Fantasy: Number Crunching - 2011 Points-Per-Chance

Last week I gave you the 2011 points-per-snap highlights (and lowlights), and there were not many surprises. Hidden statistics lie elsewhere, though, and this week I dig deeper with what I will broadly term as “point-per-chance”. I say “chance” because the metric is different for each position — attempt for quarterbacks, touch for running backs, and target for receivers and tight ends. This metric paints a different picture than PPS, showing what a player does with his chances rather than overall playing time.

Below you will find tables with the best and worst at each given position. I have included standard and PPR scoring formats, but I have used PPR scoring for ranking purposes. Qualification requirements are posted on a positional basis.

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Quarterbacks
Minimum 250 attempts

Best:

Worst:

Spin: We have our first outlier at the top! Tony Romo breaks the stranglehold the top five quarterbacks had on on the hidden statistics, coming in at 0.55 PPA, just edging out Tim Tebow by a few thousandths of a point. I combined passing and rushing attempts to level the playing field, but as I said Tebow still nearly cracked the top five  as well. Another interesting name in the top ten is Matt Schaub with a 0.52 PPA — if he and Andre Johnson can stay healthy, Schaub might be next year’s Matthew Stafford. It is interesting to note that Jake Locker had a fantastic 0.67 in his limited playing time — should he be named the Tennessee starter, he would be an excellent sleeper pick. On the other end of the spectrum, Sam Bradford graced the bottom five again, this time coming in dead last with his receivers being little help before Brandon Lloyd's arrival. None of the bottom five are big surprises.

Running Backs
Minimum 100 touches

Best:

Worst:

Spin: That is one huge figure for Darren Sproles, dusting the competition by at least 20%. Of course, in standard leagues it is much closer, but still surprising to see him at the top of the heap. It is interesting to see LaDainian the Grey crack the top five here while Shonn Greene happened to be in the bottom ten — it goes to show how much the Jets have to feed Greene for him to produce. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson both landed in the top ten, a good sign for Spiller in particular going into next season as Jackson’s injury and age might have cut his renaissance short. If Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best were not made of glass their lofty PPT numbers would make them great targets for next season. On the downside, Daniel Thomas’ numbers and injury problems paved the way for Reggie Bush’s revival, and yet again two Colts grace the bottom five. Incidentally, Frank Gore and Michael Turner were in the bottom third of this list, shooting a warning flare about spending a high draft pick on them.

Wide Receivers
Minimum 50 targets

Best:

Worst:

Spin: Two Packers head this list, and one of them is not Greg Jennings? James Jones’ presence here is one of those situational anomalies — he produces when he gets on the field, but unfortunately sees the field too little to make a serious fantasy impact. The fact is, while Jordy Nelson topped the list in both PPS and PPT this year, his numbers were inflated by a high touchdown rate that was boosted by some fluke plays. He will be hard-pressed to repeat his fantastic season. Victor Cruz is in a similar boat — while some owners will target him earlier than Hakeem Nicks, the latter is proving why he merits a higher draft pick with a fantastic playoff run. Both Cruz and Nelson are still going to be great draft picks, but their value might be too inflated based on their gaudy numbers. The same could be said about Laurent Robinson after his surprising resurgence depending on where he lands — he is an unrestricted free agent. One interesting name to keep an eye on is Kyle Williams, who would have landed in the top five had he qualified. He is an x-factor when he is on the field, and the 49ers will put him in that position more next year.

That Jonathan Baldwin was at the bottom of this list highlighted just how much of a disappointment he was this season. After losing a fistfight to Thomas Jones, he lost playing time and was not very good outside one big game when he finally did make it onto the field. Greg Little was another disappointing rookie who narrowly avoided the bottom five; look for both to improve if they can get better quarterback play.

Tight Ends
Minimum 50 targets

Best:

Worst:

Spin: Is it any surprise that the Terminator headlines this list? While Jimmy Graham might have topped the PPS metric, Gronkowski was targeted a lot and with great success. Were it not for the qualification threshold, the rest of the top five would be surprise names — Joel Dreessen, Scott Chandler, Anthony Fasano and Tony Scheffler. Dreessen is an intriguing name because he played well in limited duty, and he is an unrestricted free agent. Chandler was the beneficiary of red zone playing time, and Fasano continues to make the most out of his limited opportunities with the Dolphins. No tight end fell further than Marcedes Lewis, and that was evidenced by his dead-last ranking here. After a huge touchdown number in 2010, Lewis managed to score a goose egg last season. Clark is also a free agent this season, and his success was exposed as a product of Peyton Manning’s mastery more than anything this year.

Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_Alex.