IDP Stock Market looks at IDP players that are being overvalued and undervalued based on our advanced NFL statistics. If you’re looking for the sell-high or buy-low IDP candidates for your fantasy roster, this is the article for you.
Buy
Elvis Dumervil – DE – Denver Broncos
After suffering a preseason injury and missing the entire 2010 season, Elvis Dumervil was looking poised to return with another big year in 2011 after leading the NFL in sacks in 2009 with 17. An early injury seemed to derail his 2011 season before it got going. Despite only missing 2 games, ‘Doom’ did not look as effective as in previous years, tallying only 2 QB hits and 16 pressures before week 9. Since then, a fully fit Dumervil has looked much more effective, recording 11 sacks (including 1 in each game), 4 QB hits and a further 11 QB pressures.
Hold
David Hawthorne – LB – Seattle Seahawks
A highly touted sleeper during the 2011 preseason, Seahawks LB David Hawthorne is another player who has failed to live up to some pretty high expectations this season. Although he ranks 20th at the LB position with 126 points, his fantasy owners will be disappointed as he was drafted with the potential to break out as an LB1. Despite this, it’s important to remember this was Hawthorne’s first full season as starter, and in only his 3rd season in the NFL he has a lot of room for improvement. He has also flashed some of the big play potential that made him such a highly sought after sleeper, recording 3 interceptions (1 TD) and a sack. With a full offseason with the starters under his belt for 2012, Hawthorne still makes for a solid LB2 with upside next season.
Sell
Brian Cushing – LB – Houston Texans
In the preseason I was really high on Brian Cushing, and felt that his move to ILB would benefit him and allow him to move into the elite fantasy linebackers. Unfortunately that hasn’t happened, as Cushing currently sits 24th among LB’s with 67 solo tackles, 31 assists and 3 sacks and 2 interceptions, totaling 121 fantasy points. It’s easy to blame his lack of elite fantasy production on a new defensive scheme for the Texans, and a new position for Cushing. However, PFF advanced stats show Cushing has actually been among the elite in his level of play in 2011, ranking 4th among ILB’s with a +23.3 overall grade. It’s feasible that with a full season of experience under his belt in the new scheme, Cushing could improve his fantasy output. But with young playmakers Connor Barwin (+11.9 since week 11) and J.J. Watt (+19.3) emerging, along with established stars like DeMeco Ryan and with Mario Williams returning from injury, Cushing could be facing stiff competition for fantasy points from his defensive teammates. With so many stars among the Texans defense, there may not be enough to feed everyone and Cushing could find his fantasy value capped as a result, however well he plays.
Kyle Arrington – CB – New England Patriots
Patriots corner Kyle Arrington has been enjoying a breakout fantasy season in 2011, ranking 5th among CB’s with 132 points. Despite a +5.2 overall grade from PFF, +3.9 of this has come in run support. Although his pass coverage grade is also currently in positive figures (+1.1), much of this comes from two games against the Bills and Jets (+3.7 & +2.3). Over the last 4 games, Arrington has looked much more exposed in coverage (-2.9), allowing 20 of the 30 passes thrown in his direction to be completed. With the Patriots pass D among the worst in the league, a reshuffled secondary is likely in the pipeline before the 2012 season, and Arrington may find himself out of a job.
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