NFL Free Agency 2012 is almost upon us.
Fans across the world will be glued to NFL Network, Rotoworld’s News Feed, and especially Twitter to see what move s their favorite team will make. At the same time, Fantasy Footballers will be itching to see where the elite free agents at the offensive skill positions will land. A signing of a Top 5 wide receiver not only impacts the player and team involved, but also the market for other teams and the prospects for the wide receiver’s new teammates.
Today, I’ll be taking a look at the three neediest teams at each of the primary offensive Fantasy Football positions: Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End.
Click here for complete list/ranking of the top free agents at each position (also includes kicker and fullback). You’ll also find each team’s “Need” ranking by the four positions we’ll be looking at today.
Quarterback
Washington Redskins
It’s no secret that the Redskins are badly in need of a quarterback upgrade this off-season. Rex Grossman and John Beck were called upon to handle the load in 2011 and both struggled. Grossman is a capable No. 2 option, but he’s an Unrestricted Free Agent. Beck is under contract for another season, so the Mike Shanahan-favorite is likely to get a shot at the No. 2 gig in 2012. Jonathan Crompton was given a Futures contract, but is a poor bet to land anything more than the No. 3 job.
Potential Targets
Peyton Manning is expected to be available and the Redskins will be among the favorites to land his services. The 2010 acquisition of Donovan McNabb was a disaster, but don’t think Daniel Snyder will be scared off. The Shanahan’s love to throw the ball and Manning will allow them to do just that early and often. If not Manning, Matt Flynn and Robert Griffin III stand out. Flynn will be on the open market and available to the highest bidder. Griffin will more than likely be gone by second overall in the draft, so Washington would need to work out a deal with St. Louis for that pick.
Cleveland Browns
Colt McCoy is clearly not the answer for this team. As a prospect, he wasn’t projected to be an elite NFL quarterback by many draft analysts and he has yet to prove otherwise. The offense around him isn’t great, but he’s been extremely conservative (7.8 avg. depth of target in 2011), showing that he’s more of a game manager than a playmaker. Both McCoy and Seneca Wallace are signed through 2013 and one or both will be back next season, but neither are favorites to start. Thaddeus Lewis will also be in camp, but No. 3 on the depth chart is his best bet.
Potential Targets
Manning is obviously going to be at or near the top of everyone’s list, but it appears that Miami and Washington will be the favorites to land him. That leaves Cleveland targeting Griffin or Flynn. If neither of those pan out, a rookie like Ryan Tannehill or short-term fix like Jason Campbell or Kyle Orton will be in order.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The 10th overall pick in last season’s draft, Blaine Gabbert, took 88% of the Jaguars’ quarterback snaps in his rookie season. He completed a very poor 55% of his Aimed Passes despite a conservative approach. He, of course, was very raw as a rookie and his group of pass catchers was arguably the league’s worst, but it’s clear that the team, at least, needs to bring in some competition. Luke McCown was the No. 2 in 2011, but wasn’t very good in limited action and is an Unrestricted Free Agent. Dan LeFevour was brought in during last season, but isn’t a threat to start quite yet.
Potential Targets
The Jaguars aren’t expected to be in the mix for any big names, but they could be a sleeper if the new ownership decides to get aggressive. The more likely scenario is the acquisition of a tier-two veteran quarterback who can compete with Gabbert. Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, and Jason Campbell jump out. If the team is hoping for more upside, Josh Johnson, Dennis Dixon, or Drew Stanton would make a ton of sense.
Running Back
Cincinnati Bengals
Cedric Benson, an Unrestricted Free Agent, has been the league’s least productive workhorse over the last few seasons and it seems the Bengals are finally ready to move on. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard are both signed for one more year, but they’re better fits as a change of pace and 3rd-down backs, respectively. That leaves a void on early downs, which means the team needs a 15-18 carry back.
Potential Targets
The name atop the list of backs expected to be available is Michael Bush. I’ve been connecting this guy to Cincy since late 2010 and this is their best chance to land a good, young back in his prime. If not Bush, drafting Trent Richardson is a real option with the 17th pick. Other free agents who are potential fits include Peyton Hillis, Jason Snelling, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, none of which have the appeal of Bush/Richardson.
