Fantasy: Julio Jones or A.J. Green?

One of the biggest gambles in fantasy football is drafting a second-year player who performed well in his rookie season. He may improve with age, but he may also regress—it’s so difficult to tell.

So whom do you pick up in your 2012 fantasy draft: Julio Jones or A.J. Green? Both had excellent rookie seasons in 2011, with Cincinnati’s Green ending the year with 153 fantasy points and the Atlanta Falcons’ Jones with 147.5 in most standard leagues. Both should be early-round targets in this year’s fantasy drafts, but if you want the most bang for your buck, you need to look beyond the most obvious statistics and delve a little deeper.

Jones had 54 receptions for 959 yards and eight scores last season, while Green had 65 catches, for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns. Jones did so while playing in 13 of 16 games while Green missed just one. Both are poised to have excellent second seasons, but one will fare better than the other, and it’s important to choose the receiver who will consistently produce for your team week after week.

Jones had 719 offensive snaps last year, compared to 919 for Green, but their catch rates are almost identical. In Jones’ 91 targets, he caught 54 passes, catching 59.3 percent of balls thrown to him. Green was targeted 111 times, but pulled down only 65 of them, for a 58.6 catch percentage. All in all, Green had more passes thrown his way but came down with the ball just as often as Jones. The Atlanta rookie had more drops in 2011, with eight to Green’s five. Four passes thrown Green’s way ended up intercepted while only two thrown to Jones were picked off, however, which is a testament to both Jones’ awareness as well as to the talents of his quarterback.

Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is clearly the more experienced passer, having been in the league longer than Cinncinati’s Andy Dalton, who was also a rookie in 2011. Dalton’s performance in his first season was well beyond expectations, but no one knows if he can continue that success into his sophomore year. As Dalton goes, Green goes, which gives drafting Green a greater inherent risk than drafting Jones, who has a well-established quarterback throwing him passes.

The biggest argument in favor of Jones over Green, however, can be found in 2011’s numbers. Look at their deep passing statistics: Green was targeted for deep passes 33 times and caught 16 of them, for 578 yards and five scores while Jones had 22 targets deep, caught eight of them, had just 258 yards as a result and scored only two touchdowns. That stat set seems to say that Green is a far more valuable deep-passing target, and thus an all-around more valuable fantasy wide receiver than Jones. But, in fact, the opposite is the case.

Jones’ value is in yards after catch. Green is a deep-threat target, by design, but Jones has the benefit of being the No. 2 receiver behind Roddy White, therefore seeing single-coverage more often and, as a result, is able to get open in shorter-yardage situations. His speed and elusiveness then takes over, and that’s why Jones had a total of 421 yards after catch (7.8 YAC/reception) in 2011 to Green’s 284 (4.4 YAC/reception).

Unless the Bengals can draft or pick up a free agent receiver to draw coverage away from Green, his greatest value remains in the deep-passing game, where his height and physicality makes him a mismatch. In shorter throws, however, he can be covered more successfully, meaning that Green is a big-play-or-bust kind of wideout to Jones’ more finesse role. The former Crimson Tide receiver's ability to put up greater yards after the catch is the biggest reason why he had five games with over 100 receiving yards in 2011 while Green, who played in two more games, had four.

Ultimately, both Jones and Green are worthwhile fantasy pickups this year, and should both go around the middle of the second round in most leagues. However, if you’re trying to decide which of the two to target, I suggest going for Jones rather than Green. He’s a more well-rounded receiver with a more experienced quarterback throwing to him, and that’s just enough to nudge him ahead of Green.