Now that the early free agency rush has finally settled down, we are able to assess the fantasy landscape. There is no denying that it has shifted dramatically over the past 7 days. Each individual transaction has a fantasy impact, as one move often will positively or negatively affect the surrounding teammates’ stock in fantasy. This is especially relevant when judging individual defensive players. Plug one elite player into a defense and he could make the players around him better, but he can sometimes make a teammate’s fantasy production worse. A solid IDP can lose value when their team adds more competition in racking up the tackles or sacks. It’s cannibalization at its finest. Plus, if you’re now watching from the bench because someone took your job, you won’t be racking up much of anything. Let me tell you who the IDP winners and losers are at this point in the offseason.
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Winners
LB Paul Posluszny, Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year, Paul Posluszny was a solid fantasy contributor. He finished the 2010 season 28th overall in fantasy points and 17th for linebackers. Still, Posluszny’s 103 tackles/ 48 assists came while being a bit of a guinea pig on a Buffalo team that could not make up their mind on where to stick him – left inside backer, right inside backer, weakside, middle, strongside, again to right inside linebacker. In Jacksonville, Posluszny will be the middle linebacker, period. A little consistency should help out Posluszny this year, along with a steady diet of Chris Johnson and Arian Foster.
LB D’Qwell Jackson, Cleveland Browns
Perhaps one of the more under-the-radar fantasy developments is involving D’Qwell Jackson- the man who led the NFL in tackles for the 2008 season (95 solo, 59 assists) but now has turned into a ghost after back to back season ending injuries. In a surprise move, the Cleveland Browns front office did not sign a single free agent linebacker. Instead, they are going with Chris Gocong, Scott Fujita, and the aforementioned Jackson to lead the unit. Still, the news that is perhaps the most promising to the stock of Jackson is that he has surprisingly been plugged into the starting middle linebacker spot by coordinator Dick Jauron instead of the incumbent ILB Chris Gocong (who will man the weakside spot). Playing behind a 660 pound wall of Ahtyba Rubin and Phil Taylor, expect number 52 to have his jersey clean. If D’Qwell Jackson can stay healthy, he could be a value pick in your fantasy drafts.
DT Albert Haynesworth, New England Patriots
I can’t help myself; I am buying into the media hype. Albert Haynesworth was virtually inexistent last year when it comes to fantasy value. That’s what happens when a guy is unmotivated, unwanted, and out of place. How Albert Haynesworth even finished the 2010 season with 13 tackles, 3 assists, 2.5 sacks, and 3 tackles for a loss while playing dead on the ground is beyond me. That right there is the floor for him, pun intended. Expect something closer to the 41 solo tackles, 10 assists, and 8.5 sacks that Albert Haynesworth had when he cared in 2008 for Tennessee. Besides, with Vince Wilfork occupying all 5 offensive linemen (slight exaggeration) Haynesworth will find a way to get himself on the stat sheet.
Philadelphia Eagles Defenders
It’s hard to pick out one individual person who benefited most from Howie Roseman handling the offseason like a fantasy football manager. One obvious winner is some guy named Nnamdi Asomugha. In Oakland his job was to lock down one side of the field, evident by the 29 targets, 13 catches, 185 yards, 0 TDs he allowed on the season. You already knew that, though. Now in Philadelphia, there will be no Stanford Routt (targeted 99 times, 42 receptions allowed, 629 yards, 4 TDs) for defenses to pick on. Heck, Asomugha might get a pick every now and then. He’s still not a fantasy stud, maybe not even an average fantasy guy, but he should at least be more than 567th overall in fantasy points. Also benefitting from the addition of Nnamdi and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are the pass rushers. The pair of newcomers Jason Babin (14 sacks in 2010) and Cullen Jenkins (8 sacks at a 3-4 DE, how does that happen?), along with the juggernaut that is Trent Cole (pressure on 15.2% of pass plays) should get more than their fair share of coverage sacks this season. Plus, the Eagles offense is explosive and should put Philly ahead early in a handful of games. Expect many pass rushing opportunities against offenses trying to play catch-up.
LB Jonathan Vilma, New Orleans Saints
A little known fact is that Jonathan Vilma had an off 2010 season. Actually, off is an understatement. The former Hurricane finished the season grading -17.1, 50th out of 50 inside linebackers who played at least 25% of their teams snaps. A large majority of that poor grade is due to his -10.6 run defense rating. It’s tough to pile it all on Vilma though when the hogs up front (Sedrick Ellis, Remi Ayodele, Anthony Hargrove and Jimmy Wilkerson) aren’t exactly dominating the line of scrimmage. In steps Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers. This new 675+ pound wall should protect Jonathan Vilma much better this year. He still managed to finish the year 54th in fantasy points, so expect that to improve.