St. Louis Rams
It’s a new regime in St. Louis and rebuilding the rushing attack behind Steven Jackson (will be 29 years old in July) will be a focal point of Jeff Fisher’s gameplan this off-season. Cadillac Williams and Jerious Norwood were both signed last off-season as holdover options, but Williams isn’t expected to return and Norwood is best used as a change of pace back. The team will need to find a pair of backs this off-season that can combine to provide relief if Jackson is injured and also some potential long-term production at the position.
Potential Targets
If the Rams do, in fact, trade out of the No. 2 overall picks, it’s possible they land the 22nd overall pick in the draft. If a guy like Trent Richardson doesn’t fall that far, a guy like Lamar Miller or David Wilson could be a target later in the draft. On the Free Agent front, a change-of-pace/3rd-down back who could handle 12-15 touches if need be will be on the radar. Tim Hightower, Mike Tolbert, and Jason Snelling stand out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Figuring out the Bucs situation is a bit tricky, as a lot depends on what the new coaching staff thinks of LeGarrette Blount. He certainly had his issues in 2011, but still managed 59% of the team’s carries and a 4.4 YPC. Earnest Graham had a big role, especially on passing downs, prior to an injury, but is an Unrestricted Free Agent and may not return. Kregg Lumpkin is a Restricted Free Agent and could be brought back to compete with Mossis Madu for a roster spot. Either way, the team will need to address the position, more than likely with a passing-down back to compliment Blount.
Potential Targets
Justin Forsett fits the bill as a complimentary back, but he isn’t a great candidate for a full load if Blount were to miss time. That being said, don’t be surprised if the Bucs and Rams are battling over the same players. Hightower, Tolbert, and Snelling make sense and are upgrades from Graham.
Wide Receiver
Jacksonville Jaguars
As mentioned earlier, Blaine Gabbert’s crew of pass-catchers was arguably the league’s worst in 2011. The team will need to upgrade the unit this off-season via both free agency and the draft. Mike Thomas is a fine player and will likely return as a starter next season, but he’d be much more productive if he had some help. Drafted last season, Cecil Shorts had a strong camp, but struggled during the regular season. He’s probably the only other wideout on the roster with a great chance of returning. Jarett Dillard, Chastin West, Kassim Osgood, Taylor Price, and Brian Robiskie are all signed through next season and will be in the mix, but don’t be surprised if two or three of those guys are cut loose.
Potential Targets
Justin Blackmon will be a target if he makes it to seventh overall. The Free Agent class is extremely deep this year, which bodes well for the Jaguars. Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem, and Mario Manningham will all be in the mix. Thomas has been used mainly as an underneath target, so a player like Manningham or Meachem would provide Gabbert (or whomever is under center) with a reliable deep threat. They’re more realistic targets than Jackson/Bowe.
Minnesota Vikings
Much how the Jaguars had Mike Thomas and little else in 2011, the Vikings had Percy Harvin and little else. Michael Jenkins was the team’s top wideout until suffering a season-ending injury and ineffective Bernard Berrian was cut loose mid-season. That left Devin Aromashodu, Greg Camarillo, Stephen Burton, and Emmanuel Arceneaux with a big load of snaps. Harvin and Jenkins are both under contract through 2013, but Aromashodu and Camarillo are Unrestricted Free Agents. Harvin is locked into a regular workload, but Jenkins is certainly replaceable and is a better fit as a No. 3, rather than a 60-snap guy.
Potential Targets
Justin Blackmon could be a target at No. 3 overall, but the deep Free Agent class could allow them to fill another need at that spot. Deep threats Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Lloyd, Pierre Garcon, Robert Meachem, and Mario Manningham are all fits. Minnesota isn’t going to be a preferred destination for a lot of these guys, but fortunately for Minnesota, there’s more supply than demand. If one of the aforementioned players doesn’t pan out, Laurent Robinson, Plaxico Burress, and Jerome Simpson would be on the radar.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams have a major need at the offensive skill positions. Number two on the running back list, they land third at wide receiver. Interestingly, they have a need here despite spending two early picks on wide receivers last season (Greg Salas, Austin Pettis). They also snatched up pass-catching tight end Lance Kendricks. That being said, Brandon Lloyd, Danny Amendola, and Mark Clayton are all Unrestricted Free Agents. All three have the potential to return, but none are a slam dunk. Lloyd will certainly get some attention on the open market. Amendola has done an admirable job in the slot, but missed most of 2011 with an injury and Salas/Pettis have a future in the slot. Clayton has missed most of the last two seasons due to injury. That leaves only Salas, Pettis, fragile Danario Alexander, and underwhelming Brandon Gibson as the current unit. If the team wants Sam Bradford to show his true potential, an upgrade is a must.
