
1st team: no rookies; 2nd team: CB Jimmy Smith
Fantasy Implications: 1st rounder Jimmy Smith (Colorado) is currently behind Chris Carr and Domonique Foxworth in the corner depth chart. With an injury to Foxworth, Smith is getting starting reps in preseason games and he hasn’t fallen flat on his face. It’s still to be determined what happens when his competition is healthy, so keep an eye on Jimmy Smith. He will have the early opportunity to prove himself in multiple DB packages and when all is said and done he might be the CB that Baltimore matches up with the opposing team’s number 1 wideout.
Buffalo Bills
1st team: DE Marcell Dareus; 2nd team: ILB Kelvin Sheppard, CB Aaron Williams
Fantasy Implications: 3-4 defense, 4-3 defense, who knows what the Buffalo Bills are running these days. Either way, Marcell Dareus is proving that he was the rightful #3 overall pick with sacks in each of his first 2 preseason games. Could we see a Suh-like rookie season from Dareus? Probably not. Still, the fact that he’s getting to the quarterback is promising. 2nd rounder Aaron Williams is behind Leodis McKelvin (-0.4) and Terrance McGee (+5.9 in just 322 snaps) but he should see the field plenty in nickel packages as well as spending some time at Free Safety. Kelvin Sheppard, whom I liked coming out of LSU, is behind an Andra Davis that didn’t play a majority of 2010, but is still just someone to be on your watchlist. In dynasty formats, he does have increased value as Davis is set to be a free agent in 2012.
Carolina Panthers
1st team: NT Sione Fua; 2nd team: DT Terrell McClain
Fantasy Implications: The Panthers selected a couple of defensive tackles in the 3rd round, and here they are. The early word is that neither is performing exceedingly well so be cautious about drafting either because the job security most likely isn’t there.
Chicago Bears
1st team: no rookies; 2nd team: DT Stephen Paea, LB J.T. Thomas, FS Chris Conte, MLB Dom DeCicco
Fantasy Implications: Paea was a projected 1st rounder who fell to the 2nd from an injury. But at NT don’t expect huge numbers, especially being only rotational for now. Conte was Chicago’s 3rd rounder but he needs to unseat Major Wright to get noticed. Thomas was a 6th rounder and DeCicco went undrafted, so it’s interesting to see them crack the two-deep but it’s too early to even think about selecting either.
Cincinnati Bengals
1st team: no rookies; 2nd team: OLB Dontay Moch (IR)
Fantasy Implications: Dontay Moch (3rd round pick) is a hybrid outside linebacker who can rush the passer but he broke a bone in his foot and will miss time, though not the whole season as was originally expected. No fantasy relevance and probably not much when he gets back due to the large amount of time missed.
Cleveland Browns
1st team: DE Jabaal Sheard, DT Phil Taylor; 2nd team: CB Buster Skrine, LB Brian Smith
Fantasy Implications: Jabaal Sheard (2nd round pick, Pittsburgh) has his starting spot locked down due to the lack of depth at the position for Cleveland, as does Phil Taylor (taken in the 1st). While Taylor shouldn’t even be considered to be drafted because he’s a lane-stuffer, Sheard has showed a nice motor thus far in the preseason. He is a must-draft in dynasty league formats, as well as a late flier in redraft leagues. The speedy Skrine is currently the 4th corner and Brian Smith is the 6th linebacker on a unit that can move players around to fill in for injuries. Neither currently has fantasy relevance.
Dallas Cowboys
1st and 2nd teams: no rookies
Fantasy Implications: There are no rookies in the two-deep. The only rookie worth mentioning is LB Bruce Carter, who in all probability will start the year on the PUP. He’s a physical freak who may have been a 1st rounder if healthy so keep an eye on him if he enters the fold mid-season. In dynasty formats, he carries very strong value with Bradie James’s contract being up at the end of the season.
Denver Broncos
1st team: SLB Von Miller, FS Rahim Moore; 2nd team: no rookies
Fantasy Implications: In the 2nd preseason game against the Bills, both Von Miller (2nd overall pick) and Rahim Moore (2nd round) stood out. Miller flashed his big play potential with a sack and a tackle for a loss but perhaps more importantly showed that he can also break down and play conventional linebacker with two solo stops. Double digit sacks were likely but increased tackles could make him into an excellent value while your friends use their draft picks early on the big names. Moore, my top ranked Safety going into the draft, showed that he’s more than just a ball-hawk while laying out Bills WR Donald Jones in the 2nd quarter. It looked like a clean shoulder hit but the receiver was defenseless. Nonetheless, the aggression of Moore is promising; he might be a dark-horse worth going with if you need a DB. One noteworthy person missing from the two-deep is the 3rd round MLB Nate Irving, as he is currently behind Joe Mays (+2.4 rating in limited snaps last year) and Mario Haggan (-1.7 overall but a whopping +17.1 in run defense). I liked Irving coming out of North Carolina St. and aside from his current standing, many expect him to have the starting job at some point this season.