Losers
DE Ray Edwards, Atlanta Falcons
While Ray Edwards is escaping just in time from a bad situation in Minnesota and should win quite a few more games in Atlanta, Edwards is far from what Charlie Sheen calls “winning.” One reason for Ray Edwards to feel underwhelmed is the lack of interest in his services this offseason. Whereas Charles Johnson of the Carolina Panthers racked up a big payday of 12 million a year, with Edwards cashing in only 6 million a year he has to feel like he got the short end of the stick. Once he gets to Atlanta and realizes that there aren’t two big boys with the last name “Williams” on the back of their jerseys beside him, he might not feel much better if he’s hoping for some serious fantasy production. While it’s no knock on Jonathan Babineaux, Vance Walkers, and Cory Peters to say that they’re not the Williams Wall, they’re not, and Ray Edwards should see a drop in production because of this.
Houston Texans Defenders
This is a strange case of a loser in the offseason. I am probably the first person on the planet to say that the Houston Texans additions (Jonathan Joseph, Danieal Manning, a healthy DeMeco Ryans, one of the best defensive coordinator in the business Wade Phillips, and their first 5 draft picks, all to a defense which ranked 30th overall) make them losers. Still, in terms of fantasy it is true. It’s almost getting to the point where the defense is getting too good for one individual player to shine. Compare two defenses, Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Last year, offenses ran the ball on the Buffalo Bills a league high 571 times. Why? Because they could. Meanwhile, the stout Steelers defenders were run on a league low 333. That’s 238 less opportunities for Steelers defenders to get a tackle, the bread and butter of fantasy production. This is not to say that the Houston Texans are becoming as good as the Pittsburgh Steelers defense, but you don’t get many chances to rack up the stat sheet when your defense causes a 3 and out.
DE Osi Umenyiora, New York Giants
Osi Umenyiora hasn’t had a great offseason so far. The victim of a contract which was top heavy and paid him in early years, Umenyiora now is disgruntled about it. Well then, maybe don’t sign a top heavy contract next time? To make matters worse, he has been missing practice time. I don’t have the inside scoop on the New York coaches, but I’m not sure that bodes well for their perceptions of Umenyiora. It’s probably also not smart of him to draw unwanted attention to himself when Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, and 2nd year stud Jason Pierre-Paul are competing for more playing time. Umenyiora had a great 2010 season, finishing the year 58th in fantasy points for defenders. But when you look closely at his stats, the thing that pops out is 10 forced fumbles. Ten! That is an incredible number, but it’s not the type of number that you can depend on year in and year out. Expect a drop in Osi Umenyiora’s fantasy production and possibly even playing time.
DE Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings
Jared Allen had a good 2010 season, finishing with 11 sacks and 2 forced fumbles, along with a solid 45 tackles. This was good enough to help him finish a solid 159th in fantasy points scored. Still, it’s worth pointing out that 2 interceptions, 1 taken for a touchdown isn’t something that should be banked on for an end. Unlike Ray Edwards, Jared Allen hasn’t gotten out of Minnesota in time. Pat Williams’s departure will leave a huge gap in the defense, as will the loss of Ray Edwards limiting the ability of TEs and RBs to double up on Allen. It’s tough to doubt Jared Allen but it’s always a tough sell to rely on a defensive end’s production going up when they lose two key defensive linemen around them, especially Pro Bowl caliber ones such as Pat Williams and Ray Edwards.
S Craig Dahl, St. Louis Rams
Most people in St. Louis were happy with the addition of Quintin Mikell, and understandably so. Still, with the signing of the man who graded out as the best safety in football last season (+17.0) not everybody is smiling, in particular Craig Dahl. That should be expected when you lose your starting job. A 5th year veteran out of North Dakota State, Dahl was one of the biggest fantasy surprises of the year, finishing 50th in points while racking up 87 solo tackles, 11 assists, and 2 interceptions. ‘Twas a good ride while it lasted Craig Dahl, you shall be missed. Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on Dahl if an injury arises in Quintin Mikell or James Butler.
So there you have it. Who do you feel are some of the biggest IDP winners and losers so far this offseason? Feel free to comment below or follow me via twitter @mikedgator!
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