Potential Targets
If the Rams stick with the second overall pick, it’s likely to be Justin Blackmon or offensive lineman Matt Kalil. Even if they swap down to the fourth or sixth pick, it’s possible Blackmon is still available. Don’t be surprised if they land his services. If that pans out, they won’t need to make a big splash in Free Agency, especially with the possession receiver department already covered (Pettis/Salas), and with a strong duo of tight ends in place (Mike Hoomanawanui / Kendricks). As mentioned, though, it’s a buyer’s market for wide receivers. The Rams have already been connected to Vincent Jackson, but they’ll certainly look into the other available big names, like Bowe, Colston, Garcon, and, of course, Lloyd.
Tight End
New York Giants
The Giants make this list for the second season in a row. Last year, Kevin Boss left for Oakland as a free agent, leaving the team scrambling at the position. Ben Patrick was signed to fill in before abruptly taking a short-term retirement. Travis Beckum was next in line, but was injured and now has a torn ACL, putting his 2012 in jeopardy. Jake Ballard was a pleasant surprise at the position in 2011, but also tore his ACL in the Superbowl. That leaves FB/TE Bear Pascoe as the only real threat to make the team as a tight end in 2012. Christian Hopkins and Ryan Purvis have Futures contracts and are the only other depth on the roster.
Potential Targets
Eli Manning doesn’t make big use of the tight end in the passing game, but it’s enough that the player can’t be strictly a blocker. Unfortunately, there won’t be many – if any – slam dunks available via Free Agency. Jermichael Finley and Fred Davis will likely be signed to extensions or Franchise Tagged. That leaves Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen, Martellus Bennett, and John Carlson as the best available. Former Giants’ Jeremy Shockey and Visanthe Shiancoe are also on the market. Chris Cooley and Dallas Clark could be cap casualties and could enter the mix. Among the top available rookies, an in-line option like Coby Fleener (Ballard played in-line 83% of the time in 2011) is a better bet than a Joker like Orson Charles.
Chicago Bears
With Mike Martz now out of the picture as the team’s offensive coordinator, you have to imagine the team is regretting trading Greg Olsen to the Panthers last off-season. The Bears are now left with Unrestricted Free Agent Kellen Davis atop the depth chart. Matt Spaeth, mainly a blocking threat, and FB/TE Kyle Adams are signed through 2013, but neither is a serious threat as a pass-catcher.
Potential Targets
With Martz gone, the tight end will see more action in the passing game…assuming the right personnel is in place. Much like with the Giants, Jeremy Shockey, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dreessen make a lot of sense. My favorite dot to connect here is Martellus Bennett, as the Bears have a reputation of signing former Cowboys. Bennett fits the bill as a good blocker with a ton of unused potential as a pass-catcher.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins badly wanted a big-time pass catching tight end last off-season (lost out to Carolina in the Shockey sweepstakes), but they ended up settling back in with Anthony Fasano and rookie H-Back Charles Clay. This off-season, expect a bigger push. Fasano was serviceable in 2011, but there’s room for improvement and he’s entering a contract season. Jeron Mastrud and Will Yeatman are on the roster, but both are blockers.
Potential Targets
Peyton Manning has already been connected to Miami as a possible quarterback upgrade. If that happens, Jacob Tamme or potential cap casualty Dallas Clark make sense. Shockey is also back on the market and could be back on their radar. A rookie Joker like Charles seems unlikely after the team snatched up Charles Clay last season, but it’s possible if Fasano sticks to help out with some blocking.
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