Detroit Lions
1st and 2nd team: no rookies
Fantasy Implications: First round pick Nick Fairley can’t catch a break. First, he falls in the draft due to perceived work ethic and character red flags. Now, not only has incumbent Corey Williams (who without penalties graded a studly +15.5 overall last year) shined in the preseason and training camp, he himself has been busy watching from the sidelines while nursing a broken foot. The injury should sideline Nick Fairley until the start of the regular season. With the time missed along with the play of Williams cutting into his playing time, don’t expect Nick Fairley to step in and be fantasy relevant.
Green Bay Packers
1st team: no rookies; 2nd team: ILB D.J. Smith
Fantasy Implications: The 6th round pick, tackling machine D.J. Smith from Appalachian State (500+ tackles in his 4 year career) cracking the 2 deep of the Super Bowl Champions is quite a feat. He is on the outside looking in but if A.J. Hawk or Desmond Bishop get injured, closely monitor how the Packers handle the starter duties.
Houston Texans
1st team: DE J.J. Watt; 2nd team: OLB Brooks Reed
Fantasy Implications: First round pick J.J. Watt, the leader of last year’s Wisconsin defense will see plenty of playing time considering he is already named the starter for Houston. He’s a big end with ability to rush the passer from the 5 technique. He also gets his hands up so he’ll get a fair share of batted balls. Still, no DE in Wade Phillips’s Dallas scheme gathered more than 22 tackles in 2010, so don’t get your hopes up about Watt. 2nd rounder Brooks Reed fits the role of Clay Matthews look-a-like and will battle for the spot opposite super Mario Williams with Connor Barwin, who will be hungry to compete after being sidelined all of 2010 with a dislocated ankle. Reed has all of the tools but never really produced at Arizona, at least not in the way that someone with his skill-set should have. Keep an eye on how he starts off the season and judge from there.
Indianapolis Colts
1st team: no rookies; 2nd team: DT Drake Nevis, SS Joe Lefeged
Fantasy Implications: The competition around 3rd rounder Drake Nevis had an underwhelming season last year. Antonio Johnson (+0.2), Eric Foster (-1.2), and Fili Moala (-5.7) are leaving the door wide open for Nevis to swoop in. The early report is that he is getting plenty of reps with the starters so expect him to contribute but still, don’t count on Nevis being a stats magnet from the DT position. Also, don’t expect Joe Lefeged to play much, as he is behind locks to start at Safety in Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea. Nonetheless, the fact that an undrafted rookie free agent out of Rutgers is already 2nd on the depth chart at SS could make him next in a long line of Colt defensive backs to rise out of nowhere.
Jacksonville Jaguars
1st team: no rookies; 2nd team: FS Chris Prosinski
Fantasy Implications: There’s no doubt that the Jaguars secondary needed help this offseason after allowing opposing quarterbacks the 2nd highest QB rating in the league, 98.5. So it makes sense that they signed FS Dawan Landry and drafted Wyoming FS Chris Prosinski in the 4th round. Landry has the starting spot locked down after having the 4th highest Safety rating in Baltimore for 2010 (+10.5). Opposite of him though, Courtney Greene is working with the 1st team at SS and he didn’t do exceedingly well in 2010 with a -3.8 overall rating, in particular a poor -5.6 rating in coverage. It will be interesting to watch how Jacksonville utilizes the Greene and Chris Prosinski’s best chance to crack the starting lineup may be at the Strong Safety position. That’s all just speculation so wait and see how it plays out before considering the rookie from Wyoming.
Kansas City Chiefs
1st team: no rookies; 2nd team: DE Allen Bailey
Fantasy Implications: There’s not much fantasy relevance here. Allen Bailey, their 3rd rounder out of Miami, is firmly behind Tyson Jackson, Glenn Dorsey, and Wallace Gilberry. Even if he were starting, I wouldn’t expect him to make an impact. It’s also worth mentioning that fellow 3rd round pick OLB Justin Houston (Georgia) is stuck at 3rd on the depth chart behind Andy Studebaker, Cameron Sheffield, Pierre Walters, and the beast that is Tamba Hali. He fell in the draft due to off the field issues so keep an eye on him, but only him if starts to climb the depth chart.
And there you have part one of my first IDP Rookie Report of the season. The depth chart in the preseason is constantly molding, so be on the lookout for changes in order to gain the upper hand on the sleepers in your league. Stay tuned for part 2 with the second half of the league (Miami through Washington).
Questions and comments are welcome. Feel free follow me on Twitter @mikedgator.
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