As we get set for free agency in about a week's time, a big part of how the whole process will play out is the franchise tag. All in all, 21 of the 32 NFL teams applied the franchise tag to a player. We'll investigate some of the franchised players and potential ramifications on the crop of free agents at that position as well.
Quarterback
The only franchised quarterback this year is Drew Brees of the Saints. While this was technically the exclusive tag (meaning Brees can't negotiate with other teams, whereas non-exclusive tag players can at a hefty price to the other time), it still means Brees isn't going anywhere.
What's more interesting here is that reports are coming out that Brees is furious with the tag and may consider potential action. We've seen countless players threaten to hold out, etc, only to come to terms on a long-term deal, so if I'm a Saints fan, I'm not too worried yet. The Saints know a downgrade to Chase Daniel is massive, and Brees knows he isn't getting any younger and to play ball.
For fantasy purposes, Brees is still going to be a top-tier QB, though the losses of Marques Colston and Robert Meachem could hurt him a tad. I've never been a fan of drafting a quarterback early, but he's still a top talent in an aerial system.
The only other QB who was under consideration for the tag was Matt Flynn, and that didn't happen, meaning he's going somewhere else. Likely destinations seems to be the Dolphins, Browns, Seahawks or Redskins, though you never know what team could creep out of nowhere.
Flynn has a fairly small sample size to go off of, but he performed well enough in both auditions. In 2011, he lit up the hapless Lions secondary in week 17 for six touchdowns, and registered a 70.5% completion percentage in that game despite 5 dropped passes. In 2010, he had a three-touchdown performance against New England. I'm still wary of overpaying for a guy with such a small sample size again bad secondaries (Kevin Kolb, anyone?), but someone will. Flynn will likely be a QB2 in any format unless he gets some serious playmakers.
There is not much to say about Peyton Manning, as we all knew he was as good as gone months ago. My guess is still the Dolphins or Cardinals there.
Wide Receiver
Stevie Johnson signed a longterm deal; Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson, and Wes Welker were franchised; and Mike Wallace was tendered as a 1st round RFA by the Steelers. What I'm trying to say is Vincent Jackson is about to make a boatload of money. He'll be the hot commodity on the FA market, and though he says he's willing to take a hometown discount for the Chargers, we'll see what happens when the offers come in.
Marques Colston and Brandon Lloyd are the other beneficiaries of the WR tagging and signings. Heck, even the middle-tier guys like Mario Manningham, Robert Meachem and Pierre Garcon could benefit. A few guesses: Wallace gets signed by the Ravens, Vincent Jackson goes to the Bears, Colston goes to the 49ers, Lloyd goes to the Patriots or Rams.
One of the underlying fantasy stories here is that the Saints are losing their (arguably) top two receivers. That, of course, means Lance Moore could be a serious value pick in your draft unless his ADP starts skyrocketing. It also means Jimmy Graham should continue to see a truckload of targets (and double teams). Darren Sproles should also continue to be a nice pick in PPR leagues.
Of course, if Randy Moss ends up signing with the Saints after these reports of amazing workouts, he could be a serious value pick unless his ADP goes nuts. He'd also dampen the outlook on Moore just a bit.
If my guesses hold true, Colston's value goes down a bit, Jackson's value stays about the same, Wallace's value stays about the same, and Lloyd's value would be totally inconsistent week to week on the Patriots with much more boom/bust going on. After all, he'd be competing with two of the best tight ends in the league and likely Wes Welker for targets. I'd actually say Lloyd's fantasy value would hold better on the Rams, since consistency is king often times in H2H leagues. Consider this: when Lloyd moved to the Rams last season, he averaged 10.2 targets per game. On a per-snap basis, Lloyd averaged a target every 5.3 snaps, which was 3rd best in the league behind Antonio Brown (5.2 snaps) and Percy Harvin (5.26 snaps).
The Colts should also be interesting, as Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon look like they're leaving. Austin Collie is probably way down in the dumps in ADP, and could be in for a semi-bounceback season. If Dallas Clark stays healthy, there's also potential there as a bounceback candidate, though he'll never reach the heights he did a few years ago. Hey, with that terrible running game and team, Andrew Luck‘s gotta throw to someone, right?
Running Back
Ray Rice and Matt Forte were franchised, Arian Foster signed a 5 year deal (a great value for Houston, I might add), and Marshawn Lynch signed a four-year deal. What that means is the running back market this year is pretty weak.
The top guys are Michael Bush, Mike Tolbert, Ryan Grant, Peyton Hillis, Cedric Benson and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Not exactly RB1 names. Bush is probably the guy with the most talent, but he wore down during the stretch run last year, which could be a flag. From Weeks 1 through 11, Bush averaged 4.0 yards per carry. From Week 12 onwards, that went down to 3.1. His yards after contact per attempt went from 2.36 to 2.16 in the same span. It wasn't a monster dropoff, but enough to give pause, especially considering the defenses he played weren't stellar. I think he'll go to the Bengals or Browns, but if Green-Ellis leaves New England, I think the Patriots could be a dark horse team for his services as a more bruising back if the price is right.
I'm avoiding Cedric Benson like the plague as he relies on volume, while the rest of the guys purely depend on the situation they land in, as with most running backs these days.
As far as departure beneficiaries, Taiwan Jones, James Starks, Ryan Mathews and Stevan Ridley seem like the most likely candidates for a bump in year over year value. Mathews is entrenched as an RB1, Ridley could make a low-end RB2 run if he's given enough touches, Starks is a flex non-PPR type guy because of TD vulturing, and Jones's value is solid if/when Darren McFadden gets hurt. I also think Shane Vereen could be a really deep sleeper candidate if New England decides to run with Ridley/Vereen/lesser name.
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